9 resultados para Panel data probit model

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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The evolution of the northwest African hydrological balance throughout the Pleistocene epoch influenced the migration of prehistoric humans**1. The hydrological balance is also thought to be important to global teleconnection mechanisms during Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events**2. However, most high-resolution African climate records do not span the millennial-scale climate changes of the last glacial-interglacial cycle**1, 3, 4, 5, or lack an accurate chronology**6. Here, we use grain-size analyses of siliciclastic marine sediments from off the coast of Mauritania to reconstruct changes in northwest African humidity over the past 120,000 years. We compare this reconstruction to simulations of palaeo-humidity from a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation model. These records are in good agreement, and indicate the reoccurrence of precession-forced humid periods during the last interglacial period similar to the Holocene African Humid Period. We suggest that millennial-scale arid events are associated with a reduction of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and that millennial-scale humid events are linked to a regional increase of winter rainfall over the coastal regions of northwest Africa.

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Monitoring the impact of sea storms on coastal areas is fundamental to study beach evolution and the vulnerability of low-lying coasts to erosion and flooding. Modelling wave runup on a beach is possible, but it requires accurate topographic data and model tuning, that can be done comparing observed and modeled runup. In this study we collected aerial photos using an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle after two different swells on the same study area. We merged the point cloud obtained with photogrammetry with multibeam data, in order to obtain a complete beach topography. Then, on each set of rectified and georeferenced UAV orthophotos, we identified the maximum wave runup for both events recognizing the wet area left by the waves. We then used our topography and numerical models to simulate the wave runup and compare the model results to observed values during the two events. Our results highlight the potential of the methodology presented, which integrates UAV platforms, photogrammetry and Geographic Information Systems to provide faster and cheaper information on beach topography and geomorphology compared with traditional techniques without losing in accuracy. We use the results obtained from this technique as a topographic base for a model that calculates runup for the two swells. The observed and modeled runups are consistent, and open new directions for future research.

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Five frequently-used models were chosen and evaluated to calculate the viscosity of the mixed oil. Totally twenty mixed oil samples were prepared with different ratios of light to crude oil from different oil wells but the same oil field. The viscosities of the mixtures under the same shear rates of 10 s**-1 were measured using a rotation viscometer at the temperatures ranging from 30°C to 120°C. After comparing all of the experimental data with the corresponding model values, the best one of the five models for this oil field was determined. Using the experimental data, one model with a better accuracy than the existing models was developed to calculate the viscosity of mixed oils. Another model was derived to predict the viscosity of mixed oils at different temperatures and different values of mixing ratio of light to heavy oil.

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Constraining the history of seawater (234U/238U) is important because this ratio is used to assess the validity of U/Th ages, and because it provides information about the past rate of physical weathering on the continents. This study makes use of U-rich slope sediments from the Bahamas in an attempt to reconstruct seawater (234U/238U) for the last 800 kyr. For the last 360 kyr, U/Th dating of these sediments provides ages and initial (234U/238U) values. Sixty-seven samples, largely from marine highstands, have initial (234U/238U) which scatter somewhat about the modern seawater value (~1.145) but neither this scatter nor the average value increases with age of sample. These data contrast with published coral data and suggest that seawater (234U/238U) has remained within 15? of the modern value for the last 360 kyr. This confirms the rejection of coral U/Th ages where the initial (234U/238U) is significantly different from modern seawater. Data from older highstands, dated with delta18O stratigraphy or by the presence of the Brunhes/Matuyama (B/M) reversal at 780 kyr, allow seawater (234U/238U) to be assessed prior to the range of the 230Th chronometer. Unfortunately, diagenetic scatter in the data between the B/M reversal and 360 kyr is rather large, probably relating to low U concentrations for these samples. But there is no indication of a trend in seawater (234U/238U) with age. High U samples from close to the B/M reversal show less diagenetic scatter and an initial (234U/238U) that averages 1.102. This lower value can be explained by lower seawater (234U/238U) at the time of the B/M reversal, or by progressive loss of 234U from the sediment by alpha-recoil. A simple box model is presented to illustrate the response of seawater (234U/238U) to variations in riverine input, such as might be caused by changes in continental weathering. Comparison of the Bahamas (234U/238U) data with model results indicates that riverine (234U/238U) has not varied by more than 65? for any 100 kyr period during the last 360 kyr. It also indicates that the ratio of physical to chemical weathering on the continents has not been higher than at present for any extended period during the last 800 kyr.

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Deep-sea pore fluids are potential archives of ancient seawater chemistry. However, the primary signal recorded in pore fluids is often overprinted by diagenetic processes. Recent studies have suggested that depth profiles of Mg concentration in deep-sea carbonate pore fluids are best explained by a rapid rise in seawater Mg over the last 10-20 Myr. To explore this possibility we measured the Mg isotopic composition of pore fluids and carbonate sediments from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) site 807. Whereas the concentration of Mg in the pore fluid declines with depth, the isotopic composition of Mg in the pore fluid increases from -0.78 per mil near the sediment-water interface to -0.15 per mil at 778 mbsf. The Mg isotopic composition of the sediment, with few important exceptions, does not change with depth and has an average d26Mg value of -4.72 per mil. We reproduce the observed changes in sediment and pore-fluid Mg isotope values using a numerical model that incorporates Mg, Ca and Sr cycling and satisfies existing pore-fluid Ca isotope and Sr data. Our model shows that the observed trends in magnesium concentrations and isotopes are best explained as a combination of two processes: a secular rise in the seawater Mg over the Neogene and the recrystallization of low-Mg biogenic carbonate to a higher-Mg diagenetic calcite. These results indicate that burial recrystallization will add Mg to pelagic carbonate sediments, leading to an overestimation of paleo-temperatures from measured Mg/Ca ratios. The Mg isotopic composition of foraminiferal calcite appears to be only slightly altered by recrystallization making it possible to reconstruct the Mg isotopic composition of seawater through time.

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We report high-resolution planktonic foraminifer census counts and stable oxygen and carbon isotope measurements of the planktonic foraminifera G. bulloides and N. pachyderma s. from sediment core MD07-3076Q for the last deglaciation, the last glacial maximum and Marine Isotope Stage 3. These data provide insights into the marine cycling of carbon and frontal dynamics in the sub-Antarctic Atlantic during the last 68 ka.

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Particles sinking out of the euphotic zone are important vehicles of carbon export from the surface ocean. Most of the particles produce heavier aggregates by coagulating with each other before they sink. We implemented an aggregation model into the biogeochemical model of Regional Oceanic Modelling System (ROMS) to simulate the distribution of particles in the water column and their downward transport in the Northwest African upwelling region. Accompanying settling chamber, sediment trap and particle camera measurements provide data for model validation. In situ aggregate settling velocities measured by the settling chamber were around 55 m d**-1. Aggregate sizes recorded by the particle camera hardly exceeded 1 mm. The model is based on a continuous size spectrum of aggregates, characterised by the prognostic aggregate mass and aggregate number concentration. Phytoplankton and detritus make up the aggregation pool, which has an averaged, prognostic and size dependent sinking. Model experiments were performed with dense and porous approximations of aggregates with varying maximum aggregate size and stickiness as well as with the inclusion of a disaggregation term. Similar surface productivity in all experiments has been generated in order to find the best combination of parameters that produce measured deep water fluxes. Although the experiments failed to represent surface particle number spectra, in the deep water some of them gave very similar slope and spectrum range as the particle camera observations. Particle fluxes at the mesotrophic sediment trap site off Cape Blanc (CB) have been successfully reproduced by the porous experiment with disaggregation term when particle remineralisation rate was 0.2 d**-1. The aggregation-disaggregation model improves the prediction capability of the original biogeochemical model significantly by giving much better estimates of fluxes for both upper and lower trap. The results also point to the need for more studies to enhance our knowledge on particle decay and its variation and to the role that stickiness play in the distribution of vertical fluxes.

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For paleoceanographic studies, it is important to understand the processes that influence the calcium (Ca) isotopic composition of foraminiferal calcite tests preserved in the sediment record. Seven species of planktonic foraminifera from coretop sediments collectively exhibited a Ca temperature dependent fractionation of 0.013 per mil per °C. This is in agreement with previously published estimates for most species of planktonic foraminifera as well as biogenic and inorganic calcite and aragonite. Four species of planktonic foraminifera collected from a sediment trap showed a considerable amount of scatter and no consistent temperature dependent fractionation. Analyzed size fractions of coretop samples show no significant relationship with d44/40Ca. However, preliminary results suggest that the symbiotic and spinose foraminifera G. sacculifer might exhibit a relationship between test size and d44/40Ca. A one-box model in which Ca isotopes are allowed to fractionate by Rayleigh distillation from a biomineralization reservoir (internal pool) was used to constrain the isotopic composition of the original biomineralization Ca reservoir, assuming around 85% of the Ca reservoir is precipitated and the fractionation factor during precipitation is 0.9985 + 0.00002(T ºC). To explain the foraminiferal Ca isotope data, this model indicates that the Ca isotopic composition of the biomineralization reservoir is offset from seawater (approximately -0.8per mil).