Anthropogenic aerosol emissions and rainfall decline in South-West Australia - accompanying model results in NetCDF format

It is commonly understood that the observed decline in precipitation in South-West Australia during the 20th century is caused by anthropogenic factors. Candidates therefore are changes to large-scale atmospheric circulations due to global warming, extensive deforestation and anthropogenic aerosol emissions - all of which are effective on different spatial and temporal scales. This contribution focusses on the role of rapidly rising aerosol emissions from anthropogenic sources in South-West Australia around 1970. An analysis of historical longterm rainfall data of the Bureau of Meteorology shows that South-West Australia as a whole experienced a gradual decline in precipitation over the 20th century. However, on smaller scales and for the particular example of the Perth catchment area, a sudden drop in precipitation around 1970 is apparent. Modelling experiments at a convection-resolving resolution of 3.3km using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.6.1 with the aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer microphysics scheme are conducted for the period 1970-1974. A comparison of four runs with different prescribed aerosol emissions and without aerosol effects demonstrates that tripling the pre-1960s atmospheric CCN and IN concentrations can suppress precipitation by 2-9%, depending on the area and the season. This suggests that a combination of all three processes is required to account for the gradual decline in rainfall seen for greater South-West Australia and for the sudden drop observed in areas along the West Coast in the 1970s: changing atmospheric circulations, deforestation and anthropogenic aerosol emissions.

(Table 1) Position and astronomical ages of sedimentary cycles in the eastern Mediterranean Sea

An astronomically calibrated timescale has recently been established [Hilgen, 1991, doi:10.1016/0012-821X(91)90082-S; doi:10.1016/0012-821X(91)90206-W] for the Pliocene and earliest Pleistocene based on the correlation of dominantly precession controlled sedimentary cycles (sapropels and carbonate cycles) in Mediterranean marine sequences to the precession time series of the astronomical solution of Berger and Loutre [1991, doi:10.1016/0277-3791(91)90033-Q ] (hereinafter referred to as Ber90). Here we evaluate the accuracy of this timescale by (1) comparing the sedimentary cycle patterns with 65°N summer insolation time series of different astronomical solutions and (2) a cross-spectral comparison between the obliquity-related components in the 65°N summer insolation curves and high-resolution paleoclimatic records derived from the same sections used to construct the timescale. Our results show that the carbonate cycles older than 3.5 m.y. should be calibrated to one precession cycle older than previously proposed. Application of the astronomical solution of Laskar [1990, doi:10.1016/0019-1035(90)90084-M], (hereinafter referred to as La90) with present-day values for the dynamical ellipticity of the Earth and tidal dissipation by the Sun and Moon results in the best fit with the geological record, indicating that this solution is the most accurate from a geological point of view. Application of Ber90, or La90 solutions with dynamical ellipticity values smaller or larger than the present-day value, results in a less obvious fit with the geological record. This implies that the change in the planetary shape of the Earth associated with ice loading and unloading near the poles during the last 5.3 million years was too small to drive the precession into resonance with the perturbation term, s6-g6+g5, of Jupiter and Saturn. Our new timescale results in a slight but significant modification of all ages of the sedimentary cycles, bioevents, reversal boundaries, chronostratigraphic boundaries, and glacial cycles. Moreover, a comparison of this timescale with the astronomical timescales of ODP site 846 [Shackleton et al., 1995, doi:10.2973/odp.proc.sr.138.106.1995; doi:10.2973/odp.proc.sr.138.117.1995] and ODP site 659 [Tiedemann et al., 1994, doi:10.1029/94PA00208] indicates that all obliquity-related glacial cycles prior to ~4.7 Ma in ODP sites 659 and 846 should be correlated with one obliquity cycle older than previously proposed.

Alkenone accumulation and SST reconstruction for the Benguela upwelling zone

A feature of Pliocene climate is the occurrence of "permanent El Niño-like" or "El Padre" conditions in the Pacific Ocean. From the analysis of sediment cores in the modern northern Benguela upwelling, we show that the mean oceanographic state off Southwest Africa during the warm Pliocene epoch was also analogous to that of a persistent Benguela "El Niño". At present these events occur when massive southward flows of warm and nutrient-poor waters extend along the coasts of Angola and Namibia, with dramatic effects on regional marine ecosystems and rainfall. We propose that the persistent warmth across the Pliocene in the Benguela upwelling ended synchronously with the narrowing of the Indonesian seaway, and the early intensification of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciations around 3.0-3.5 Ma. The emergence of obliquity-related cycles in the Benguela sea surface temperatures (SST) after 3 Ma highlights the development of strengthened links to high latitude orbital forcing. The subsequent evolution of the Benguela upwelling system was characterized by the progressive intensification of the meridional SST gradients, and the emergence of the 100 ky cycle, until the modern mean conditions were set at the end of the Mid Pleistocene transition, around 0.6 Ma. These findings support the notion that the interplay of changes in the depth of the global thermocline, atmospheric circulation and tectonics preconditioned the climate system for the end of the warm Pliocene epoch and the subsequent intensification of the ice ages.