6 resultados para Probability density function
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
Based on the map of landscapes and permafrost conditions in Yakutia (Merzlotno-landshaftnaya karta Yakutskoi0 ASSR, Gosgeodeziya SSSR, 1991), rasterized maps of permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness of Yakutia, East Siberia were derived. The mean and standard deviation at 0.5-degree grid cell size are estimated by assigning a probability density function at 0.001-degree spatial resolution. Spatial pattern of both variables are dominated by a climatic gradient from north to south, and by mountains and the soil type distribution. Uncertainties are highest in mountains and in the sporadic permafrost zone in the south. The maps are best suited as a benchmark for land surface models which include a permafrost module.
Resumo:
Botanical data are widely used as terrestrial proxy data for climate reconstructions. Using a newly established method based on probability density functions (pdf-method), the temperature development throughout the last interglacial, the Eemian, is reconstructed for the two German sites Bispingen and Grobern and the French site La Grande Pile. The results are compared with previous reconstructions using other methods. After a steep increase in January as well as July temperatures in the early phase of the interglacial, the reconstructed most probable climate appears to be slightly warmer than today. While the temperature is reconstructed as relatively stable throughout the Eemian, a certain tendency towards cooler January temperatures is evident. January temperatures decreased from approx. 2-3° C in the early part to approx. -3° C in the later part at Bispingen, and from approx. 2° C to approx. -1° C at Grobern and La Grande Pile. A major drop to about -8° C marks the very end of the interglacial at all three sites. While these results agree well with other proxy data and former reconstructions based on the indicator species method, the results differ significantly from reconstructions based on the modern pollen analogue technique ("pollen transfer functions"). The lack of modern analogues is assumed to be the main reason for the discrepancies. It is concluded that any reconstruction method needs to be evaluated carefully in this respect if used for periods lacking modern analogous plant communities.
Resumo:
Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou, http://www.marinespecies.org/aphia.php?p=taxdetails&id=126439) is a small mesopelagic planktivorous gadoid found throughout the North-East Atlantic. This data contains the results of a model-based analysis of larvae captured by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) during the period 1951-2005. The observations are analysed using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) of the the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in the occurrence of larvae. The best fitting model is chosen using the Aikaike Information Criteria (AIC). The probability of occurrence in the continous plankton recorder is then normalised and converted to a probability distribution function in space (UTM projection Zone 28) and season (day of year). The best fitting model splits the distribution into two separate spawning grounds north and south of a dividing line at 53 N. The probability distribution is therefore normalised in these two regions (ie the space-time integral over each of the two regions is 1). The modelled outputs are on a UTM Zone 28 grid: however, for convenience, the latitude ("lat") and longitude ("lon") of each of these grid points are also included as a variable in the NetCDF file. The assignment of each grid point to either the Northern or Southern component (defined here as north/south of 53 N), is also included as a further variable ("component"). Finally, the day of year ("doy") is stored as the number of days elapsed from and included January 1 (ie doy=1 on January 1) - the year is thereafter divided into 180 grid points.
Resumo:
The large discrepancy between field and laboratory measurements of mineral reaction rates is a long-standing problem in earth sciences, often attributed to factors extrinsic to the mineral itself. Nevertheless, differences in reaction rate are also observed within laboratory measurements, raising the possibility of intrinsic variations as well. Critical insight is available from analysis of the relationship between the reaction rate and its distribution over the mineral surface. This analysis recognizes the fundamental variance of the rate. The resulting anisotropic rate distributions are completely obscured by the common practice of surface area normalization. In a simple experiment using a single crystal and its polycrystalline counterpart, we demonstrate the sensitivity of dissolution rate to grain size, results that undermine the use of "classical" rate constants. Comparison of selected published crystal surface step retreat velocities (Jordan and Rammensee, 1998) as well as large single crystal dissolution data (Busenberg and Plummer, 1986) provide further evidence of this fundamental variability. Our key finding highlights the unsubstantiated use of a single-valued "mean" rate or rate constant as a function of environmental conditions. Reactivity predictions and long-term reservoir stability calculations based on laboratory measurements are thus not directly applicable to natural settings without a probabilistic approach. Such a probabilistic approach must incorporate both the variation of surface energy as a general range (intrinsic variation) as well as constraints to this variation owing to the heterogeneity of complex material (e.g., density of domain borders). We suggest the introduction of surface energy spectra (or the resulting rate spectra) containing information about the probability of existing rate ranges and the critical modes of surface energy.
Resumo:
The high-resolution marine isotope climate record indicates pronounced global cooling during the Langhian (16-13.8 Ma), beginning with the warm middle Miocene climatic optimum and ending with significant Antarctic ice sheet expansion and the transition to "icehouse" conditions. Terrestrial paleoclimate data from this interval is sparse and sometimes conflicting. In particular, there are gaps in the terrestrial record in the Pacific Northwest during the late Langhian and early Serravallian between about 14.5 and 12.5 Ma. New terrestrial paleoclimate data from this time and region could reconcile these conflicting records. Paleosols are particularly useful for reconstructing paleoenvironment because the rate and style of pedogenesis is primarily a function of surface environmental conditions; however, complete and well-preserved paleosols are uncommon. Most soils form in erosive environments that are not preserved, or in environments such as floodplains that accumulate in small increments; the resulting cumulic soils are usually thin, weakly developed, and subject to diagenetic overprinting from subsequent soils. The paleosol at Cricket Flat in northeastern Oregon is an unusually complete and well-preserved paleosol from a middle Miocene volcanic sequence in the Powder River Volcanic Field. An olivine basalt flow buried the paleosol at approximately 13.8 ± 0.6 Ma, based on three 40Ar/39Ar dates on the basalt. We described the Cricket Flat paleosol and used its physical and chemical profile and micromorphology to assess pedogenesis. The Cricket Flat paleosol is an Ultisol-like paleosol, chemically consistent with a high degree of weathering. Temperature and rainfall proxies suggest that Cricket Flat received 1120 ± 180 mm precipitation y-1 and experienced a mean annual temperature of 14.5 ± 2.1 °C during the formation of the paleosol, significantly warmer and wetter than today. This suggests slower cooling after the middle Miocene climatic optimum than is seen in the existing paleosol record.
Resumo:
The wet bulk density is one of the most important parameters of the physical and geological properties of marine sediments. The density is connected directly with sedimentation history and a few sedirnent properties. Knowledge of the fine scale density-depth structure is the base for many model calculations, for both sedimentological and palaeoclimatic research. A density measurement system was designed and built at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven for measuring the wet buk density of sediment cores with high resolution in a non-destructive way. The density is deterrnined by measuring the absorption of Gamma-rays in the sediment. This principle has been used since the 50's in materials research and in the geosciences. In the present case, Cs137 is used as the radioactive source and the intensity is measured by a detector system (scintillator and photomultiplier). Density values are obtainable in both longitudinal core sections and planar cross-sections (the latter are a function of the axial rotation angle). Special studies on inhomogenity can be applied with core rotation. Detection of ice rafted debris (IRD) is made possible with this option. The processes that run the density measurement system are computer controlled. Besides the absorption measurement the core diameter at every measurement point is determined with a potentiometric system. The data values taken are stored on a personal computer. Before starting routine measurements on the sediment cores, a few experiments conceming the statistical aspects of the gamma-ray signal and its accuracy were carried out. These experiments led to such things as the optimum operational parameters. A high spatial resolution in the mm-range is possible with the 4mm-thin gamma-ray measurements. Within five seconds the wet bulk density can be deterrnined with an absolute accuracy of 1%. A comparison between data measured with the new system and conventional measurements on core samples after core splitting shows an agreement within +I- 5% for most of the values. For this thesis, density determinations were carried out on ten sediment cores. A few sediment characteristics are obtainable from using just the standard measurement results without core rotation. In addition to differentes and steps in the absolute density range, variations in the "frequency" of the density-depth structure can be detected due to the close spatial measurement interval and high resolution. Examples from measurements with small (9°) and great (90°) angle increments show that abrupt and smooth transitional changes of sedirnent layers as well as ice rafted debris of several dimensions can be detected and distiflguished clearly. After the presentation of the wet bulk density results, a comparison with data from other investigations was made. Measurements of the electrical resistivity correlated very well with the density data because both parameters are closely related to the porosity of the sedirnent. Additionally, results from measurements of the magnetic susceptibility and from ultra-sonic wave velocity investigations were considered for a integrative interpretation. The correlation of these both parameters and wet bulk density data is strongly dependent on the local (environmental) conditions. Finally, the densities were compared with recordings from sediment-echographic soundings and an X-ray computer tomography analysis. The individual results of all investigations were then finally combined into an accurate picture of the core. Problems of ambiguity, which exist when just one Parameter is determined alone, can be reduced more or less according to the number of parameters and sedimentary characteristics measured. The important role of the density data among other parameters of such an integrated interpretation is evident. Evidence of this role include the high resolution of the measurement, the excellent accuracy and the key position within methods and parameters concerning marine sediments.