2 resultados para Needs model
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
The role of Pre- and Protohistoric anthropogenic land cover changes needs to be quantified i) to establish a baseline for comparison with current human impact on the environment and ii) to separate it from naturally occurring changes in our environment. Results are presented from the simple, adaptation-driven, spatially explicit Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator (GLUES) for pre-Bronze age demographic, technological and economic change. Using scaling parameters from the History Database of the Global Environment as well as GLUES-simulated population density and subsistence style, the land requirement for growing crops is estimated. The intrusion of cropland into potentially forested areas is translated into carbon loss due to deforestation with the dynamic global vegetation model VECODE. The land demand in important Prehistoric growth areas - converted from mostly forested areas - led to large-scale regional (country size) deforestation of up to 11% of the potential forest. In total, 29 Gt carbon were lost from global forests between 10 000 BC and 2000 BC and were replaced by crops; this value is consistent with other estimates of Prehistoric deforestation. The generation of realistic (agri-)cultural development trajectories at a regional resolution is a major strength of GLUES. Most of the pre-Bronze age deforestation is simulated in a broad farming belt from Central Europe via India to China. Regional carbon loss is, e.g., 5 Gt in Europe and the Mediterranean, 6 Gt on the Indian subcontinent, 18 Gt in East and Southeast Asia, or 2.3 Gt in subsaharan Africa.
Resumo:
The present study is the first study on the stable oxygen isotope composition of the photosynthetic calcareous-walled dinoflagellate species Thoracosphaera heimii off NW Africa during the last 45,000 yr. T. heimii based temperature estimates of sediment core GeoB 8507-3 were compared with those obtained from the stable oxygen isotopes of the planktic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides and Globigerinoides ruber (pink), and the Mg/Ca ratio of G. ruber (pink). We show that the isotopic composition of T. heimii and the temperature estimates based on the equation for inorganically precipitated calcite provide comparable results to those obtained from G. ruber (pink) isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios with exception of the Early Holocene and the Younger Dryas. The recently proposed palaeotemperature equation of Zonneveld et al. (2007), however, provides unrealistic temperature reconstructions that are about 16 °C lower than those based on planktic foraminifera. Thus, this equation needs to be revised. The difference between T. heimii and G. bulloides isotopic and temperature reconstructions can be ascribed to differences in the ecology of both species, especially with regard to their depth habitat and/or seasonal production in the research area. All temperature proxies suggest comparable conditions during the last glacial and Holocene. Small differences between the reconstructed temperature values of T. heimii and the other proxies can be explained by differences in seasonal production of the individual species. The relatively low temperatures recorded by T. heimii at about 15,000 to 8,000 yr BP are interpreted to reflect an increase in duration and/or intensity of the upwelling in the vicinity of the core site in comparison to the last glacial, with an abrupt and strong decrease of upwelling intensity and/or duration during the Early Holocene and the Younger Dryas.