Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

Nitrate limitation and ocean acidification interact with UV-B to reduce photosynthetic performance in the diatom

It has been proposed that ocean acidification (OA) will interact with other environmental factors to influence the overall impact of global change on biological systems. Accordingly we investigated the influence of nitrogen limitation and OA on the physiology of diatoms by growing the diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum Bohlin under elevated (1000 µatm; high CO2- HC) or ambient (390 µatm; low CO2-LC) levels of CO2 with replete (110 µmol/L; high nitrate-HN) or reduced (10 ?mol/L; low nitrate-LN) levels of NO3- and subjecting the cells to solar radiation with or without UV irradiance to determine their susceptibility to UV radiation (UVR, 280-400 nm). Our results indicate that OA and UVB induced significantly higher inhibition of both the photosynthetic rate and quantum yield under LN than under HN conditions. UVA or/and UVB increased the cells' non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) regardless of the CO2 levels. Under LN and OA conditions, activity of superoxide dismutase and catalase activities were enhanced, along with the highest sensitivity to UVB and the lowest ratio of repair to damage of PSII. HC-grown cells showed a faster recovery rate of yield under HN but not under LN conditions. We conclude therefore that nutrient limitation makes cells more prone to the deleterious effects of UV radiation and that HC conditions (ocean acidification) exacerbate this effect. The finding that nitrate limitation and ocean acidification interact with UV-B to reduce photosynthetic performance of the diatom P. tricornutum implies that ocean primary production and the marine biological C pump will be affected by OA under multiple stressors.

Temperature and acidification variability reduce physiological performance in the intertidal zone porcelain crab Petrolisthes//cinctipes

We show here that increased variability of temperature and pH synergistically negatively affects the energetics of intertidal zone crabs. Under future climate scenarios, coastal ecosystems are projected to have increased extremes of low tide-associated thermal stress and ocean acidification-associated low pH, the individual or interactive effects of which have yet to be determined. To characterize energetic consequences of exposure to increased variability of pH and temperature, we exposed porcelain crabs, Petrolisthes cinctipes, to conditions that simulated current and future intertidal zone thermal and pH environments. During the daily low tide, specimens were exposed to no, moderate or extreme heating, and during the daily high tide experienced no, moderate or extreme acidification. Respiration rate and cardiac thermal limits were assessed following 2.5 weeks of acclimation. Thermal variation had a larger overall effect than pH variation, though there was an interactive effect between the two environmental drivers. Under the most extreme temperature and pH combination, respiration rate decreased while heat tolerance increased, indicating a smaller overall aerobic energy budget (i.e. a reduced O2 consumption rate) of which a larger portion is devoted to basal maintenance (i.e. greater thermal tolerance indicating induction of the cellular stress response). These results suggest the potential for negative long-term ecological consequences for intertidal ectotherms exposed to increased extremes in pH and temperature due to reduced energy for behavior and reproduction.