Measured daily precipitation sums over Central Sulawesi for the period 1981-1999

Data compiled within the IMPENSO project. The Impact of ENSO on Sustainable Water Management and the Decision-Making Community at a Rainforest Margin in Indonesia (IMPENSO), http://www.gwdg.de/~impenso, was a German-Indonesian research project (2003-2007) that has studied the impact of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) on the water resources and the agricultural production in the PALU RIVER watershed in Central Sulawesi. ENSO is a climate variability that causes serious droughts in Indonesia and other countries of South-East Asia. The last ENSO event occurred in 1997. As in other regions, many farmers in Central Sulawesi suffered from reduced crop yields and lost their livestock. A better prediction of ENSO and the development of coping strategies would help local communities mitigate the impact of ENSO on rural livelihoods and food security. The IMPENSO project deals with the impact of the climate variability ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on water resource management and the local communities in the Palu River watershed of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The project consists of three interrelated sub-projects, which study the local and regional manifestation of ENSO using the Regional Climate Models REMO and GESIMA (Sub-project A), quantify the impact of ENSO on the availability of water for agriculture and other uses, using the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Sub-project B), and analyze the socio-economic impact and the policy implications of ENSO on the basis of a production function analysis, a household vulnerability analysis, and a linear programming model (Sub-project C). The models used in the three sub-projects will be integrated to simulate joint scenarios that are defined in collaboration with local stakeholders and are relevant for the design of coping strategies.

Age model for ODP Leg 175 sites

Upwelling along the western coast of Africa south of the equator may be partitioned into three major areas, each having its own dynamics and history: (1) the eastern equatorial region, comprising the Congo Fan and the area of Mid-Angola; (2) the Namibia upwelling system, extending from the Walvis Ridge to Lüderitz; and (3) the Cape Province region, where upwelling is subdued. The highest nutrient contents in thermocline waters are in the northern region, the lowest in the southern one. Wind effects are at a maximum near the southern end of the Namibia upwelling system, and maximum productivity occurs near Walvis Bay, where the product between upwelling rate and nutrient content of upwelled waters is at a maximum. In the Congo/Angola region, opal tends to follow organic carbon quite closely in the Quaternary record. However, organic carbon has a strong precessional component, while opal does not. Despite relatively low opal content, sediments off Angola show the same patterns as those off the Congo; thus, they are part of the same regime. The spectrum shows nonlinear interference patterns between high- and low-latitude forcing, presumably tied to thermocline fertility and wind. On Walvis Ridge, as in the Congo-Angola region, the organic matter record behaves normally; that is, supply is high during glacial periods. In contrast, interglacial periods are favorable for opal deposition. The pattern suggests reduction in silicate content of the thermocline during glacial periods. The reversed phase (opal abundant during interglacials) persists during the entire Pleistocene and can be demonstrated deep into the Pliocene, not just on Walvis Ridge but all the way to the Oranje River and off the Cape Province. From comparison with other regions, it appears that silicate is diminished in the global thermocline, on average, whenever winds become strong enough to substantially shorten the residence time of silicate in upper waters (Walvis Hypothesis, solving the Walvis Paradox of reversed phase in opal deposition). The central discovery during Leg 175 was the documentation of a late Pliocene opal maximum for the entire Namibia upwelling system (early Matuyama Diatom Maximum [MDM]). The maximum is centered on the period between the end of the Gauss Chron and the beginning of the Olduvai Chron. A rather sharp increase in both organic matter deposition and opal deposition occurs near 3 Ma in the middle of the Gauss Chron, in association with a series of major cooling steps. As concerns organic matter, high production persists at least to 1 Ma, when there are large changes in variability, heralding subsequent pulsed production periods. From 3 to 2 Ma, organic matter and opal deposition run more or less parallel, but after 2 Ma opal goes out of phase with organic matter. Apparently, this is the point when silicate becomes limiting to opal production. Thus, the MDM conundrum is solved by linking planetary cooling to increased mixing and upwelling (ramping up to the MDM) and a general removal of silicate from the upper ocean through excess precipitation over global supply (ramping down from the MDM). The hypothesis concerning the origin of the Namibia opal acme or MDM is fundamentally the same as the Walvis Hypothesis, stating that glacial conditions result in removal of silicate from the thermocline (and quite likely from the ocean as a whole, given enough time). The Namibia opal acme, and other opal maxima in the latest Neogene in other regions of the ocean, marks the interval when a cooling ocean selectively removes the abundant silicate inherited from a warm ocean. When the excess silicate is removed, the process ceases. According to the data gathered during Leg 175, major upwelling started in the late part of the late Miocene. Presumably, this process contributed to the drawing down of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, helping to prepare the way for Northern Hemisphere glaciation.

Towards convection-resolving, global atmospheric simulations with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) v3.1: an extreme scaling experiment, links to sourcecode of model and grides

The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is a novel set of Earth system simulation components and consists of an atmospheric model, an ocean model and a land-ice model. Its distinct features are the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes and C-grid discretisation to address shortcomings of global models on regular grids and the use of limited area models nested in a forcing data set, with respect to parallel scalability, numerical accuracy and physical consistency. This concept allows one to include the feedback of regional land use information on weather and climate at local and global scales in a consistent way, which is impossible to achieve with traditional limited area modelling approaches. Here, we present an in-depth evaluation of MPAS with regards to technical aspects of performing model runs and scalability for three medium-size meshes on four different high-performance computing (HPC) sites with different architectures and compilers. We uncover model limitations and identify new aspects for the model optimisation that are introduced by the use of unstructured Voronoi meshes. We further demonstrate the model performance of MPAS in terms of its capability to reproduce the dynamics of the West African monsoon (WAM) and its associated precipitation in a pilot study. Constrained by available computational resources, we compare 11-month runs for two meshes with observations and a reference simulation from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We show that MPAS can reproduce the atmospheric dynamics on global and local scales in this experiment, but identify a precipitation excess for the West African region. Finally, we conduct extreme scaling tests on a global 3?km mesh with more than 65 million horizontal grid cells on up to half a million cores. We discuss necessary modifications of the model code to improve its parallel performance in general and specific to the HPC environment. We confirm good scaling (70?% parallel efficiency or better) of the MPAS model and provide numbers on the computational requirements for experiments with the 3?km mesh. In doing so, we show that global, convection-resolving atmospheric simulations with MPAS are within reach of current and next generations of high-end computing facilities.