Detection histories for eight species of Amazona parrots in Venezuela during the NeoMaps bird surveys in 2010

Documenting changes in distribution is necessary for understanding species' response to environmental changes, but data on species distributions are heterogeneous in accuracy and resolution. Combining different data sources and methodological approaches can fill gaps in knowledge about the dynamic processes driving changes in species-rich, but data-poor regions. We combined recent bird survey data from the Neotropical Biodiversity Mapping Initiative (NeoMaps) with historical distribution records to estimate potential changes in the distribution of eight species of Amazon parrots in Venezuela. Using environmental covariates and presence-only data from museum collections and the literature, we first used maximum likelihood to fit a species distribution model (SDM) estimating a historical maximum probability of occurrence for each species. We then used recent, NeoMaps survey data to build single-season occupancy models (OM) with the same environmental covariates, as well as with time- and effort-dependent detectability, resulting in estimates of the current probability of occurrence. We finally calculated the disagreement between predictions as a matrix of probability of change in the state of occurrence. Our results suggested negative changes for the only restricted, threatened species, Amazona barbadensis, which has been independently confirmed with field studies. Two of the three remaining widespread species that were detected, Amazona amazonica, Amazona ochrocephala, also had a high probability of negative changes in northern Venezuela, but results were not conclusive for Amazona farinosa. The four remaining species were undetected in recent field surveys; three of these were most probably absent from the survey locations (Amazona autumnalis, Amazona mercenaria and Amazona festiva), while a fourth (Amazona dufresniana) requires more intensive targeted sampling to estimate its current status. Our approach is unique in taking full advantage of available, but limited data, and in detecting a high probability of change even for rare and patchily-distributed species. However, it is presently limited to species meeting the strong assumptions required for maximum-likelihood estimation with presence-only data, including very high detectability and representative sampling of its historical distribution.

Three species distribution models for the marine diatom Fragilariopsis kerguelensis of the Southern Ocean, links to NetCDF files

Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

Experimental data on photophysiology and growth rates of Pararotalia calcariformata

The eastern Mediterranean is a hotspot of biological invasions. Numerous species of Indo-pacific origin have colonized the Mediterranean in recent times, including tropical symbiont-bearing foraminifera. Among these is the species Pararotalia calcariformata. Unlike other invasive foraminifera, this species has been discovered only two decades ago and is restricted to the eastern Mediterranean coast. Combining ecological, genetic and physiological observations, we attempt to explain the recent invasion of this species in the Mediterranean Sea. Using morphological and genetic data, we confirm the species attribution to P. calcariformata McCulloch 1977 and identify its symbionts as a consortium of diatom species dominated by Minutocellus polymorphus. We document photosynthetic activity of its endosymbionts using Pulse Amplitude Modulated Fluorometry and test the effects of elevated temperatures on growth rates of asexual offspring. The culturing of asexual offspring for 120 days shows a 30-day period of rapid growth followed by a period of slower growth. A subsequent 48-day temperature sensitivity experiment indicates a similar developmental pathway and high growth rate at 28°C, whereas an almost complete inhibition of growth was observed at 20°C and 35°C. This indicates that the offspring of this species may have lower tolerance to cold temperatures than what would be expected for species native to the Mediterranean. We expand this hypothesis by applying a Species Distribution Model (SDM) based on modern occurrences in the Mediterranean using three environmental variables: irradiance, turbidity and yearly minimum temperature. The model reproduces the observed restricted distribution and indicates that the range of the species will drastically expand westwards under future global change scenarios. We conclude that P. calcariformata established a population in the Levant because of the recent warming in the region. In line with observations from other groups of organisms, our results indicate that continued warming of the eastern Mediterranean will facilitate the invasion of more tropical marine taxa into the Mediterranean, disturbing local biodiversity and ecosystem structure.

Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

Asian green mussels (Perna viridis) transplanted between Jakarta Bay and Lada Bay, West Java, Indonesia (April 2012 - November 2013)

The Asian green mussel Perna viridis is tolerant to environmental stress, but its robustness varies between populations from habitats that differ in quality. So far, it is unclear whether local adaptations through stressinduced selection or phenotypic plasticity are responsible for these inter-population differences. We tested for the relevance of both mechanisms by comparing survival under hypoxia in mussels that were transplanted from an anthropogenically impacted (Jakarta Bay, Indonesia) to a natural habitat (Lada Bay, Indonesia) and vice versa. Mussels were retrieved 8 weeks after transplantation and exposed to hypoxia in the laboratory. Additional hypoxia tests were conducted with juvenile mussels collected directly from both sites. To elucidate possible relationships between habitat quality and mussel tolerance, we monitored concentrations of inorganic nutrients, temperature, dissolved oxygen, salinity, phytoplankton density and the mussels' body condition index (BCI) for 20 months before, during and after the experiments. Survival under hypoxia depended mainly on the quality of the habitat where the mussels lived before the hypoxia tests and only to a small degree on their site of origin. Furthermore, stress tolerance was only higher in Jakarta than in Lada Bay mussels when the BCIs were substantially higher, which in turn correlated with the phytoplankton densities. We explain why phenotypic plasticity and high BCIs are more likely the causes of populationspecific differences in hypoxia tolerance in P. viridis than stress-induced selection for robust genotypes. This is relevant to understanding the role of P. viridis as mariculture organism in eutrophic ecosystems and invasive species in the (sub)tropical world.