Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

Natural remanent magnetization (NRM) from ODP Site 1263 covering magnetochron C20r and C21n and high-resolution bulk carbon isotope (d13C) records from Sites 702 and 1263

To explore cause and consequences of past climate change, very accurate age models such as those provided by the astronomical timescale (ATS) are needed. Beyond 40 million years the accuracy of the ATS critically depends on the correctness of orbital models and radioisotopic dating techniques. Discrepancies in the age dating of sedimentary successions and the lack of suitable records spanning the middle Eocene have prevented development of a continuous astronomically calibrated geological timescale for the entire Cenozoic Era. We now solve this problem by constructing an independent astrochronological stratigraphy based on Earth's stable 405 kyr eccentricity cycle between 41 and 48 million years ago (Ma) with new data from deep-sea sedimentary sequences in the South Atlantic Ocean. This new link completes the Paleogene astronomical timescale and confirms the intercalibration of radioisotopic and astronomical dating methods back through the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 55.930 Ma) and the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary (66.022 Ma). Coupling of the Paleogene 405 kyr cyclostratigraphic frameworks across the middle Eocene further paves the way for extending the ATS into the Mesozoic.

Atlantic 231Pa/230Th and biogenic opal compilation of the Holocene and the LGM

The strength and geometry of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is tightly coupled to climate on glacial-interglacial and millennial timescales, but has proved difficult to reconstruct, particularly for the Last Glacial Maximum. Today, the return flow from the northern North Atlantic to lower latitudes associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation reaches down to approximately 4,000 m. In contrast, during the Last Glacial Maximum this return flow is thought to have occurred primarily at shallower depths. Measurements of sedimentary 231Pa/230Th have been used to reconstruct the strength of circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean, but the effects of biogenic silica on 231Pa/230Th-based estimates remain controversial. Here we use measurements of 231Pa/230Th ratios and biogenic silica in Holocene-aged Atlantic sediments and simulations with a two-dimensional scavenging model to demonstrate that the geometry and strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are the primary controls of 231Pa/230Th ratios in modern Atlantic sediments. For the glacial maximum, a simulation of Atlantic overturning with a shallow, but vigorous circulation and bulk water transport at around 2,000 m depth best matched observed glacial Atlantic 231Pa/230Th values. We estimate that the transport of intermediate water during the Last Glacial Maximum was at least as strong as deep water transport today.

Effects of ocean acidification on embryonic respiration and development of a temperate wrasse living along a natural CO2 gradient

Volcanic CO2 seeps provide opportunities to investigate the effects of ocean acidification on organisms in the wild. To understand the influence of increasing CO2 concentrations on the metabolic rate (oxygen consumption) and the development of ocellated wrasse early life stages, we ran two field experiments, collecting embryos from nesting sites with different partial pressures of CO2 [pCO2; ambient (400 µatm) and high (800-1000 µatm)] and reciprocally transplanting embryos from ambient- to high-CO2 sites for 30 h. Ocellated wrasse offspring brooded in different CO2 conditions had similar responses, but after transplanting portions of nests to the high-CO2 site, embryos from parents that spawned in ambient conditions had higher metabolic rates. Although metabolic phenotypic plasticity may show a positive response to high CO2, it often comes at a cost, in this case as a smaller size at hatching. This can have adverse effects because smaller larvae often exhibit a lower survival in the wild. However, the adverse effects of increased CO2 on metabolism and development did not occur when embryos from the high-CO2 nesting site were exposed to ambient conditions, suggesting that offspring from the high-CO2 nesting site could be resilient to a wider range of pCO2 values than those belonging to the site with present-day pCO2 levels. Our study identifies a crucial need to increase the number of studies dealing with these processes under global change trajectories and to expand these to naturally high-CO2 environments, in order to assess further the adaptive plasticity mechanism that encompasses non-genetic inheritance (epigenetics) through parental exposure and other downstream consequences, such as survival of larvae.

Table 1. pH, Temperature, conductivity and hydrochemistry of samples

Carbon dioxide deep geological storage, especially in deep saline aquifers, is one of the preferred technological options to mitigate the effects of greenhouse gases emissions. Thus, in the last decade, studies characterising the behaviour of potential CO2 deep geological storage sites along with thorough safety assessments have been considered essential in order to minimise the risks associated with these sites. The study of natural analogues represents the best source of reliable information about the expected hydrogeochemical processes involved in the CO2 storage in such deep saline aquifers. In this work, a comprehensive study of the hydrogeochemical features and processes taking place at the natural analogue of the Alicún de las Torres thermal system (Betic Cordillera) has been conducted. Thus, the main water/CO2/rock interaction processes occurring at the thermal system have been identified, quantified and modelled, and a principle conclusion is that the hydrogeochemical evolution of the thermal system is controlled by a global dedolomitization process triggered by gypsum dissolution. This geochemical process generates a different geochemical environment to that which would result from the exclusive dissolution of carbonates from the deep aquifer, which is generally considered as the direct result of CO2 injection in a deep carbonate aquifer. Therefore, discounting of the dedolomitization process in any CO2 deep geological storage may lead to erroneous conclusions. This process will also influence the porosity evolution of the CO2 storage formation, which is a very relevant parameter when evaluating a reservoir for CO2 storage. The geothermometric calculation performed in this work leads to estimate that the thermal water reservoir is located between 650 and 800 m depth, which is very close to the minimum required to inject CO2 in a deep geological storage. It is clear that the proper characterisation of the features and hydrogeochemical processes taking place at a natural system analogous to a man-made deep geological storage will provide useful conceptual, semi-quantitative and even quantitative information about the processes and consequences that may occur at the artificial storage system.