Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

Case studies of the effects of a total solar eclipse on weather with varying degrees of cloud cover using a local numerical weather prediction model

The importance of renewable energies for the European electricity market is growing rapidly. This presents transmission grids and the power market in general with new challenges which stem from the higher spatiotemporal variability of power generation. This uncertainty is due to the fact that renewable power production results from weather phenomena, thus making it difficult to plan and control. We present a sensitivity study of a total solar eclipse in central Europe in March. The weather in Germany and Europe was modeled using the German Weather Service's local area models COSMO-DE and COSMO-EU, respectively (http://www.cosmo-model.org/). The simulations were performed with and without considering a solar eclipse for the following 3 situations: 1. An idealized, clear-sky situation for the entire model area (Europe, COSMO-EU) 2. A real weather situation with mostly cloudy skies (Germany, COSMO-DE) 3. A real weather situation with mostly clear skies (Germany, COSMO-DE) The data should help to evaluate the effects of a total solar eclipse on the weather in the planetary boundary layer. The results show that a total solar eclipse has significant effects particularly on the main variables for renewable energy production, such as solar irradiation and temperature near the ground.

(Table 1) Reproductive performance of brown skua pairs with and without feeding territories at Potter Peninsula/King George Island from 1998/1999 to 2000/2001

In the maritime Antarctic, brown skuas (Catharacta antarctica lonnbergi) show two foraging strategies: some pairs occupy feeding territories in penguin colonies, while others can only feed in unoccupied areas of a penguin colony without defending a feeding territory. One-third of the studied breeding skua population in the South Shetlands occupied territories of varying size (48 to >3,000 penguin nests) and monopolised 93% of all penguin nests in sub-colonies. Skuas without feeding territories foraged in only 7% of penguin sub-colonies and in part of the main colony. Females owning feeding territories were larger in body size than females without feeding territories; no differences in size were found in males. Territory holders permanently controlled their resources but defence power diminished towards the end of the reproductive season. Territory ownership guaranteed sufficient food supply and led to a 5.5 days earlier egg-laying and chick-hatching. Short distances between nest and foraging site allowed territorial pairs a higher nest-attendance rate such that their chicks survived better (71%) than chicks from skua pairs without feeding territories (45%). Due to lower hatching success in territorial pairs, no difference in breeding success of pairs with and without feeding territories was found in 3 years. We conclude that skuas owning feeding territories in penguin colonies benefit from the predictable and stable food resource by an earlier termination of the annual breeding cycle and higher offspring survivorship.