Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Response of deep-sea benthic foraminifera to Late Quaternary climate changes, southeast Indian Ocean, offshore Western Australia

The Late Quaternary benthic foraminifera of four deep-sea cores off Western Australia (ODP 122-760A, ODP 122-762B, BMR96GC21 and RC9-150) have been examined for evidence of increased surface productivity to explain the anomalously low sea-surface paleotemperatures inferred by planktic foraminifera for the last and penultimate glaciations. The delta13C trends of Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi, and differences between the delta13C trends of planktics (Globigerinoides sacculifer) and benthics (C. wuellerstorfi) in the four cores indicate that during stage 6 bottom waters were significantly depleted in delta13C, and strong delta13C gradients were established in the water column, while during stage 2 and the Last Glacial Maximum, delta13C trends did not differ greatly from that of the Holocene. Two main assemblages of benthic foraminifera were identified by principal component analyses: one dominated by Uvigerina peregrina, another dominated by U. proboscidea. Abundance of these Uvigerinids, and of taxa preferring an infaunal microhabitat, and of Epistominella exigua and Bulimina aculeata indicate that episodes of high influx of particulate organic matter were established in most sites during glacial episodes, and particularly so during stage 6, while evidence for upwelling during the Last Glacial Maximum is less strong. The Penultimate Glaciation upwellings were established within the areas of low sea-surface paleotemperature indicated by planktic foraminifera. During the Last Interglacial Climax, upwelling appears to have been established in an isolated region offshore from a strengthened Leeuwin Current off North West Cape. Last Glacial Maximum delta13C values of C. wuellerstorfi at waterdepths of less than 2000 m show smaller than global mean glacial-interglacial changes suggesting the development of a deep hydrological front. A similar vertical stratification/bathyal front was also established during the Penultimate Glaciation.

Model results in NetCDF format of North African vegetation-precipitation in early and mid-Holocene climate simulated by CCSM3-DGVM//

The present study analyses the sign, strength, and working mechanism of the vegetation-precipitation feedback over North Africa in middle (6 ka BP) and early Holocene (9 ka BP) simulations using the comprehensive coupled climate-vegetation model CCSM3-DGVM (Community Climate System Model version 3 and a dynamic global vegetation model). The coupled model simulates enhanced summer rainfall and a northward migration of the West African monsoon trough along with an expansion of the vegetation cover for the early and middle Holocene compared to the pre-industrial period. It is shown that dynamic vegetation enhances the orbitally triggered summer precipitation anomaly by approximately 20% in the Sahara-Sahel region (10-25° N, 20° W-30° E) in both the early and mid-Holocene experiments compared to their fixed-vegetation counterparts. The primary vegetation-rainfall feedback identified here operates through surface latent heat flux anomalies by canopy evaporation and transpiration and their effect on the mid-tropospheric African easterly jet, whereas the effects of vegetation changes on surface albedo and local water recycling play a negligible role. Even though CCSM3-DGVM simulates a positive vegetation-precipitation feedback in the North African region, this feedback is not strong enough to produce multiple equilibrium climate-ecosystem states on a regional scale.