Model experiment on optimal size of a fish stock with environmental uncertainties

We analyze the effect of environmental uncertainties on optimal fishery management in a bio-economic fishery model. Unlike most of the literature on resource economics, but in line with ecological models, we allow the different biological processes of survival and recruitment to be affected differently by environmental uncertainties. We show that the overall effect of uncertainty on the optimal size of a fish stock is ambiguous, depending on the prudence of the value function. For the case of a risk-neutral fishery manager, the overall effect depends on the relative magnitude of two opposing effects, the 'convex-cost effect' and the 'gambling effect'. We apply the analysis to the Baltic cod and the North Sea herring fisheries, concluding that for risk neutral agents the net effect of environmental uncertainties on the optimal size of these fish stocks is negative, albeit small in absolute value. Under risk aversion, the effect on optimal stock size is positive for sufficiently high coefficients of constant relative risk aversion.

(Table 1) Depth and time of first appearance of species identified by fish remains in ODP Site 169-1034

Ocean Drilling Program Leg 169S retrieved a complete Holocene sequence from Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, Canada. Fish and diatom remains were extracted from sediments at Site 1034. Very small fish bones, teeth and scales were ubiquitous except in the lowermost glaciomarine clays; scales degraded with depth. In the identifiable fraction, Pacific herring were the most abundant with Pacific hake and cartilaginous fish yielding significant fractions. Fish remains appear just before 12 000 BP but greatest diversity does not occur until about 6500 BP. A smoothed abundance curve highlights two periods of maximal abundance at about 1500 and 6500 BP. Abundances in the last 1000 years are lower than the rest of the record. A correlation with abundances of seven phytoplankton taxa is significant; diatoms explain about a third of the variance. This study demonstrates the use of fish and diatoms from the same paleosedimentary matrix to examine millennia-scale correlations between primary and tertiary production.

Spatially explicit estimates of length and biomass of Micromesistius poutassou (Blue Whiting) and Clupea harengus (Norwegian spring spawning herring) from acoustic and trawl surveys in the North-East Atlantic (2004-2012)

Acoustic estimates of herring and blue whiting abundance were obtained during the surveys using the Simrad ER60 scientific echosounder. The allocation of NASC-values to herring, blue whiting and other acoustic targets were based on the composition of the trawl catches and the appearance of echo recordings. To estimate the abundance, the allocated NASC -values were averaged for ICES-squares (0.5° latitude by 1° longitude). For each statistical square, the unit area density of fish (rA) in number per square nautical mile (N*nm-2) was calculated using standard equations (Foote et al., 1987; Toresen et al., 1998). To estimate the total abundance of fish, the unit area abundance for each statistical square was multiplied by the number of square nautical miles in each statistical square and then summed for all the statistical squares within defined subareas and over the total area. Biomass estimation was calculated by multiplying abundance in numbers by the average weight of the fish in each statistical square then summing all squares within defined subareas and over the total area. The Norwegian BEAM soft-ware (Totland and Godø 2001) was used to make estimates of total biomass.