Results of modelled Arctic river discharge trends since 7 ka BP

The Arctic hydrological cycle throughout the Holocene is analyzed based on the results of transient simulations with the coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model ECHO-G. The results suggest a ~ 2 % increase of mid-Holocene to preindustrial Arctic river discharges for the Eurasian continent. However, rivers of the North America Arctic realm show a moderate runoff decline of approximately 4 to 5 % for the same period. The total river discharge into the Arctic Ocean has remained at an approximately constant preindustrial level since the mid Holocene. The positive discharge trend within Eurasia is caused by a more rapid decrease in local net evaporation compared to a smaller decline in advected moisture and hence precipitation. This effect is neither recognized within the North American Arctic domain nor in the far eastern part of the Eurasian Arctic realm. A detailed comparison of these model findings with a variety of proxy studies is conducted. The collected proxy records show trends of continental surface temperatures and precipitation rates that are consistent with the simulations. A continuation of the transient Holocene runs for the 19th and 20th century with increased greenhouse gases indicates an increase of the total river influx into the Arctic Ocean of up to 7.6 %. The Eurasian river discharges increase by 7.5 %, the North American discharges by up to 8.4 %. The most rapid increases have been detected since the beginning of the 20th century. These results are corroborated by the observed rising of Arctic river discharges during the last century which is attributed to anthropogenic warming. The acceleration of the Arctic hydrological cycle in the 20th century is without precedence in the Holocene.

Constraints on the magnitude and patterns of ocean cooling at the Last Glacial Maximum - Supplementary material

Observation-based reconstructions of sea surface temperature from relatively stable periods in the past, such as the Last Glacial Maximum, represent an important means of constraining climate sensitivity and evaluating model simulations. The first quantitative global reconstruction of sea surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum was developed by the Climate Long-Range Investigation, Mapping and Prediction (CLIMAP) project in the 1970s and 1980s. Since that time, several shortcomings of that earlier effort have become apparent. Here we present an updated synthesis of sea surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum, rigorously defined as the period between 23 and 19 thousand years before present, from the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO) project. We integrate microfossil and geochemical reconstructions of surface temperatures and include assessments of the reliability of individual records. Our reconstruction reveals the presence of large longitudinal gradients in sea surface temperature in all of the ocean basins, in contrast to the simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum climate available at present.

Lake Baikal amphipods under climate change: Thermal constraints and ecological consequences, links to supplementary material

Lake Baikal, the world's most voluminous freshwater lake, has experienced unprecedented warming during the last decades. A uniquely diverse amphipod fauna inhabits the littoral zone and can serve as a model system to identify the role of thermal tolerance under climate change. This study aimed to identify sublethal thermal constraints in two of the most abundant endemic Baikal amphipods, Eulimnogammarus verrucosus and Eulimnogammarus cyaneus, and Gammarus lacustris, a ubiquitous gammarid of the Holarctic. As the latter is only found in some shallow isolated bays of the lake, we further addressed the question whether rising temperatures could promote the widespread invasion of this non-endemic species into the littoral zone. Animals were exposed to gradual temperature increases (4 week, 0.8 °C/d; 24 h, 1 °C/h) starting from the reported annual mean temperature of the Baikal littoral (6 °C). Within the framework of oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance (OCLTT), we used a nonlinear regression approach to determine the points at which the changing temperature-dependence of relevant physiological processes indicates the onset of limitation. Limitations in ventilation representing the first limits of thermal tolerance (pejus (= "getting worse") temperatures (Tp)) were recorded at 10.6 (95% confidence interval; 9.5, 11.7), 19.1 (17.9, 20.2), and 21.1 (19.8, 22.4) °C in E. verrucosus, E. cyaneus, and G. lacustris, respectively. Field observations revealed that E. verrucosus retreated from the upper littoral to deeper and cooler waters once its Tp was surpassed, identifying Tp as the ecological thermal boundary. Constraints in oxygen consumption at higher than critical temperatures (Tc) led to an exponential increase in mortality in all species. Exposure to short-term warming resulted in higher threshold values, consistent with a time dependence of thermal tolerance. In conclusion, species-specific limits to oxygen supply capacity are likely key in the onset of constraining (beyond pejus) and then life-threatening (beyond critical) conditions. Ecological consequences of these limits are mediated through behavioral plasticity in E. verrucosus. However, similar upper thermal limits in E. cyaneus (endemic, Baikal) and G. lacustris (ubiquitous, Holarctic) indicate that the potential invader G. lacustris would not necessarily benefit from rising temperatures. Secondary effects of increasing temperatures remain to be investigated.

Sedimentological investigations and age constraints of sediment cores from the outer Abbot trough, Amundsen Sea shelf

Knowing the extent of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is crucial for initiating and calibrating numerical ice sheet models that can predict future ice-sheet change and contributions to sea level. However, empirical data are lacking for key areas of outer continental shelves, where the LGM-WAIS must have terminated. We present detailed marine geophysical and geological data documenting an up to ~12 m-thick sequence of glaciomarine sediments within a relict glacial trough in the outer parts of the Amundsen Sea Embayment. Continuous deposition must have persisted here since at least >40 ka BP, pre-dating the established LGM by >13,000 years. Observations constrain the LGM grounding line to a distinct grounding-zone wedge ~100 km inland from the continental shelf edge. Thus, a substantial shelf area (~6000 km**2) remained ice free through the last glacial cycle.

Ocean acidification outweighs nutrient effects in structuring seagrass epiphyte communities

1. Developing a framework for assessing interactions between multiple anthropogenic stressors remains an important goal in environmental research. In coastal ecosystems, the relative effects of aspects of global climate change (e.g. CO2 concentrations) and localized stressors (e.g. eutrophication), in combination, have received limited attention. 2. Using a long-term (11 month) field experiment, we examine how epiphyte assemblages in a tropical seagrass meadow respond to factorial manipulations of dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2(aq)) and nutrient enrichment. In situ CO2(aq) manipulations were conducted using clear, open-top chambers, which replicated carbonate parameter forecasts for the year 2100. Nutrient enrichment consisted of monthly additions of slow-release fertilizer, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), to the sediments at rates equivalent to theoretical maximum rates of anthropogenic loading within the region (1.54 g N/m**2/d and 0.24 g P m**2/d). 3. Epiphyte community structure was assessed on a seasonal basis and revealed declines in the abundance of coralline algae, along with increases in filamentous algae under elevated CO2(aq). Surprisingly, nutrient enrichment had no effect on epiphyte community structure or overall epiphyte loading. Interactions between CO2(aq) and nutrient enrichment were not detected. Furthermore, CO2(aq)-mediated responses in the epiphyte community displayed strong seasonality, suggesting that climate change studies in variable environments should be conducted over extended time-scales. 4. Synthesis. The observed responses indicate that for certain locations, global stressors such as ocean acidification may take precedence over local eutrophication in altering the community structure of seagrass epiphyte assemblages. Given that nutrient-driven algal overgrowth is commonly cited as a widespread cause of seagrass decline, our findings highlight that alternate climate change forces may exert proximate control over epiphyte community structure.

Modes of sapropel formation in the eastern Mediterranean: some constraints based on pyrite properties

Pyrite formation within and directly below sapropels in the eastern Mediterranean was governed by the relative rates of sulphide production and Fe liberation and supply to the organic-rich layers. At times of relatively high [SO4]2- reduction, sulphide could diffuse downward from the sapropel and formed pyrite in underlying sediments. The sources of Fe for pyrite formation comprised detrital Fe and diagenetically liberated Fe(II) from sapropel-underlying sediments. In organic-rich sapropels, input of Fe from the water column via Fe sulphide formation in the water may have been important as well. Rapid pyrite formation at high saturation levels resulted in the formation of framboidal pyrite within the sapropels, whereas below the sapropels slow euhedral pyrite formation at low saturation levels occurred. d34S values of pyrite are -33 per mil to -50 per mil. Below the sapropels d34S is lower than within the sapropels, as a result of increased sulphide re-oxidation at times of relatively high sulphide production and concentration when sulphide could escape from the sediment. The percentage of initially formed sulphide that was re-oxidized was estimated from organic carbon fluxes and burial efficiencies in the sediment. It ranges from 34% to 80%, varying significantly between sapropels. Increased palaeoproductivity as well as enhanced preservation contributed to magnified accumulation of organic matter in sapropels.