A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - a case study for the Gulf of Finland

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).

Adverse effects of ocean acidification on early development of squid (Doryteuthis pealeii)

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) is being absorbed into the ocean, altering seawater chemistry, with potentially negative impacts on a wide range of marine organisms. The early life stages of invertebrates with internal and external aragonite structures may be particularly vulnerable to this ocean acidification. Impacts to cephalopods, which form aragonite cuttlebones and statoliths, are of concern because of the central role they play in many ocean ecosystems and because of their importance to global fisheries. Atlantic longfin squid (Doryteuthis pealeii), an ecologically and economically valuable taxon, were reared from eggs to hatchlings (paralarvae) under ambient and elevated CO2 concentrations in replicated experimental trials. Animals raised under elevated pCO2 demonstrated significant developmental changes including increased time to hatching and shorter mantle lengths, although differences were small. Aragonite statoliths, critical for balance and detecting movement, had significantly reduced surface area and were abnormally shaped with increased porosity and altered crystal structure in elevated pCO2-reared paralarvae. These developmental and physiological effects could alter squid paralarvae behavior and survival in the wild, directly and indirectly impacting marine food webs and commercial fisheries.

Effects of elevated CO2 on early life history development of the yellowtail kingfish, Seriola lalandi, a large pelagic fish

An increasing number of studies have examined the effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and ocean acidification on marine fish, yet little is known about the effects on large pelagic fish. We tested the effects of elevated CO2 on the early life history development and behaviour of yellowtail kingfish, Seriola lalandi. Eggs and larvae were reared in current day control (450 µatm) and two elevated CO2 treatments for a total of 6 d, from 12 h post-fertilization until 3 d post-hatching (dph). Elevated CO2 treatments matched projections for the open ocean by the year 2100 under RCP 8.5 (880 µatm CO2) and a higher level (1700 µatm CO2) relevant to upwelling zones where pelagic fish often spawn. There was no effect of elevated CO2 on survival to hatching or 3 dph. Oil globule diameter decreased with an increasing CO2 level, indicating potential effects of elevated CO2 on energy utilization of newly hatched larvae, but other morphometric traits did not differ among treatments. Contrary to expectations, there were no effects of elevated CO2 on larval behaviour. Activity level, startle response, and phototaxis did not differ among treatments. Our results contrast with findings for reef fish, where a wide range of sensory and behavioural effects have been reported. We hypothesize that the absence of behavioural effects in 3 dph yellowtail kingfish is due to the early developmental state of newly hatched pelagic fish. Behavioural effects of high CO2 may not occur until larvae commence branchial acid-base regulation when the gills develop; however, further studies are required to test this hypothesis. Our results suggest that the early stages of kingfish development are tolerant to rising CO2 levels in the ocean.