Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - a case study for the Gulf of Finland

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).

Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

Dissolution rate spectra data of calcite single crystal and micrite material

The large discrepancy between field and laboratory measurements of mineral reaction rates is a long-standing problem in earth sciences, often attributed to factors extrinsic to the mineral itself. Nevertheless, differences in reaction rate are also observed within laboratory measurements, raising the possibility of intrinsic variations as well. Critical insight is available from analysis of the relationship between the reaction rate and its distribution over the mineral surface. This analysis recognizes the fundamental variance of the rate. The resulting anisotropic rate distributions are completely obscured by the common practice of surface area normalization. In a simple experiment using a single crystal and its polycrystalline counterpart, we demonstrate the sensitivity of dissolution rate to grain size, results that undermine the use of "classical" rate constants. Comparison of selected published crystal surface step retreat velocities (Jordan and Rammensee, 1998) as well as large single crystal dissolution data (Busenberg and Plummer, 1986) provide further evidence of this fundamental variability. Our key finding highlights the unsubstantiated use of a single-valued "mean" rate or rate constant as a function of environmental conditions. Reactivity predictions and long-term reservoir stability calculations based on laboratory measurements are thus not directly applicable to natural settings without a probabilistic approach. Such a probabilistic approach must incorporate both the variation of surface energy as a general range (intrinsic variation) as well as constraints to this variation owing to the heterogeneity of complex material (e.g., density of domain borders). We suggest the introduction of surface energy spectra (or the resulting rate spectra) containing information about the probability of existing rate ranges and the critical modes of surface energy.

Constraints on the magnitude and patterns of ocean cooling at the Last Glacial Maximum - Supplementary material

Observation-based reconstructions of sea surface temperature from relatively stable periods in the past, such as the Last Glacial Maximum, represent an important means of constraining climate sensitivity and evaluating model simulations. The first quantitative global reconstruction of sea surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum was developed by the Climate Long-Range Investigation, Mapping and Prediction (CLIMAP) project in the 1970s and 1980s. Since that time, several shortcomings of that earlier effort have become apparent. Here we present an updated synthesis of sea surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum, rigorously defined as the period between 23 and 19 thousand years before present, from the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO) project. We integrate microfossil and geochemical reconstructions of surface temperatures and include assessments of the reliability of individual records. Our reconstruction reveals the presence of large longitudinal gradients in sea surface temperature in all of the ocean basins, in contrast to the simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum climate available at present.

Lake Baikal amphipods under climate change: Thermal constraints and ecological consequences, links to supplementary material

Lake Baikal, the world's most voluminous freshwater lake, has experienced unprecedented warming during the last decades. A uniquely diverse amphipod fauna inhabits the littoral zone and can serve as a model system to identify the role of thermal tolerance under climate change. This study aimed to identify sublethal thermal constraints in two of the most abundant endemic Baikal amphipods, Eulimnogammarus verrucosus and Eulimnogammarus cyaneus, and Gammarus lacustris, a ubiquitous gammarid of the Holarctic. As the latter is only found in some shallow isolated bays of the lake, we further addressed the question whether rising temperatures could promote the widespread invasion of this non-endemic species into the littoral zone. Animals were exposed to gradual temperature increases (4 week, 0.8 °C/d; 24 h, 1 °C/h) starting from the reported annual mean temperature of the Baikal littoral (6 °C). Within the framework of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT), we used a nonlinear regression approach to determine the points at which the changing temperature-dependence of relevant physiological processes indicates the onset of limitation. Limitations in ventilation representing the first limits of thermal tolerance (pejus (= "getting worse") temperatures (Tp)) were recorded at 10.6 (95% confidence interval; 9.5, 11.7), 19.1 (17.9, 20.2), and 21.1 (19.8, 22.4) °C in E. verrucosus, E. cyaneus, and G. lacustris, respectively. Field observations revealed that E. verrucosus retreated from the upper littoral to deeper and cooler waters once its Tp was surpassed, identifying Tp as the ecological thermal boundary. Constraints in oxygen consumption at higher than critical temperatures (Tc) led to an exponential increase in mortality in all species. Exposure to short-term warming resulted in higher threshold values, consistent with a time dependence of thermal tolerance. In conclusion, species-specific limits to oxygen supply capacity are likely key in the onset of constraining (beyond pejus) and then life-threatening (beyond critical) conditions. Ecological consequences of these limits are mediated through behavioral plasticity in E. verrucosus. However, similar upper thermal limits in E. cyaneus (endemic, Baikal) and G. lacustris (ubiquitous, Holarctic) indicate that the potential invader G. lacustris would not necessarily benefit from rising temperatures. Secondary effects of increasing temperatures remain to be investigated.

Decision evaluation in complex risk network systems (DecernsSDSS) demo and Black River case study

The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality of monitoring programs and characterizing project success. Moreover it is oftentimes very difficult to balance the importance of multiple ecological, social, and economical metrics. Metric selection process is a complex and must simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. We propose multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, for the selection of optimal sets of metrics to enhance evaluation of ecosystem restoration alternatives. Two MCDA methods, a multiattribute utility analysis (MAUT), and a probabilistic multicriteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), are applied and compared for a hypothetical case study of a river restoration involving multiple stakeholders. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, unbiased, and transparent solution, informing restoration alternatives evaluation. The two methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criteria, it is suggested as the best option if data uncertainty is high. Despite the increase in complexity in the metric selection process, MCDA improves upon the current ad-hoc decision practice based on the consultations with stakeholders and experts, and encourages transparent and quantitative aggregation of data and judgement, increasing the transparency of decision making in restoration projects. We believe that MCDA can enhance the overall sustainability of ecosystem by enhancing both ecological and societal needs.

Dinoflagellate cysts of the Early Cretaceous North Atlantic Ocean

Early Cretaceous dinoflagellate cysts were reinvestigated from nine deep-sea sites of the North and Central Atlantic. In general the zonation scheme developed for the western Central Atlantic (Habib, 1977; Habib and Drugg, 1983 ) can also be applied to the eastern Central Atlantic. Comparison with the probabilistic zonation of Gradstein et al. (1992) show, however, that the first occurrences of the important marker species Druggidium apicopaucicure, Druggidium deflandrei, Druggidium rhabdoreticulatum and Odontochitina operculata appear to occur slightly later in the eastern Central Atlantic in respect to nannofossils and benthic foraminifers. Muderongia neocomica has a shorter stratigraphic range in the eastern Central Atlantic than in the western Central Atlantic.

Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Sedimentological investigations and age constraints of sediment cores from the outer Abbot trough, Amundsen Sea shelf

Knowing the extent of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is crucial for initiating and calibrating numerical ice sheet models that can predict future ice-sheet change and contributions to sea level. However, empirical data are lacking for key areas of outer continental shelves, where the LGM-WAIS must have terminated. We present detailed marine geophysical and geological data documenting an up to ~12 m-thick sequence of glaciomarine sediments within a relict glacial trough in the outer parts of the Amundsen Sea Embayment. Continuous deposition must have persisted here since at least >40 ka BP, pre-dating the established LGM by >13,000 years. Observations constrain the LGM grounding line to a distinct grounding-zone wedge ~100 km inland from the continental shelf edge. Thus, a substantial shelf area (~6000 km**2) remained ice free through the last glacial cycle.

Magnetic charachterization of surface sediments in the South Atlantic

Surface sediment samples representative for the tropical and subtropical South Atlantic (15°N to 40°S) were investigated by isothermal magnetic methods to delineate magnetic mineral distribution patterns and to identify their predominant Holocene climatic and oceanographic controls. Individual parameters reveal distinct, yet frequently overlapping, regional sedimentation characteristics. A probabilistic ('fuzzy c-means') cluster analysis was applied to five concentration independent magnetic properties assessing magnetite to hematite ratios and diagnostic of bulk and fine-particle magnetite grain size and coercivity spectra. The resultant 10 cluster structures establish an oceanwide magnetic sediment classification scheme tracing the major terrigenous eolian and fluvial fluxes, authigenic biogenic magnetite accumulation in high-productivity areas, transport by ocean current systems, and effects of bottom water velocity on depositional regimes. Distinct dissimilarities in magnetic mineral inventories between the eastern and western basins of the South Atlantic reflect prominent contrasts of both oceanic and continental influences.

Sources and seasonality of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons transported to Alert, Canadian Arctic

A probabilistic function (integrated source contribution function, ISCF) based on backward air mass trajectory calculation was developed to track sources and atmospheric pathways of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) to the Canadian High Arctic station of Alert. In addition to the movement of air masses, the emission intensities at the sources and the major processes of partition, indirect photolysis, and deposition occurring on the way to the Arctic were incorporated into the ISCF. The predicted temporal trend of PAHs at Alert was validated by measured PAH concentrations throughout 2004. The PAH levels in the summer are orders of magnitude lower than those in the winter and spring when long-range atmospheric transport events occur more frequently. PAHs observed at Alert are mostly from East Asia (including Russia Far East), North Europe (including European Russia), and North America. These sources account for 25, 45, and 27% of PAHs atmospheric level at Alert, respectively. Source regions and transport pathways contributing to the PAHs contamination in the Canadian High Arctic vary seasonally. In the winter, Russia and Europe are the major sources. PAHs from these sources travel eastward and turn to the north at approximately 120°E before reaching Alert, in conjunction with the well- known Arctic haze events. In the spring, PAHs from Russia and Europe first migrate to the west and then turn to the north at 60°W toward Alert. The majority of PAHs in the summer are from northern Canada where they are carried to Alert via low- level transport pathways. In the fall, 70% of PAHs arriving at Alert are delivered from North American sources.

Estimated chronologic ages of benthic microfossil events in ODP Site 105-647 (Table 1)

Benthic foraminifers were examined from the Paleogene of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 647 and Deep Sea Drilling Program (DSDP) Site 112 in the southern Labrador Sea. The Paleogene sequence of the deep Labrador Sea can be subdivided into seven assemblages, based on the ranges and relative abundance of characteristic taxa. The first occurrences (FOs) and last occurrences (LOs) of important benthic taxa are calibrated to a standard biochronology, by interpolating from our age model for Site 647. The biostratigraphy of Site 647 is used to improve the age estimates of Site112 cores. Fifteen microfossil events in Site 647 also are found in the sedimentary wedge along the Labrador Margin. A comparison of the probabilistic microfossil sequence from the Labrador Margin with that at Site 647 yields four isochronous benthic foraminifer LOs. Two new species are described from Sites 647 and 112: Hyperammina kenmilleri, Kaminski n.sp., and Ammodiscus nagyi Kaminski n.sp. Significant faunal turnovers are observed at the Ypresian/Lutetian and Eocene/Oligocene boundaries. The Ypresian/Lutetian boundary is characterized by a Glomospira-facies and is attributed to a rise in the CCD (carbonate compensation depth) associated with the NP14 lowstand in sea level. The Eocene/Oligocene boundary is delimited by the LO of Spiroplectammina spectabilis and Reticulophragmium amplectens. The change from an Eocene agglutinated assemblageto a predominantly calcareous assemblage in the early Oligocene took place gradually, over a period of about 4 Ma, but the rate of change accelerated near the boundary. This faunal turnover is attributed to changes in the preservationof agglutinated foraminifers, as delicate species disappeared first. Increasingly poorer preservation of agglutinated foraminifers in the late Eocene to earliest Oligocene reflects the first appearance of cool, nutrient-poor deep water in the southern Labrador Sea. The approximately coeval disappearance of agglutinated assemblages along the Labrador Margin was caused by a regional trend from slope to shelf environments, accentuated by the 'mid'-Oligocene lowstand in sea level.