(Table 1) Calculated sea surface temperature of sediment core RC11-210

Proxy indicators of sea surface temperature and equatorial divergence based on radiolarian assemblage data, and of trade wind intensity based on eolian grain size data show similar aspects of variability during the late Pleistocene: All indicators fluctuate at higher frequencies than the 100,000-year glacial-interglacial cycle, display reduced amplitude variations since 300,000 years ago, exhibit a change in the record character at about 300,000 years ago (the mid-Brunhes climatic event), and have higher amplitude variations in sediments 300,000-850,000 years old. Time series analyses were conducted to determine the spectral character of each record (delta18O of planktonic foraminifer, sea surface temperature values, equatorial divergence indicators, and wind intensity indicators) and to quantify interrecord coherence and phase relationships. The record was divided at the 300,000-year clear change in climatic variability (nonstationarity). The delta18O-based time scale is better lower in the core so our spectral analyses concentrated on the interval from 402,000-774,000 years. The delta18O spectra show 100,000- and 41,000-year power in the younger portion, 0-300,000 years, and 100,000-, 41,000- and 23,000-year power in the older interval, all highly coherent and in phase with the SPECMAP average stacked isotope record. Unlike the isotope record the dominant period in both the eolian grain size and equatorial divergence indicators is 31,000 years. This period is also important in the sea surface temperature signal where the dominant spectral peak is 100,000 years. The 31,000-year spectral component is coherent and in phase between the eolian and divergence records, confirming the link between atmospheric and ocean surface circulation for the first time in the paleoclimate record. Since the 31,000-year power appears in independent data sets within this core and also appears in other equatorial records [J. Imbrie personal communication, 1987], we assume it to be real and representative of both a nonlinear response to orbital forcing, possibly a combination of orbital tilt and eccentricity, and some resonance phenomenon required to amplify the response at this period so that it appears as a dominant frequency component. The mid-Brunhes climatic event is an important aspect of these records, but its cause remains unknown.

Oxygen isotope stratigraphy Ojplus03 for the last 838,000 years

Global warming is real and has been with us for at least two decades. Questions arise regarding the response of the ocean to greenhouse forcing, including expectations for changes in ocean circulation, in uptake of excess carbon dioxide, and in upwelling activity. The large climate variations of the ice ages, within the last million years, offer the opportunity to study responses of the ocean to climate change. A histogram of sealevel positions for the last 700,000 years (based on a new d/sup 18/O stratigraphy here compiled) shows that the present is near the margin of the range of fluctuations, with only 6 percent of positions indicating a warmer climate. Thus, the future will be largely outside of experience with regard to fluctuations of the recent geologic past. The same is true for greenhouse forcing. Our inability to explain sudden climate change in the past, including the rapid rise of carbon dioxide during deglaciation, and differences in ocean productivity between glacial and interglacial conditions, demonstrates a lack of understanding that makes predictions suspect. This is the lesson from ice age studies.