Freshwater runoff for Taylor Slough to Florida Bay for 1965 to 2000 for the FATHOM model

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.

(Table 1) Krill (Euphausia superba) biomass estimates at South Georgia Island from 2001-2005

The South Georgia region supports a large biomass of krill that is subject to high interannual variability. The apparent lack of a locally self-maintaining krill population at South Georgia means that understanding the mechanism underlying these observed population characteristics is essential to successful ecosystem-based management of krill fishery in the region. Krill acoustic-density data from surveys conducted in the early, middle and late period of the summers of 2001 to 2005, together with krill population size structure over the same period from predator diet data, were used with a krill population dynamics model to evaluate potential mechanisms behind the observed changes in krill biomass. Krill abundance was highest during the middle of the summer in 3 years and in the late period in 2 years; in the latter there was evidence that krill recruitment was delayed by several months. A model scenario that included empirically derived estimates of both the magnitude and timing of recruitment in each year showed the greatest correlation with the acoustic series. The results are consistent with a krill population with allochthonous recruitment entering a retained adult population; i.e. oceanic transport of adult krill does not appear to be the major factor determining the dynamics of the adult population. The results highlight the importance of the timing of recruitment, especially where this could introduce a mismatch between the peak of krill abundance and the peak demand from predators, which may exacerbate the effects of changes in krill populations arising from commercial harvesting and/or climate change.

Effect of ocean acidification on growth and otolith condition of juvenile scup, Stenotomus chrysops

Increasing amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from human industrial activities are causing changes in global ocean carbonate chemistry, resulting in a reduction in pH, a process termed "ocean acidification." It is important to determine which species are sensitive to elevated levels of CO2 because of potential impacts to ecosystems, marine resources, biodiversity, food webs, populations, and effects on economies. Previous studies with marine fish have documented that exposure to elevated levels of CO2 caused increased growth and larger otoliths in some species. This study was conducted to determine whether the elevated partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) would have an effect on growth, otolith (ear bone) condition, survival, or the skeleton of juvenile scup, Stenotomus chrysops, a species that supports both important commercial and recreational fisheries. Elevated levels of pCO2 (1200-2600 µatm) had no statistically significant effect on growth, survival, or otolith condition after 8 weeks of rearing. Field data show that in Long Island Sound, where scup spawn, in situ levels of pCO2 are already at levels ranging from 689 to 1828 µatm due to primary productivity, microbial activity, and anthropogenic inputs. These results demonstrate that ocean acidification is not likely to cause adverse effects on the growth and survivability of every species of marine fish. X-ray analysis of the fish revealed a slightly higher incidence of hyperossification in the vertebrae of a few scup from the highest treatments compared to fish from the control treatments. Our results show that juvenile scup are tolerant to increases in seawater pCO2, possibly due to conditions this species encounters in their naturally variable environment and their well-developed pH control mechanisms.