Model results of ocean physical field of the reference state and the targets in NetCDF format

In a feasibility study, the potential of proxy data for the temperature and salinity during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, about 19 000 to 23 000 years before present) in constraining the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) with a general ocean circulation model was explored. The proxy data were simulated by drawing data from four different model simulations at the ocean sediment core locations of the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean surface (MARGO) project, and perturbing these data with realistic noise estimates. The results suggest that our method has the potential to provide estimates of the past strength of the AMOC even from sparse data, but in general, paleo-sea-surface temperature data without additional prior knowledge about the ocean state during the LGM is not adequate to constrain the model. On the one hand, additional data in the deep-ocean and salinity data are shown to be highly important in estimating the LGM circulation. On the other hand, increasing the amount of surface data alone does not appear to be enough for better estimates. Finally, better initial guesses to start the state estimation procedure would greatly improve the performance of the method. Indeed, with a sufficiently good first guess, just the sea-surface temperature data from the MARGO project promise to be sufficient for reliable estimates of the strength of the AMOC.

The effect of elevated CO2 and increased temperature on in vitro fertilization success and initial embryonic development of single male:female crosses of broad-cast spawning corals at mid- and high-latitude locations

The impact of global climate change on coral reefs is expected to be most profound at the sea surface, where fertilization and embryonic development of broadcast-spawning corals takes place. We examined the effect of increased temperature and elevated CO2 levels on the in vitro fertilization success and initial embryonic development of broadcast-spawning corals using a single male:female cross of three different species from mid- and high-latitude locations: Lyudao, Taiwan (22° N) and Kochi, Japan (32° N). Eggs were fertilized under ambient conditions (27 °C and 500 µatm CO2) and under conditions predicted for 2100 (IPCC worst case scenario, 31 °C and 1000 µatm CO2). Fertilization success, abnormal development and early developmental success were determined for each sample. Increased temperature had a more profound influence than elevated CO2. In most cases, near-future warming caused a significant drop in early developmental success as a result of decreased fertilization success and/or increased abnormal development. The embryonic development of the male:female cross of A. hyacinthus from the high-latitude location was more sensitive to the increased temperature (+4 °C) than the male:female cross of A. hyacinthus from the mid-latitude location. The response to the elevated CO2 level was small and highly variable, ranging from positive to negative responses. These results suggest that global warming is a more significant and universal stressor than ocean acidification on the early embryonic development of corals from mid- and high-latitude locations.

Mesozooplankton community development at elevated CO2

The increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere caused by burning fossil fuels leads to increasing pCO2 and decreasing pH in the world ocean. These changes may have severe consequences for marine biota, especially in cold-water ecosystems due to higher solubility of CO2. However, studies on the response of mesozooplankton communities to elevated CO2 are still lacking. In order to test whether abundance and taxonomic composition change with pCO2, we have sampled nine mesocosms, which were deployed in Kongsfjorden, an Arctic fjord at Svalbard, and were adjusted to eight CO2 concentrations, initially ranging from 185 µatm to 1420 µatm. Vertical net hauls were taken weekly over about one month with an Apstein net (55 µm mesh size) in all mesocosms and the surrounding fjord. In addition, sediment trap samples, taken every second day in the mesocosms, were analysed to account for losses due to vertical migration and mortality. The taxonomic analysis revealed that meroplanktonic larvae (Cirripedia, Polychaeta, Bivalvia, Gastropoda, and Decapoda) dominated in the mesocosms while copepods (Calanus spp., Oithona similis, Acartia longiremis and Microsetella norvegica) were found in lower abundances. In the fjord copepods prevailed for most of our study. With time, abundance and taxonomic composition developed similarly in all mesocosms and the pCO2 had no significant effect on the overall community structure. Also, we did not find significant relationships between the pCO2 level and the abundance of single taxa. Changes in heterogeneous communities are, however, difficult to detect, and the exposure to elevated pCO2 was relatively short. We therefore suggest that future mesocosm experiments should be run for longer periods.

Effects of ocean acidification caused by rising CO2 on the early development of three mollusks

Increasing atmospheric CO2 can decrease seawater pH and carbonate ions, which may adversely affect the larval survival of calcareous animals. In this study, we simulated future atmospheric CO2 concentrations (800, 1500, 2000 and 3000 ppm) and examined the effects of ocean acidification on the early development of 3 mollusks (the abalones Haliotis diversicolor and H. discus hannai and the oyster Crassostrea angulata). We showed that fertilization rate, hatching rate, larval shell length, trochophore development, veliger survival and metamorphosis all decreased significantly at different pCO2 levels (except oyster hatching). H. discus hannai were more tolerant of high CO2 compared to H. diversicolor. At 2000 ppm CO2, 79.2% of H. discus hannai veliger larvae developed normally, but only 13.3% of H. diversicolor veliger larvae. Tolerance of C. angulata to ocean acidification was greater than the 2 abalone species; 50.5% of its D-larvae developed normally at 3000 ppm CO2. This apparent resistance of C. angulata to ocean acidification may be attributed to their adaptability to estuarine environments. Mechanisms underlying the resistance to ocean acidification of both abalones requires further investigation. Our results suggest that ocean acidification may decrease the yield of these 3 economically important shellfish if increasing CO2 is a future trend.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and early development of the sea urchin Lytechinus variegatus in a laboratory experiment using artificial seawater

Land-based aquaculture facilities often utilize additional bicarbonate sources such as commercial sea salts that are designed to boost alkalinity in order to buffer seawater against reductions in pH. Despite these preventative measures, many facilities are likely to face occasional reductions in pH and corresponding reductions in carbonate saturation states due to the accumulation of metabolic waste products. We investigated the impact of reduced carbonate saturation states (Omega Ca, Omega Ar) on embryonic developmental rates, larval developmental rates, and echinoplutei skeletal morphometrics in the common edible sea urchin Lytechinus variegatus under high alkalinity conditions. Commercial artificial seawater was bubbled with a mixture of air and CO2 gas to reduce the carbonate saturation state. Rates of embryonic and larval development were significantly delayed in both the low and extreme low carbonate saturation state groups relative to the control at a given time. Although symmetry of overall skeletal body lengths was not affected, allometric relationships were significantly different between treatment groups. Larvae reared under ambient conditions had significantly greater postoral arm and overall body lengths relative to body lengths than larvae grown under extreme low carbonate saturation state conditions, indicating that extreme changes in the carbonate system affected not only developmental rates but also larval skeletal shape. Reduced rates of embryonic development and delayed and altered larval skeletal growth are likely to negatively impact larval culturing of L. variegatus in land-based, intensive culture situations where calcite and aragonite saturation states are lowered by the accumulation of metabolic waste products.

Impacts of ocean warming and acidification on the larval development of the barnacle Amphibalanus improvisus

The world's oceans are warming and becoming more acidic. Both stressors, singly or in combination, impact marine species, and ensuing effects might be particularly serious for early life stages. To date most studies have focused on ocean acidification (OA) effects in fully marine environments, while little attention has been devoted to more variable coastal ecosystems, such as the Western Baltic Sea. Since natural spatial and temporal variability of environmental conditions such as salinity, temperature or pCO2 impose more complex stresses upon organisms inhabiting these habitats, species can be expected to be more tolerant to OA (or warming) than fully marine taxa. We present data on the variability of salinity, temperature and pH within the Kiel Fjord and on the responses of the barnacle Amphibalanus improvisus from this habitat to simulated warming and OA during its early development. Nauplii and cyprids were exposed to different temperature (12, 20 and 27°C) and pCO2 (nominally 400, 1250 and 3250 µatm) treatments for 8 and 4 weeks, respectively. Survival, larval duration and settlement success were monitored. Warming affected larval responses more strongly than OA. Increased temperatures favored survival and development of nauplii but decreased survival of cyprids. OA had no effect upon survival of nauplii but enhanced their development at low (12°C) and high (27°C) temperatures. In contrast, at the intermediate temperature (20°C), nauplii were not affected even by 3250 µatm pCO2. None of the treatments significantly affected settlement success of cyprids. These experiments show a remarkable tolerance of A. improvisus larvae to 1250 µatm pCO2, the level of OA predicted for the end of the century.

Effects of seawater acidification on early development of the intertidal sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus, seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes

The effect of pH ranging from 8.0 to 6.8 (total scale - pHT) on fertilization, cleavage and larval development until pluteus stage was assessed in an intertidal temperate sea urchin. Gametes were obtained from adults collected in two contrasting tide pools, one showing a significant nocturnal pH decrease (lowest pHT = 7.4) and another where pH was more stable (lowest pHT = 7.8). The highest pHT at which significant effects on fertilization and cleavage were recorded was 7.6. On the contrary, larval development was only affected below pHT 7.4, a value equal or lower than that reported for several subtidal species. This suggests that sea urchins inhabiting stressful intertidal environments produce offspring that may better resist future ocean acidification. Moreover, at pHT 7.4, the fertilization rate of gametes whose progenitors came from the tide pool with higher pH decrease was significantly higher, indicating a possible acclimatization or adaptation of gametes to pH stress.

Adverse effects of ocean acidification on early development of squid (Doryteuthis pealeii)

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) is being absorbed into the ocean, altering seawater chemistry, with potentially negative impacts on a wide range of marine organisms. The early life stages of invertebrates with internal and external aragonite structures may be particularly vulnerable to this ocean acidification. Impacts to cephalopods, which form aragonite cuttlebones and statoliths, are of concern because of the central role they play in many ocean ecosystems and because of their importance to global fisheries. Atlantic longfin squid (Doryteuthis pealeii), an ecologically and economically valuable taxon, were reared from eggs to hatchlings (paralarvae) under ambient and elevated CO2 concentrations in replicated experimental trials. Animals raised under elevated pCO2 demonstrated significant developmental changes including increased time to hatching and shorter mantle lengths, although differences were small. Aragonite statoliths, critical for balance and detecting movement, had significantly reduced surface area and were abnormally shaped with increased porosity and altered crystal structure in elevated pCO2-reared paralarvae. These developmental and physiological effects could alter squid paralarvae behavior and survival in the wild, directly and indirectly impacting marine food webs and commercial fisheries.

Effect of increased pCO2 level on early shell development in great scallop (Pecten maximus Lamarck) larvae

As a result of high anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the concentration of CO2 in the oceans has increased, causing a decrease in pH, known as ocean acidification (OA). Numerous studies have shown negative effects on marine invertebrates, and also that the early life stages are the most sensitive to OA. We studied the effects of OA on embryos and unfed larvae of the great scallop (Pecten maximus Lamarck), at pCO(2) levels of 469 (ambient), 807, 1164, and 1599 µatm until seven days after fertilization. To our knowledge, this is the first study on OA effects on larvae of this species. A drop in pCO(2) level the first 12 h was observed in the elevated pCO(2) groups due to a discontinuation in water flow to avoid escape of embryos. When the flow was restarted, pCO(2) level stabilized and was significantly different between all groups. OA affected both survival and shell growth negatively after seven days. Survival was reduced from 45% in the ambient group to 12% in the highest pCO(2) group. Shell length and height were reduced by 8 and 15 %, respectively, when pCO(2) increased from ambient to 1599 µatm. Development of normal hinges was negatively affected by elevated pCO(2) levels in both trochophore larvae after two days and veliger larvae after seven days. After seven days, deformities in the shell hinge were more connected to elevated pCO(2) levels than deformities in the shell edge. Embryos stained with calcein showed fluorescence in the newly formed shell area, indicating calcification of the shell at the early trochophore stage between one and two days after fertilization. Our results show that P. maximus embryos and early larvae may be negatively affected by elevated pCO(2) levels within the range of what is projected towards year 2250, although the initial drop in pCO(2) level may have overestimated the effect of the highest pCO(2) levels. Future work should focus on long-term effects on this species from hatching, throughout the larval stages, and further into the juvenile and adult stages.

Effect of ocean acidification and pH fluctuations on the growth and development of coralline algal recruits, and an associated benthic algal assemblage

Coralline algae are susceptible to the changes in the seawater carbonate system associated with ocean acidification (OA). However, the coastal environments in which corallines grow are subject to large daily pH fluctuations which may affect their responses to OA. Here, we followed the growth and development of the juvenile coralline alga Arthrocardia corymbosa, which had recruited into experimental conditions during a prior experiment, using a novel OA laboratory culture system to simulate the pH fluctuations observed within a kelp forest. Microscopic life history stages are considered more susceptible to environmental stress than adult stages; we compared the responses of newly recruited A. corymbosa to static and fluctuating seawater pH with those of their field-collected parents. Recruits were cultivated for 16 weeks under static pH 8.05 and 7.65, representing ambient and 4*preindustrial pCO2 concentrations, respectively, and two fluctuating pH treatments of daily (daytime pH = 8.45, night-time pH = 7.65) and daily (daytime pH = 8.05, night-time pH = 7.25). Positive growth rates of new recruits were recorded in all treatments, and were highest under static pH 8.05 and lowest under fluctuating pH 7.65. This pattern was similar to the adults' response, except that adults had zero growth under fluctuating pH 7.65. The % dry weight of MgCO3 in calcite of the juveniles was reduced from 10% at pH 8.05 to 8% at pH 7.65, but there was no effect of pH fluctuation. A wide range of fleshy macroalgae and at least 6 species of benthic diatoms recruited across all experimental treatments, from cryptic spores associated with the adult A. corymbosa. There was no effect of experimental treatment on the growth of the benthic diatoms. On the community level, pH-sensitive species may survive lower pH in the presence of diatoms and fleshy macroalgae, whose high metabolic activity may raise the pH of the local microhabitat.

Effects of elevated pCO2 on the post-settlement development of Pocillopora damicornis

Ocean acidification represents a key threat to the recruitment of scleractinian corals. Here, we investigated the effect of increased partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) on the early development of Pocillopora damicornis by rearing the recruits for 12 days at 3 pCO2 levels (446, 896 and 1681 µatm). Results showed that increased pCO2 exerted minor effects on symbiont density and maximum quantum yield (Fv/Fm), while significantly enhanced the relative electron transport through photosystem II (PSII) of Symbiodinium. Notably, calcification and biomass of recruits decreased sharply by 34% and 24% respectively in 896 µatm, and tended to remain constant as pCO2 was raised from 896 to 1681 µatm. Furthermore, recruits in 1681 ?atm, with comparable surface area as those in 896 µatm, produced fewer buds. These findings indicated that juvenile P. damicornis under high pCO2 would enhance electron transport rate and suppress asexual budding to favor skeletal and tissue growths, which are more critical for their persistence and survival in a high pCO2 environment. This work suggested the physiological plasticity of juvenile corals under short-term exposure to elevated pCO2.

Impact of CO2-driven acidification on the development of the sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus (Selenka) (Echinodermata: Holothuroidea)

We evaluated the impact of ocean acidification on the early development of sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus. The effect of pH-levels (pH 8.04, 7.85, 7.70 and 7.42) were tested on post-fertilization success, developmental (stage duration) and growth rates. Post-fertilization success decreased linearly with pH leading to a 6% decrease at pH 7.42 as compared to pH 8.1. The impact of pH on developmental time was stage-dependent: (1) stage duration increased linearly with decreasing pH in early-auricularia stage; (2) decreased linearly with decreasing pH in the mid-auricularia stage; but (3) pH decline had no effect on the late-auricularia stage. At the end of the experiment, the size of doliolaria larvae linearly increased with decreasing pH. In conclusion, a 0.62 unit decrease in pH had relatively small effects on A. japonicus early life-history compared to other echinoderms, leading to a maximum of 6% decrease in post-fertilization success and subtle effects on growth and development.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and larval development and settlement of the sea urchin Arbacia lixula in a laboratory experiment

We studied the effects of temperature and pH on larval development, settlement and juvenile survival of a Mediterranean population of the sea urchin Arbacia lixula. Three temperatures (16, 17.5 and 19 °C) were tested at present pH conditions (pHT 8.1). At 19 °C, two pH levels were compared to reflect present average (pHT 8.1) and near-future average conditions (pHT 7.7, expected by 2100). Larvae were reared for 52-days to achieve the full larval development and complete the metamorphosis to the settler stage. We analyzed larval survival, growth, morphology and settlement success. We also tested the carry-over effect of acidification on juvenile survival after 3 days. Our results showed that larval survival and size significantly increased with temperature. Acidification resulted in higher survival rates and developmental delay. Larval morphology was significantly altered by low temperatures, which led to narrower larvae with relatively shorter skeletal rods, but larval morphology was only marginally affected by acidification. No carry-over effects between larvae and juveniles were detected in early settler survival, though settlers from larvae reared at pH 7.7 were significantly smaller than their counterparts developed at pH 8.1. These results suggest an overall positive effect of environmental parameters related to global change on the reproduction of A. lixula, and reinforce the concerns about the increasing negative impact on shallow Mediterranean ecosystems of this post-glacial colonizer.

The potential of ocean acidifi cation on suppressing larval development in the Pacifi c oyster Crassostrea gigas and blood cockle Arca infl ata Reeve

We evaluated the effect of pH on larval development in larval Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) and blood cockle ( Arca inflata Reeve). The larvae were reared at pH 8.2 (control), 7.9, 7.6, or 7.3 beginning 30 min or 24 h post fertilization. Exposure to lower pH during early embryonic development inhibited larval shell formation in both species. Compared with the control, larvae took longer to reach the D-veliger stage when reared under pH 7.6 and 7.3. Exposure to lower pH immediately after fertilization resulted in significantly delayed shell formation in the Pacific oyster larvae at pH 7.3 and blood cockle larvae at pH 7.6 and 7.3. However, when exposure was delayed until 24 h post fertilization, shell formation was only inhibited in blood cockle larvae reared at pH 7.3. Thus, the early embryonic stages were more sensitive to acidified conditions. Our results suggest that ocean acidification will have an adverse effect on embryonic development in bivalves. Although the effects appear subtle, they may accumulate and lead to subsequent issues during later larval development.

Mixed effects of elevated pCO2 on fertilisation, larval and juvenile development and adult responses in the mobile subtidal scallop Mimachlamys asperrima (Lamarck, 1819)

Ocean acidification is predicted to have severe consequences for calcifying marine organisms especially molluscs. Recent studies, however, have found that molluscs in marine environments with naturally elevated or fluctuating CO2 or with an active, high metabolic rate lifestyle may have a capacity to acclimate and be resilient to exposures of elevated environmental pCO2. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of near future concentrations of elevated pCO2 on the larval and adult stages of the mobile doughboy scallop, Mimachlamys asperrima from a subtidal and stable physio-chemical environment. It was found that fertilisation and the shell length of early larval stages of M. asperrima decreased as pCO2 increased, however, there were less pronounced effects of elevated pCO2 on the shell length of later larval stages, with high pCO2 enhancing growth in some instances. Byssal attachment and condition index of adult M. asperrima decreased with elevated pCO2, while in contrast there was no effect on standard metabolic rate or pHe. The responses of larval and adult M. asperrima to elevated pCO2 measured in this study were more moderate than responses previously reported for intertidal oysters and mussels. Even this more moderate set of responses are still likely to reduce the abundance of M. asperrima and potentially other scallop species in the world's oceans at predicted future pCO2 levels.