Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Analysis of manganese nodules in lakes of Scotland

During the "Challenger" Deep-Sea Exploring Expedition a great many peculiar-looking manganese nodules or concretions were dredged from the floor of the ocean at great depths, chiefly in the Red Clay areas of the Pacific. In the present paper we propose to point out the distribution of the oxides of manganese in the geological series of rocks, in fresh and sea water, and in marine deposits, with special reference to our explorations in the lochs of the west of Scotland; to give an account of investigations undertaken to ascertain the source of the manganese present in marine deposits in the form of the higher oxides, and thereafter to discuss the various views that have been advanced to explain the formation and distribution of manganese concretions in marine deposits in general.