Stable carbon isotope record of sediment core Bass_River_Site

A thick, apparently continuous section recording events of the latest Paleocene thermal maximum in a neritic setting was drilled at Bass River State Forest, New Jersey as part of ODP Leg 174AX [Miller, Sugarman, Browning et al., 1998]. Integrated nannofossil and magneto-stratigraphy provides a firm chronology supplemented by planktonic foraminiferal biostratigraphy. This chronologic study indicates that this neritic section rivals the best deep-sea sections in providing a complete record of late Paleocene climatic events. Carbon and oxygen isotopes measured on benthic foraminifera show a major (4.0% in carbon, 2.3% in oxygen) negative shift correlative with the global latest Paleocene carbon isotope excursion (CIE). A sharp increase in kaolinite content coincides with the isotope shift in the Bass River section, analogous to increases found in several other records. Carbon and oxygen isotopes remain low and kaolinite content remains high for the remainder of the depositional sequence above the CIE (32.5 ft, 9.9 m), which we estimate to represent 300-500 k.y. We interpret these data as indicative of an abrupt shift to a warmer and wetter climate along the North American mid-Atlantic coast, in concert with global events associated with the CIE.

Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.