An individual based model spatial distribution, production and biomass for Calanus finmarchicus in the Norwegian Sea

The copepod Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant species of the meso-zooplankton in the Norwegian Sea, and constitutes an important link between the phytoplankton and the higher trophic levels in the Norwegian Sea food chain. An individualbased model for C. finmarchicus, based on super-individuals and evolving traits for behaviour, stages, etc., is two-way coupled to the NORWegian ECOlogical Model system (NORWECOM). One year of modelled C. finmarchicus spatial distribution, production and biomass are found to represent observations reasonably well. High C. finmarchicus abundance is found along the Norwegian shelf-break in the early summer, while the overwintering population is found along the slope and in the deeper Norwegian Sea basins. The timing of the spring bloom is generally later than in the observations. Annual Norwegian Sea production is found to be 29 million tonnes of carbon and a production to biomass (P/B) ratio of 4.3 emerges. Sensitivity tests show that the modelling system is robust to initial values of behavioural traits and with regards to the number of super-individuals simulated given that this is above about 50,000 individuals. Experiments with the model system indicate that it provides a valuable tool for studies of ecosystem responses to causative forces such as prey density or overwintering population size. For example, introducing C. finmarchicus food limitations reduces the stock dramatically, but on the other hand, a reduced stock may rebuild in one year under normal conditions. The NetCDF file contains model grid coordinates and bottom topography.

Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Population structure, growth and production of the surf clam Donax hanleyanus (Bivalvia: Donacidae) from northern Argentinean beaches

The surf clams Mesodesma mactroides Reeve, 1854 and Donax hanleyanus Philippi, 1847 are the two dominating species in macrobenthic communities of sandy beaches off northern Argentina, with the latter now surpassing M. mactroides populations in abundance and biomass. Before stock decimation caused by exploitation (during the 1940s and 1950s) and mass mortality events (1995, 1999 and 2007) M. mactroides was the prominent primary consumer in the intertidal ecosystem and an important economic resource in Argentina. Since D. hanleyanus was not commercially fished and not affected by mass mortality events, it took over as the dominant species, but did never reach the former abundance of M. mactroides. Currently abundance and biomass of both surf clams are a multiple smaller than those of forty years ago, indicating the conservation status of D. hanleyanus and M. mactroides as endangered. Therefore the aim of this study is to analyse the population dynamics (population structure, growth and reproductive biology) of D. hanleyanus and M. mactroides, and to compare the results with historical data in order to detect possible differences within surf clam populations forty years ago and at present.

World distribution of land cover changes, model in NetCDF format

The role of Pre- and Protohistoric anthropogenic land cover changes needs to be quantified i) to establish a baseline for comparison with current human impact on the environment and ii) to separate it from naturally occurring changes in our environment. Results are presented from the simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES) for pre-Bronze age demographic, technological and economic change. Using scaling parameters from the History Database of the Global Environment as well as GLUES-simulated population density and subsistence style, the land requirement for growing crops is estimated. The intrusion of cropland into potentially forested areas is translated into carbon loss due to deforestation with the dynamic global vegetation model VECODE. The land demand in important Prehistoric growth areas - converted from mostly forested areas - led to large-scale regional (country size) deforestation of up to 11% of the potential forest. In total, 29 Gt carbon were lost from global forests between 10 000 BC and 2000 BC and were replaced by crops; this value is consistent with other estimates of Prehistoric deforestation. The generation of realistic (agri-)cultural development trajectories at a regional resolution is a major strength of GLUES. Most of the pre-Bronze age deforestation is simulated in a broad farming belt from Central Europe via India to China. Regional carbon loss is, e.g., 5 Gt in Europe and the Mediterranean, 6 Gt on the Indian subcontinent, 18 Gt in East and Southeast Asia, or 2.3 Gt in subsaharan Africa.

The photo-physiological response of a model cnidarian-dinoflagellate symbiosis to CO2-induced acidification at the cellular level

We measured the relationship between CO2-induced seawater acidification, photo-physiological performance and intracellular pH (pHi) in a model cnidarian-dinoflagellate symbiosis - the sea anemone Aiptasia sp. -under ambient (289.94 ± 12.54 µatm), intermediate (687.40 ± 25.10 µatm) and high (1459.92 ± 65.51 µatm) CO2 conditions. These treatments represented current CO2 levels, in addition to CO2 stabilisation scenarios IV and VI provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Anemones were exposed to each treatment for two months and sampled at regular intervals. At each time-point we measured a series of physiological responses: maximum dark-adapted fluorescent yield of PSII (Fv/Fm), gross photosynthetic rate, respiration rate, symbiont population density, and light-adapted pHi of both the dinoflagellate symbiont and isolated host anemone cell. We observed increases in all but one photo-physiological parameter (Pgross:R ratio). At the cellular level, increases in light-adapted symbiont pHi were observed under both intermediate and high CO2 treatments, relative to control conditions (pHi 7.35 and 7.46 versus pHi 7.25, respectively). The response of light-adapted host pHi was more complex, however, with no change observed under the intermediate CO2 treatment, but a 0.3 pH-unit increase under the high CO2 treatment (pHi 7.19 and 7.48, respectively). This difference is likely a result of a disproportionate increase in photosynthesis relative to respiration at the higher CO2 concentration. Our results suggest that, rather than causing cellular acidosis, the addition of CO2 will enhance photosynthetic performance, enabling both the symbiont and host cell to withstand predicted ocean acidification scenarios.

Theoretical model simulations for variations in thermal reaction norms

Thermal reaction norms for growth rates of six Emiliania huxleyi isolates originating from the central Atlantic (Azores, Portugal) and five isolates from the coastal North Atlantic (Bergen, Norway) were assessed. We used the template mode of variation model to decompose variations in growth rates into modes of biological interest: vertical shift, horizontal shift, and generalist-specialist variation. In line with the actual habitat conditions, isolates from Bergen (Bergen population) grew well at lower temperatures, and isolates from the Azores (Azores population) performed better at higher temperatures. The optimum growth temperature of the Azores population was significantly higher than that of the Bergen population. Neutral genetic differentiation was found between populations by microsatellite analysis. These findings indicate that E. huxleyi populations are adapted to local temperature regimes. Next to between-population variation, we also found variation within populations. Genotype-by-environment interactions resulted in the most pronounced phenotypic differences when isolates were exposed to temperatures outside the range they naturally encounter. Variation in thermal reaction norms between and within populations emphasizes the importance of using more than one isolate when studying the consequences of global change on marine phytoplankton. Phenotypic plasticity and standing genetic variation will be important in determining the potential of natural E. huxleyi populations to cope with global climate change.