EPANET Input Files of New York tunnels and Pacific City used in a metamodel-based optimization study

Metamodels have proven be very useful when it comes to reducing the computational requirements of Evolutionary Algorithm-based optimization by acting as quick-solving surrogates for slow-solving fitness functions. The relationship between metamodel scope and objective function varies between applications, that is, in some cases the metamodel acts as a surrogate for the whole fitness function, whereas in other cases it replaces only a component of the fitness function. This paper presents a formalized qualitative process to evaluate a fitness function to determine the most suitable metamodel scope so as to increase the likelihood of calibrating a high-fidelity metamodel and hence obtain good optimization results in a reasonable amount of time. The process is applied to the risk-based optimization of water distribution systems; a very computationally-intensive problem for real-world systems. The process is validated with a simple case study (modified New York Tunnels) and the power of metamodelling is demonstrated on a real-world case study (Pacific City) with a computational speed-up of several orders of magnitude.

Carbon contents of lower Cretaceous sediments from ODP Hole 198-1213B (Table 1)

ODP Leg 198 drilling on Shatsky Rise recovered a lower Aptian porcellanite (~120.5 Ma) deposited during oceanic anoxic event (OAE) 1a that contains C36-C39 alkadienones: C37:2 and C39:2 alkadien-2-ones and C36:2 and C38:2 alkadien-3-ones. This alkenone distribution differs from that typical of contemporary sediments and haptophyte algae, but resembles that of Cretaceous sediments from the Blake-Bahama basin. The discovery of alkenones in the early Aptian extends their sedimentary record by 15 M.y. to 120.5 M.y. and demonstrates the potential for long-term survival of these diagnostic functional lipids under favorable depositional conditions and subsequent shallow burial. It also contributes to the understanding and reconstruction of evolutionary developments in alkenone distributions and biosynthesis over geologic time.

(Table 1) Nesting characteristics of greater snow geese (Chen caerulescens atlanticus) on Bylot Island between 1995-2005

1. Habitat heterogeneity and predator behaviour can strongly affect predator-prey interactions but these factors are rarely considered simultaneously, especially when systems encompass multiple predators and prey. 2. In the Arctic, greater snow geese Anser caerulescens atlanticus L. nest in two structurally different habitats: wetlands that form intricate networks of water channels, and mesic tundra where such obstacles are absent. In this heterogeneous environment, goose eggs are exposed to two types of predators: the arctic fox Vulpes lagopus L. and a diversity of avian predators. We hypothesized that, contrary to birds, the hunting ability of foxes would be impaired by the structurally complex wetland habitat, resulting in a lower predation risk for goose eggs. 3. In addition, lemmings, the main prey of foxes, show strong population cycles. We thus further examined how their fluctuations influenced the interaction between habitat heterogeneity and fox predation on goose eggs. 4. An experimental approach with artificial nests suggested that foxes were faster than avian predators to find unattended goose nests in mesic tundra whereas the reverse was true in wetlands. Foxes spent 3-5 times more time between consecutive attacks on real goose nests in wetlands than in mesic tundra. Their attacks on goose nests were also half as successful in wetlands than in mesic tundra whereas no difference was found for avian predators. 5. Nesting success in wetlands (65%) was higher than in mesic tundra (56%) but the difference between habitats increased during lemming crashes (15%) compared to other phases of the cycle (5%). Nests located at the edge of wetland patches were also less successful than central ones, suggesting a gradient in accessibility of goose nests in wetlands for foxes. 6. Our study shows that the structural complexity of wetlands decreases predation risk from foxes but not avian predators in arctic-nesting birds. Our results also demonstrate that cyclic lemming populations indirectly alter the spatial distribution of productive nests due to a complex interaction between habitat structure, prey-switching and foraging success of foxes.

Experiment: Adaptation of a globally important coccolithophore to ocean warming and acidification

Although oceanwarming and acidification are recognized as two major anthropogenic perturbations of today's oceanswe know very little about how marine phytoplankton may respond via evolutionary change.We tested for adaptation to ocean warming in combination with ocean acidification in the globally important phytoplankton species Emiliania huxleyi. Temperature adaptation occurred independently of ocean acidifcation levels. Exponential growth rates were were up to 16% higher in populations adapted for one year to warming when assayed at their upper thermal tolerance limit. Particulate inorganic (PIC) and organic (POC) carbon production was restored to values under present-day ocean conditions, owing to adaptive evolution, and were 101% and 55% higher under combined warming and acidification, respectively, than in non-adapted controls. Cells also evolved to a smaller size while they recovered their initial PIC:POC ratio even under elevated CO2. The observed changes in coccolithophore growth, calcite and biomass production, cell size and elemental composition demonstrate the importance of evolutionary processes for phytoplankton performance in a future ocean. At the end of a 1-yr temperature selection phase, we conducted a reciprocal assay experiment in which temperature-adapted asexual populations were compared to the respective non-adapted control populations under high temperature, and vice versa (1. Assay Data, Dataset #835336). Mean exponential growth rates ? in treatments subjected to high temperature increased rapidly under all high temperature-CO2 treatment combinations during the temperature selection phase (2. time series, Dataset #835339).

(Table 1) Number of invertebrate species per bottom trawl haul in the Kapp Norvegia to Halley Bay area on cruise EASIZ I (ANT-XIII/3) and in the Kapp Norvegia - Austasen area on cruise EASIZ III (ANT-XVII/3)

Ecological work carried out on the Antarctic and Magellan shelves since the first IBMANT conference held at the UMAG, Punta Arenas in 1997 is summarized to identify areas where progress has been made and others, where impor- tant gaps have remained in understanding past and present interaction between the Antarctic and the southern tip of South America. This information is complementary to a review on shallow-water work along the Scotia Arc (Barnes, 2005) and recent work done in the deep sea (Brandt and Hilbig, 2004). While principally referring to shipboard work in deeper water, above all during the recent international EASIZ and LAMPOS campaigns, relevant work from shore stations is also included. Six years after the first IBMANT symposium, significant progress has been made along the latitudinal gradient from the Magellan region to the high Antarctic in the fields of biodiversity, biogeography and community structure, life strategies and adaptations, the role of disturbance and its significance for biodiversity, and trophic coupling of the benthic realm with the water column and sea ice. A better understanding has developed of the role of evolutionary and ecological factors in shaping past and present-day environmental conditions, species composition and distribution, and ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, the science community engaged in unravelling Antarctic-Magellan interactions has advanced in methodological aspects such as new analytical approaches for comparing biodiversity derived from visual methods, growth and age determination, trophic modelling using stable isotope ratios, and molecular approaches for taxonomic and phylogenetic purposes. At the same time, much effort has been invested to complement the species inventory of the two adjacent regions. However, much work remains to be done to fill the numerous gaps. Some perspectives are outlined in this review, and sug- gestions are made where particular emphasis should be placed in future work, much of which will be developed in the frame of SCAR's EBA (Evolution and Biodiversity in the Antarctic) programme.

Stable oxygen isotope ratios of benthic and planktonic foraminifera from early Miocene sediments of DSDP Site 90-593 on the Challenger Plateau, Pacific Ocean (Table 1)

Oxygen isotope data are compared with relative abundances of selected planktic foraminifera through a ca. 15 m interval at DSDP Site 593 (Tasman Sea, southwest Pacific, 40°S) in which there are prominent changes in population sizes, as well as several evolutionary events. We focus on the relation between faunal and climatic histories. The base of early Miocene oxygen isotope Zone Mi1b (uppermost planktic foraminiferal Zone N.6) is identified from closesampled (c. 14 kyr) isotope records of Globigerina woodi and Cibicides kullenbergi. Chronostratigraphic interpolations, using the first occurrences of Globorotalia praescitula, G. mimea and Praeorbulina curva give an age estimate of ca. 18.4 Ma (cf. 18.1 -18.3 Ma for the base of the zone at DSDP Site 608 (type level, north Atlantic, 43°N) ). Another significant benthic delta18O enrichment event, informally designated as the base of zone "Mi1c", is identified 10 m higher in the sequence at ca. 17.8 Ma. Populations of Globoquadriau dehiscens and Globigerinoides trilobus (inferred to be near the southern margin of their distributions) either reduced considerably or withdrew, particularly in the vicinity of zone "Mi1c". A bioseries linking Globorotalia incognita with G. zealandica developed following the benthic delta18O enrichment spike at the base of Zone Mi1b; the latter species became extinct (at least regionally) just above the base of zone "Mi1c". In contrast, the apparently opportunistic Globorotlia praescitula increased dramatically in abundance at this time; there were also transformations in its architecture, leading to the evolutionary appearance of G. miozea. While planktic foraminifera abundances often do not closely covary with the detailed isotope records and tend to be more stable through time, the near coincidence of evolutionary and biogeographic events with isotopic events suggests at least indirect adaptive responses to climatic changes. Early Miocene middle-latitude planktic foraminiferal evolution, biogeography, and biostratigraphy, may be intimately connected with climatic history.

Impact of ocean acidification and warming on the larval development of the spider crab Hyas araneus from different latitudes (54° vs 79°N), 2010

The combined impacts of future scenarios of ocean acidification and global warming on the larvae of a cold-eurythermal spider crab, Hyas araneus L., were investigated in one of its southernmost populations (living around Helgoland, southern North Sea, 54°N) and one of the northernmost populations (Svalbard, North Atlantic, 79°N). Larvae were exposed at temperatures of 3, 9 and 15°C to present day normocapnia (380 ppm CO2) and to CO2 conditions expected for the near or medium-term future (710 ppm by 2100 and 3000 ppm CO2 by 2300 and beyond). Larval development time and biochemical composition were studied in the larval stages Zoea I, II, and Megalopa. Permanent differences in instar duration between both populations were detected in all stages, likely as a result of evolutionary temperature adaptation. With the exception of Zoea II at 3°C and under all CO2 conditions, development in all instars from Svalbard was delayed compared to those from Helgoland, under all conditions. Most prominently, development was much longer and fewer specimens morphosed to the first crab instar in the Megalopa from Svalbard than from Helgoland. Enhanced CO2 levels (710 and particularly 3000 ppm), caused extended duration of larval development and reduced larval growth (measured as dry mass) and fitness (decreasing C/N ratio, a proxy of the lipid content). Such effects were strongest in the zoeal stages in Svalbard larvae, and during the Megalopa instar in Helgoland larvae.