6 resultados para Robust model
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
The Last Interglacial (LIG, 129-116 thousand of years BP, ka) represents a test bed for climate model feedbacks in warmer-than-present high latitude regions. However, mainly because aligning different palaeoclimatic archives and from different parts of the world is not trivial, a spatio-temporal picture of LIG temperature changes is difficult to obtain. Here, we have selected 47 polar ice core and sub-polar marine sediment records and developed a strategy to align them onto the recent AICC2012 ice core chronology. We provide the first compilation of high-latitude temperature changes across the LIG associated with a coherent temporal framework built between ice core and marine sediment records. Our new data synthesis highlights non-synchronous maximum temperature changes between the two hemispheres with the Southern Ocean and Antarctica records showing an early warming compared to North Atlantic records. We also observe warmer than present-day conditions that occur for a longer time period in southern high latitudes than in northern high latitudes. Finally, the amplitude of temperature changes at high northern latitudes is larger compared to high southern latitude temperature changes recorded at the onset and the demise of the LIG. We have also compiled four data-based time slices with temperature anomalies (compared to present-day conditions) at 115 ka, 120 ka, 125 ka and 130 ka and quantitatively estimated temperature uncertainties that include relative dating errors. This provides an improved benchmark for performing more robust model-data comparison. The surface temperature simulated by two General Circulation Models (CCSM3 and HadCM3) for 130 ka and 125 ka is compared to the corresponding time slice data synthesis. This comparison shows that the models predict warmer than present conditions earlier than documented in the North Atlantic, while neither model is able to produce the reconstructed early Southern Ocean and Antarctic warming. Our results highlight the importance of producing a sequence of time slices rather than one single time slice averaging the LIG climate conditions.
Resumo:
The copepod Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant species of the meso-zooplankton in the Norwegian Sea, and constitutes an important link between the phytoplankton and the higher trophic levels in the Norwegian Sea food chain. An individualbased model for C. finmarchicus, based on super-individuals and evolving traits for behaviour, stages, etc., is two-way coupled to the NORWegian ECOlogical Model system (NORWECOM). One year of modelled C. finmarchicus spatial distribution, production and biomass are found to represent observations reasonably well. High C. finmarchicus abundance is found along the Norwegian shelf-break in the early summer, while the overwintering population is found along the slope and in the deeper Norwegian Sea basins. The timing of the spring bloom is generally later than in the observations. Annual Norwegian Sea production is found to be 29 million tonnes of carbon and a production to biomass (P/B) ratio of 4.3 emerges. Sensitivity tests show that the modelling system is robust to initial values of behavioural traits and with regards to the number of super-individuals simulated given that this is above about 50,000 individuals. Experiments with the model system indicate that it provides a valuable tool for studies of ecosystem responses to causative forces such as prey density or overwintering population size. For example, introducing C. finmarchicus food limitations reduces the stock dramatically, but on the other hand, a reduced stock may rebuild in one year under normal conditions. The NetCDF file contains model grid coordinates and bottom topography.
Resumo:
A nested ice flow model was developed for eastern Dronning Maud Land to assist with the dating and interpretation of the EDML deep ice core. The model consists of a high-resolution higher-order ice dynamic flow model that was nested into a comprehensive 3-D thermomechanical model of the whole Antarctic ice sheet. As the drill site is on a flank position the calculations specifically take into account the effects of horizontal advection as deeper ice in the core originated from higher inland. First the regional velocity field and ice sheet geometry is obtained from a forward experiment over the last 8 glacial cycles. The result is subsequently employed in a Lagrangian backtracing algorithm to provide particle paths back to their time and place of deposition. The procedure directly yields the depth-age distribution, surface conditions at particle origin, and a suite of relevant parameters such as initial annual layer thickness. This paper discusses the method and the main results of the experiment, including the ice core chronology, the non-climatic corrections needed to extract the climatic part of the signal, and the thinning function. The focus is on the upper 89% of the ice core (appr. 170 kyears) as the dating below that is increasingly less robust owing to the unknown value of the geothermal heat flux. It is found that the temperature biases resulting from variations of surface elevation are up to half of the magnitude of the climatic changes themselves.
Resumo:
Here we demonstrate the applicability of using altimetry data and Landsat imagery to provide the most accurate digital elevation model (DEM) of Australia's largest playa lake - Lake Eyre. We demonstrate through the use of geospatial techniques a robust assessment of lake area and volume of recent lake-filling episodes whilst also providing the most accurate estimates of area and volume for larger lake filling episodes that occurred throughout the last glacial cycle. We highlight that at a depth of 25 m Lake Mega-Eyre would merge with the adjacent Lake Mega-Frome to form an immense waterbody with a combined area of almost 35,000 km**2 and a combined volume of ~520 km**3. This would represent a vast water body in what is now the arid interior of the Australian continent. The improved DEM is more reliable from a geomorphological and hydrological perspective and allows a more accurate assessment of water balance under the modern hydrological regime. The results presented using GLAS/ICESat data suggest that earlier historical soundings were correct and the actual lowest topographic point in Australia is -15.6 m below sea level. The results also contrast nicely the different basin characteristics of two adjacent lake systems; Lake Eyre and Lake Frome.
Resumo:
In the framework of the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA), a comprehensive glaciological pre-site survey has been carried out on Amundsenisen, Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, in the past decade. Within this survey, four intermediate-depth ice cores and 13 snow pits were analyzed for their ionic composition and interpreted with respect to the spatial and temporal variability of volcanic sulphate deposition. The comparison of the non-sea-salt (nss)-sulphate peaks that are related to the well-known eruptions of Pinatubo and Cerro Hudson in AD 1991 revealed sulphate depositions of comparable size (15.8 ± 3.4 kg/km**2) in 11 snow pits. There is a tendency to higher annual concentrations for smaller snow-accumulation rates. The combination of seasonal sodium and annually resolved nss-sulphate records allowed the establishment of a time-scale derived by annual-layer counting over the last 2000 years and thus a detailed chronology of annual volcanic sulphate deposition. Using a robust outlier detection algorithm, 49 volcanic eruptions were identified between AD 165 and 1997. The dating uncertainty is ±3 years between AD 1997 and 1601, around ±5 years between AD 1601 and 1257, and increasing to ±24 years at AD 165, improving the accuracy of the volcanic chronology during the penultimate millennium considerably.
Resumo:
Timing is crucial to understanding the causes and consequences of events in Earth history. The calibration of geological time relies heavily on the accuracy of radioisotopic and astronomical dating. Uncertainties in the computations of Earth's orbital parameters and in radioisotopic dating have hampered the construction of a reliable astronomically calibrated time scale beyond 40 Ma. Attempts to construct a robust astronomically tuned time scale for the early Paleogene by integrating radioisotopic and astronomical dating are only partially consistent. Here, using the new La2010 and La2011 orbital solutions, we present the first accurate astronomically calibrated time scale for the early Paleogene (47-65 Ma) uniquely based on astronomical tuning and thus independent of the radioisotopic determination of the Fish Canyon standard. Comparison with geological data confirms the stability of the new La2011 solution back to ~54 Ma. Subsequent anchoring of floating chronologies to the La2011 solution using the very long eccentricity nodes provides an absolute age of 55.530 {plus minus} 0.05 Ma for the onset of the Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), 54.850 {plus minus} 0.05 Ma for the early Eocene ash -17, and 65.250 {plus minus} 0.06 Ma for the K/Pg boundary. The new astrochronology presented here indicates that the intercalibration and synchronization of U/Pb and 40Ar/39Ar radiometric geochronology is much more challenging than previously thought.