EPANET Input Files of New York tunnels and Pacific City used in a metamodel-based optimization study

Metamodels have proven be very useful when it comes to reducing the computational requirements of Evolutionary Algorithm-based optimization by acting as quick-solving surrogates for slow-solving fitness functions. The relationship between metamodel scope and objective function varies between applications, that is, in some cases the metamodel acts as a surrogate for the whole fitness function, whereas in other cases it replaces only a component of the fitness function. This paper presents a formalized qualitative process to evaluate a fitness function to determine the most suitable metamodel scope so as to increase the likelihood of calibrating a high-fidelity metamodel and hence obtain good optimization results in a reasonable amount of time. The process is applied to the risk-based optimization of water distribution systems; a very computationally-intensive problem for real-world systems. The process is validated with a simple case study (modified New York Tunnels) and the power of metamodelling is demonstrated on a real-world case study (Pacific City) with a computational speed-up of several orders of magnitude.

Vegetation cover and radiocarbon dates of palsa and peat plateaus in the Hudson Bay Lowlands

The Holocene development of a treed palsa bog and a peat plateau bog, located near the railroad to Churchill in the Hudson Bay Lowlands of northeastern Manitoba, was traced using peat macrofossil and radiocarbon analyses. Both sites first developed as wet rich fens through paludification of forested uplands around 6800 cal. yr BP. Results show a 20th-century age for the palsa formation and repeated periods of permafrost aggradation and collapse at the peat plateau site during the late Holocene. This timing of permafrost dynamics corroborates well with that inferred from previous studies on other permafrost peatlands in the same region. The developmental history of the palsa and peat plateau bogs is similar to that of adjacent permafrost-free fens, except for the specific frost heave and collapse features associated with permafrost dynamics. Permafrost aggradation and degradation is ascribed to regional climatic, local autogenic and other factors. Particularly the very recent palsa development can be assessed in terms of climatic changes as inferred from meteorological data and surface hydrological changes related to construction of the railroad. The results indicate that cold years with limited snowfall as well as altered drainage patterns associated with infrastructure development may have contributed to the recent palsa formation.

Stable isotope and Mg/Ca ratio of sediment core GeoB12610-2

To reconstruct the still poorly understood thermocline fluctuations in the western tropical Indian Ocean, a sediment core located off Tanzania (GeoB12610-2; 04°49.00'S, 39°25.42'E, 399?m water depth) covering the last 35 ka was analysed. Mg/Ca-derived temperatures from the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber (white) and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei indicate that the last glacial was ~2.5 °C colder in the surface waters and ~3.5 °C colder in the thermocline compared with the present day. The depth of the thermocline and thus the stratification of the water column were shallower during glacial periods and deepened during the deglaciation and Holocene. The increased inflow of Southern Ocean Intermediate Waters via 'ocean tunnels' appears to cool the thermocline from below, leading to a similarity between the thermocline record of GeoB12610-2 with the Antarctic EDML temperature curve during the glacial. With rising sea level and the corresponding greater inflow of Red Sea Waters and Indonesian Intermediate Waters, the proportion of Southern Ocean Intermediate Water within the South Equatorial Current is reduced and, by Holocene time, the correlation to Antarctica is barely traceable. Comparison with the eastern Indian Ocean reveals that the thermocline depth reverses from the last glacial to present.