Model-based changes in global annual mean surface temperature change (Delta T_g) and radiative forcing due to land ice albedo changes (Delta R_[LI]) over the last 5 Myr, supplementary material

It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane, deuterium, and calculated Antarctic temperature of EPICA Dome C ice core

Understanding the role of atmospheric CO2 during past climate changes requires clear knowledge of how it varies in time relative to temperature. Antarctic ice cores preserve highly resolved records of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature for the past 800,000 years. Here we propose a revised relative age scale for the concentration of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature for the last deglacial warming, using data from five Antarctic ice cores. We infer the phasing between CO2 concentration and Antarctic temperature at four times when their trends change abruptly. We find no significant asynchrony between them, indicating that Antarctic temperature did not begin to rise hundreds of years before the concentration of atmospheric CO2, as has been suggested by earlier studies.

Ice rafted debris and reconstructed sea surface temperature of ODP Hole 104-642B

The mid-Piacenzian warm period (3.264-3.025 Ma) of the Pliocene epoch has been proposed as a possible reference for future warm climate states. However, there is significant disagreement over the magnitude of high latitude warming between data and models for this period of time, raising questions about the driving mechanisms and responsible feedbacks. We have developed a new set of orbital-resolution alkenone-based sea surface temperature (SST) and ice rafted debris (IRD) records from the Norwegian Sea spanning 3.264-3.14 Ma. The SSTs in the Norwegian Sea were 2-3?°C warmer than the Holocene average, likely caused by the radiative effect of higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. There is notable obliquity-driven SST variability with a range of 4?°C, shown by evolutive spectra. The correlation of SST variability with the presence of IRD suggests a common climate forcing acting across the Nordic Seas region. Changes of the SST gradient between the Norwegian Sea and North Atlantic sites suggest that the subpolar gyre was at least as strong as during the Holocene, and that the northward heat transport by the North Atlantic Current was comparable.

(Table 1) Oxygen isotope composition and comparison between ages and sea surface temperature from sediment core KH-79-3_L-3

The Japan Sea experienced bottom water anoxia at the last glacial maximum (LGM) since it is surrounded by four shallow straits, the sill depths of which are close to, or shallower than, the drop in sea level (~120 m) that occurred then. A distinctive negative d18O excursion of planktonic foraminifera also took place during the LGM. This excursion has been interpreted from foraminiferal data as recording a drop in the paleosalinity of surface waters on the assumption of a constant low sea surface temperatures between 34 and 11 ka. We present here a profile of alkenone-based sea surface temperatures (alkenone-SSTs) over the past 36 kyr. Our results suggest that SSTs during the LGM were much higher than those previously assumed. After considering the factors that might affect estimation of alkenone-SSTs and comparisons of core-top alkenone-SSTs values with values for modern seawater we conclude that the higher alkenone-SSTs during the LGM are reliable and reasonable. These warm SSTs were probably caused by radiative equilibrium associated with the development of stable water stratification in the Japan Sea during the LGM.

Sea surface temperature and age analysis from sediment core KT94-15_PC-9, XP98-PC-4 and XP98-PC-2

The Japan Sea experienced bottom water anoxia at the last glacial maximum (LGM) since it is surrounded by four shallow straits, the sill depths of which are close to, or shallower than, the drop in sea level (~120 m) that occurred then. A distinctive negative d18O excursion of planktonic foraminifera also took place during the LGM. This excursion has been interpreted from foraminiferal data as recording a drop in the paleosalinity of surface waters on the assumption of a constant low sea surface temperatures between 34 and 11 ka. We present here a profile of alkenone-based sea surface temperatures (alkenone-SSTs) over the past 36 kyr. Our results suggest that SSTs during the LGM were much higher than those previously assumed. After considering the factors that might affect estimation of alkenone-SSTs and comparisons of core-top alkenone-SSTs values with values for modern seawater we conclude that the higher alkenone-SSTs during the LGM are reliable and reasonable. These warm SSTs were probably caused by radiative equilibrium associated with the development of stable water stratification in the Japan Sea during the LGM.