14 resultados para Process Models

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Primary Objectives - Describe and quantify the present strength and variability of the circulation and oceanic processes of the Nordic Seas regions using primarily observations of the long term spread of a tracer purposefully released into the Greenland Sea Gyre in 1996. - Improve our understanding of ocean processes critical to the thermaholine circulation in the Nordic Seas regions so as to be able to predict how this region may respond to climate change. - Assess the role of mixing and ageing of water masses on the carbon transport and the role of the thermohaline circulation in carbon storage using water transports and mixing coefficients derived from the tracer distribution. Specific Objectives Perform annual hydrographic, chemical and SF6 tracer surveys into the Nordic regions in order to: - Measure lateral and diapycnal mixing rates in the Greenland Sea Gyre and in the surrounding regions. - Document the depth and rates of convective mixing in the Greenland Sea using the SF6 and the water masses characteristics. - Measure the transit time and transport of water from the Greenland Sea to surrounding seas and outflows. Document processes of water mass transformation and entrainment occurring to water emanating from the central Greenland Sea. - Measure diapycnal mixing rates in the bottom and margins of the Greenland Sea basin using the SF6 signal observed there. Quantify the potential role of bottom boundary-layer mixing in the ventilation of the Greenland Sea Deep Water in absence of deep convection. Monitor the variability of the entrainment of water from the Greenland Sea using time series auto-sampler moorings at strategic positions i.e., sill of the Denmark Strait, Labrador Sea, Jan Mayen fracture zone and Fram Strait. Relate the observed variability of the tracer signal in the outflows to convection events in the Greenland Sea and local wind stress events. Obtain a better description of deepwater overflow and entrainment processes in the Denmark Strait and Faeroe Bank Channel overflows and use these to improve modelling of deepwater overflows. Monitor the tracer invasion into the North Atlantic using opportunistic SF6 measurements from other cruises: we anticipate that a number of oceanographic cruises will take place in the north-east Atlantic and the Labrador Sea. It should be possible to get samples from some cruises for SF6 measurements. Use process models to describe the spread of the tracer to achieve better parameterisation for three-dimensional models. One reason that these are so resistant to prediction is that our best ocean models are as yet some distance from being good enough, to predict climate and climate change.

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A 160 m mostly turbiditic late Pleistocene sediment sequence (IODP Expedition 308, Hole U1319A) from the Brazos-Trinity intraslope basin system off Texas was investigated with paleo- and rock magnetic methods. Numerous layers depleted in iron oxides and enriched by the ferrimagnetic iron-sulfide mineral greigite (Fe3S4) were detected by diagnostic magnetic properties. From the distribution of these layers, their stratigraphic context and the present geochemical zonation, we develop two conceptual reaction models of greigite formation in non-steady depositional environments. The "sulfidization model" predicts single or twin greigite layers by incomplete transformation of iron monosulfides with polysulfides around the sulfate methane transition (SMT). The "oxidation model" explains greigite formation by partial oxidation of iron monosulfides near the iron redox boundary during periods of downward shifting oxidation fronts. The stratigraphic record provides evidence that both these greigite formation processes act here at typical depths of about 12-14 mbsf and 3-4 mbsf. Numerous "fossil" greigite layers most likely preserved by rapid upward shifts of the redox zonation denote past SMT and sea floor positions characterized by stagnant hemipelagic sedimentation conditions. Six diagenetic stages from a pristine magnetite-dominated to a fully greigite-dominated magnetic mineralogy were differentiated by combination of various hysteresis and remanence parameters.

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Models and data used to describe species-area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species-area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species-area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density-area relationships and occurrence probability-area relationships can alter the form of species-area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied to a variety of study designs and allows the inclusion of additional environmental covariates.