A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - a case study for the Gulf of Finland

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).

Source data for Plos ONE publication Redefining thermal regimes to design reserves for coral reefs in the face of climate change

Reef managers cannot fight global warming through mitigation at local scale, but they can use information on thermal patterns to plan for reserve networks that maximize the probability of persistence of their reef system. Here we assess previous methods for the design of reserves for climate change and present a new approach to prioritize areas for conservation that leverages the most desirable properties of previous approaches. The new method moves the science of reserve design for climate change a step forwards by: (1) recognizing the role of seasonal acclimation in increasing the limits of environmental tolerance of corals and ameliorating the bleaching response; (2) including information from several bleaching events, which frequency is likely to increase in the future; (3) assessing relevant variability at country scales, where most management plans are carried out. We demonstrate the method in Honduras, where a reassessment of the marine spatial plan is in progress.

Phytoplanktonic microfossil groups of sediments from the South and Equatorial Atlantic

Individual planktonic microfossil species, or assemblage groups of different species, are often used to, qualitatively and/or quantitatively, reconstruct past (sub)surface-water conditions of the world's oceans and seas. Until now, little information has been available on the surface sediment distribution patterns and paleoenvironmental reconstruction potential of coccolith, calcareous dinoflagellate cyst and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst assemblages of the South and equatorial Atlantic, especially at the species level. This paper (i) summarizes the distributions of these three phytoplanktonic microfossil groups in numerous Atlantic surface sediments from 20°N-50°S and 30°E-65°W and determines their relationship with the physicochemical and trophic conditions of the overlying (sub)surface-waters, and (ii) determines the synecology of the three phytoplankton groups by carrying out statistical analyses (i.e. detrended and canonical correspondence analyses) on all groups simultaneously. Ecological relationships are additionally strengthened by statistically comparing the distribution patterns of the phytoplankton groups with those of planktonic foraminifera (Pflaumann et al. 1996; Niebler et al. 1998), as the ecological preferences of the latter are much better known. Many of the analyzed phytoplanktonic microfossil species or groups of species in the surface sediments do show restricted distributions which primarily reflect the environmental conditions of the upper water masses above them (e.g. sea-surface temperature, productivity, stratification). The acquired 'reference' data sets are large and diverse enough to allow future development of transfer functions for the reconstruction of past surface-water conditions, and show that there is still an enormous paleoenvironmental reconstruction potential concealed in many fossil coccolith and dinoflagellate cyst assemblages.