Framework for risk assessment for maritime transportation systems

Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship-ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. The model can be run with the use of GeNIe software package. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.

CO2 and vitamin B12 interactions determine bioactive trace metal requirements of a subarctic Pacific diatom

Phytoplankton growth can be limited by numerous inorganic nutrients and organic growth factors. Using the subarctic diatom Attheya sp. in culture studies, we examined how the availability of vitamin B(12) and carbon dioxide partial pressure (pCO(2)) influences growth rate, primary productivity, cellular iron (Fe), cobalt (Co), zinc (Zn) and cadmium (Cd) quotas, and the net use efficiencies (NUEs) of these bioactive trace metals (mol C fixed per mol cellular trace metal per day). Under B(12)-replete conditions, cells grown at high pCO(2) had lower Fe, Zn and Cd quotas, and used those trace metals more efficiently in comparison with cells grown at low pCO(2). At high pCO(2), B(12)-limited cells had ~50% lower specific growth and carbon fixation rates, and used Fe ~15-fold less efficiently, and Zn and Cd ~3-fold less efficiently, in comparison with B(12)-replete cells. The observed higher Fe, Zn and Cd NUE under high pCO(2)/B(12)-replete conditions are consistent with predicted downregulation of carbon-concentrating mechanisms. Co quotas of B(12)-replete cells were 5- to 14-fold higher in comparison with B(12)-limited cells, suggesting that >80% of cellular Co of B(12)-limited cells was likely from B(12). Our results demonstrate that CO(2) and vitamin B(12) interactively influence growth, carbon fixation, trace metal requirements and trace metal NUE of this diatom. This suggests the need to consider complex feedback interactions between multiple environmental factors for this biogeochemically critical group of phytoplankton in the last glacial maximum as well as the current and future changing ocean.