Preliminary ichthyolith biostratigraphy and age profiles at DSDP Sites 91-595 and 91-596

Seventy meters of Cenozoic and Mesozoic pelagic clay cored at DSDP Sites 595 and 596 provide the basis for a preliminary analysis of ichthyolith biostratigraphy in the southwest Pacific. A most likely order of the more reliable ichthyolith events is compared with a synthesis of ichthyolith biostratigraphy in the North Pacific and with dated composite ranges. The resultant preliminary ichthyolith stratigraphy suggests that the Cenozoic is represented by the upper 20 m at Site 596 and 16 to 22 m at Site 595. Mixing of taxa precludes a clear recognition of the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary at Site 595. The occurrence of 13 newly described subtypes is recorded in Mesozoic sediments at Sites 595 and 596. These new subtypes and previously described Mesozoic forms may be useful for recognizing Mesozoic subdivisions when their occurrences in sequences dated by other microfossils are investigated.

Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.