Age model for the time between 3.45 and 2.45 Ma of ODP Site 189-1172

Calcareous nannoplankton assemblages and benthic d18O isotopes of Pliocene deep-sea sediments of ODP site 1172 (East of Tasmania) have been studied to improve our knowledge of the Southern Ocean paleoceanography. Our study site is located just north of the Subtropical Front (STF), an ideal setting to monitor migrations of the STF during our study period, between 3.45 and 2.45 Ma. The assemblage identified at ODP site 1172 has been interpreted as characteristic for the transitional zone water mass, located south of the STF, based on: (i) the low abundances (< 1%) of subtropical taxa, (ii) relatively high percentages of Coccolithus pelagicus, a subpolar type species, (iii) abundances from 2-10% of Calcidiscus leptoporus, a species that frequently inhabits the zone south of the STF and (iv) the high abundances of small Noelaerhabdaceae which at present dominates the zone south of the STF. Across our interval the calcareous nannoplankton manifests glacial-interglacial variability. We have identified cold events, characterized by high abundances of C. pelagicus which coincide with glacial periods, except during G7. After 3.1 Ma cold events are more frequent, in concordance with global cooling trends. Around 2.75 Ma, the interglacial stage G7 is characterized by anomalous low temperatures which most likely are linked to definite closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS), an event that is believed to have had global consequences. A gradual increase of very small Reticulofenestra across our section marks a significant trend in the small Noelaerhabdaceae species group and has been linked to a general enhanced mixing of the water column in agreement with previous studies. It is suggested that a rapid decline of small Gephyrocapsa after isotopic stage G7 might be related to the cooling observed in our study site after the closure of the CAS.

Salinization Model with links to source files

This computational model of irrigation agriculture is used to study the effects of salinization in Mesopotamia. Scholars have long suspected that central and southern Mesopotamia present environments which limited agricultural production over long-term periods. In regions such as central Mesopotamia, where salinization likely affected settlement in different periods but was more manageable than in more southern regions, fallowing regimes, natural and engineered leaching, and decisions made on when to crop were strategies applied in order to limit the effects of salinization. The model is used to assess the effectiveness of these coping strategies by incorporating projected climate, soil, and landscape conditions with agricultural practices. The simulation results not only demonstrate the effectiveness and limitations of techniques to inhibiting progressive salinization but can be compared with the archaeological record in order to determine if the results correspond to past events and help to interpret past settlement history.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, growth rate and PIC and POC production during experiments with Emiliania huxleyi (B92/11), 2011

The coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi was cultured under a broad range of carbonate chemistry conditions to distinguish the effects of individual carbonate system parameters on growth, primary production, and calcification. In the first experiment, alkalinity was kept constant and the fugacity of CO2(fCO2) varied from 2 to 600 Pa (1Pa ~ 10 µatm). In the second experiment, pH was kept constant (pHfree = 8) with fCO2 varying from 4 to 370 Pa. Results of the constant-alkalinity approach revealed physiological optima for growth, calcification, and organic carbon production at fCO2 values of ~20Pa, ~40 Pa, and ~80 Pa, respectively. Comparing this with the constant-pH approach showed that growth and organic carbon production increased similarly from low to intermediate CO2 levels but started to diverge towards higher CO2 levels. In the high CO2 range, growth rates and organic carbon production decreased steadily with declining pH at constant alkalinity while remaining consistently higher at constant pH. This suggests that growth and organic carbon production rates are directly related to CO2 at low (sub-saturating) concentrations, whereas towards higher CO2 levels they are adversely affected by the associated decrease in pH. A pH dependence at high fCO2 is also indicated for calcification rates, while the key carbonate system parameter determining calcification at low fCO2 remains unclear. These results imply that key metabolic processes in coccolithophores have their optima at different carbonate chemistry conditions and are influenced by different parameters of the carbonate system at both sides of the optimum.

Primary production at time series station DYFAMED

Phytoplankton carbon assimilation has been measured near monthly using the 14C method at DYFAMED France JGOFS time-series station from 1993 to 1999. Data were obtained using the "LET GO" technique, which allowed in situ injection of bicarbonate and incubation in enclosures at 10 depths. Incubation duration was 4 h around noon, from which daily production was estimated. The seasonal variation of the depth-integrated carbon assimilation exhibits a marked cycle. Maximum values reach 1.8 g C/m**2/d in March or April; constant lower values were observed from August to January, in the range 100-300 mg C/m**2/d. The annual primary production vary in the range 86-232 g C/m**2/yr, in the upper range of older estimations. Primary production normalized to chlorophyll a shows maximum values in the period of oligotrophy. This increase of carbon assimilation rate per unit of chlorophyll a appears as linked to the period of phosphorus-limited ecosystem, and vertical distribution of taxonomic pigments suggests a possible role of cyanobacteria. Potential export production has been estimated from primary production data and Fp ratio based on pigments concentrations. These estimates (which imply biological steady state conditions) vary in a wide range, from 19 to 71 g C/m**2/yr. There is a decoupling between years with high potential export production and years with high measured particulate fluxes, which highlights the question of balance by resupply of the limiting nutrients and the role of dissolved organic carbon. A possible shift of primary production towards a more regeneration-dominated system is suggested for recent years.

Tidal and spatial variations of DI13C and aquatic chemistry in a temperate tidal basin during winter time

Here, the pelagic carbonate system and the ?13C signature of dissolved inorganic carbonate (DIC) were investigated in a tidal basin of the southern North Sea, the Jade Bay, with respect to tidal cycles and a transect towards the North Sea in winter time (January and November, 2010). Physical parameters, major and trace elements, and nutrient concentrations were considered, too. Primary production and pelagic organic matter respiration were negligible during winter time. Both, the compositional variations on the transects as well as during the tidal cycles indicate the mixing of North Sea with fresh water. The combined spatial co-variations of different parameters indicate an introduction of fresh water that was enriched in DI12C, metabolites (e.g., ammonia), protons, and dissolved redox-sensitive elements (e.g., Mn2+). During the January campaign, the discharge via the flood gates was limited due to ice cover of the hinterland drainage ditches, allowing for an observation of tidal variations without significant mixing contributions from surface water discharges. Considering a binary mixing model with North Sea and fresh water as end-members, the extrapolated fresh water end-member composition for this campaign is estimated to contain about 3.8 mmol/kg DIC , and enhanced concentrations of NH4+, Mn2+, and protons compared to North Sea water. The fast temporal response of dissolved geochemical tracers on tidal variations in the Jade Bay indicates a continuous supply of a fresh water component. The measured composition of fresh waters entering the Jade Bay via flood gates (end of October, 2010) did not match the values estimated by the binary mixing model. Therefore, the overall fresh water component likely is a mixture between sources originating from flood gates and (in January) dominating submarine groundwater discharge entering the Jade Bay. This model is consistent with the results obtained during the November campaign, when a more important contribution from flood gates is expected and a more variable fresh water end-member is estimated. The co-variations of the concentrations and the stable carbon isotope composition of DIC are applied to evaluate possible superimposed sink-source-transformation processes in the coastal waters and a general co-variation scheme is suggested.

Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Secchi depth maps for the Baltic Sea, 2003-2012, with links to GeoTIFs

Secchi depth is a measure of water transparency. In the Baltic Sea region, Secchi depth maps are used to assess eutrophication and as input for habitat models. Due to their spatial and temporal coverage, satellite data would be the most suitable data source for such maps. But the Baltic Sea's optical properties are so different from the open ocean that globally calibrated standard models suffer from large errors. Regional predictive models that take the Baltic Sea's special optical properties into account are thus needed. This paper tests how accurately generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs) with MODIS/Aqua and auxiliary data as inputs can predict Secchi depth at a regional scale. It uses cross-validation to test the prediction accuracy of hundreds of GAMs and GLMs with up to 5 input variables. A GAM with 3 input variables (chlorophyll a, remote sensing reflectance at 678 nm, and long-term mean salinity) made the most accurate predictions. Tested against field observations not used for model selection and calibration, the best model's mean absolute error (MAE) for daily predictions was 1.07 m (22%), more than 50% lower than for other publicly available Baltic Sea Secchi depth maps. The MAE for predicting monthly averages was 0.86 m (15%). Thus, the proposed model selection process was able to find a regional model with good prediction accuracy. It could be useful to find predictive models for environmental variables other than Secchi depth, using data from other satellite sensors, and for other regions where non-standard remote sensing models are needed for prediction and mapping. Annual and monthly mean Secchi depth maps for 2003-2012 come with this paper as Supplementary materials.

Oxygen and carbon isotope stratigraphy of ODP Holes 107-653A and 107-654A

Stable isotope analysis of two species (or groups of species) of planktonic foraminifers: Globigerinoides ruber (or G. obliquus and G. obliquus extremus) and Globigerina bulloides (or G. falconensis and G. obesa) from ODP Hole 653A and Site 654 in the Tyrrhenian basin, records the Pliocene-Pleistocene glacial history of the Northern Hemisphere. The overall increase in mean d18O values through the interval 4.6-0.08 Ma is 1.7 per mil for G. bulloides and 1.5 per mil for G. ruber. The time interval 3.1-2.5 Ma corresponds to an important phase of 18O enrichment for planktonic foraminifers. In this interval, glacial d18O values of both species G. bulloides and G. ruber increase by about l per mil, this increase being more progressive for G. ruber than for G. bulloides. The increase of interglacial d18O values is higher for G. bulloides (1.5 per mil) than for the Gruber group (1 per mil). These data suggest a more pronounced seasonal stratification of the water masses during interglacial phases. Large positive d18O fluctuations of increasing magnitude are also recorded at 2.25 and 2.15 Ma by G bulloides and appear to be diachronous with those of Site 606 in the Atlantic Ocean. Other events of increasing d18O values are recorded between 1.55 and 1.3 Ma, at 0.9 Ma, 0.8 Ma, and near 0.34 Ma. In the early Pliocene the d18O variability recorded by the planktonic species G. bulloides was higher in the Mediterranean than in the Atlantic at the same latitude. This suggests that important cyclic variations in the water budget of the Mediterranean occurred since that time. Step increases in the d18O variability are synchronous with those of the open ocean at 0.9 and 0.34 Ma. The higher variability as well as the higher amplitude of the peaks of 18O enrichment may be partly accounted for by increase of dryness over the Mediterranean area. In particular the high amplitude d18O fluctuations recorded between 3.1 and 2.1 Ma are correlated with the onset of a marked seasonal contrast and a summer dryness, revealed by pollen analyses. Strong fluctuations towards d13C values higher than modern ones are recorded by the G. ruber group species before 1.7 Ma and suggest a high production of phytoplankton. When such episodes of high primary production are correlated with episodes of decreasing 13C content of G. bulloides, they are interpreted as the consequence of a higher stratification of the upper water masses resulting itself from a marked seasonality. Such episodes occur between 4.6 and 4.05 Ma, 3.9 and 3.6 Ma, and 3.25 and 2.66 Ma. The interval 2.66-1.65 Ma corresponds to a weakening of the stratification of the upper water layers. This may be related to episodes of cooling and increasing dryness induced by the Northern Hemisphere Glaciations. The Pleistocene may have been a less productive period. The transition from highly productive to less productive surface waters also coincides with a new step increase in dryness and cooling, between 1.5 and 1.3 Ma. The comparison of the 13C records of G ruber and G. bulloides in fact suggests that a high vertical convection became a dominant feature after 2.6 Ma. Increases in the nutrient input and the stratification of the upper water masses may be suspected, however, during short episodes near 0.86 Ma (isotopic stage 25), 0.57-0.59 Ma (isotopic stage 16), 0.49 Ma (isotopic stage 13), 0.4-0.43 Ma (isotopic stage 11), and 0.22 and 0.26 Ma (part of isotopic stage 7 and transition 7/8). In fact, changes in the C02 balance within the different water masses of the Tyrrhenian basin as well as in the local primary production did not follow the general patterns of the open ocean.