Ocean temperature response to idealized Gleissberg and de Vries solar cycles in a comprehensive climate model

The ~90-year Gleissberg and ~200-year de Vries cycles have been identified as two distinctive quasi-periodic components of Holocene solar activity. Evidence exists for the impact of such multi-decadal to centennial-scale variability in total solar irradiance (TSI) on climate, but concerning the ocean, this evidence is mainly restricted to the surface response. Here we use a comprehensive global climate model to study the impact of idealized solar forcing, representing the Gleissberg and de Vries cycles, on global ocean potential temperature at different depth levels, after a recent proxy record indicates a signal of TSI anomalies in the northeastern Atlantic at mid-depth. Potential impacts of TSI anomalies on deeper oceanic levels are climatically relevant due to their possible effect on ocean circulation by altering water mass characteristics. Simulated solar anomalies are shown to penetrate the ocean down to at least deep-water levels. Despite the fact that the two forcing periods differ only by a factor of ~2, the spatial pattern of response is significantly distinctive between the experiments, suggesting different mechanisms for solar signal propagation. These are related to advection by North Atlantic Deep Water flow (200-year forcing), and barotropic adjustment in the South Atlantic in response to a latitudinal shift of the westerly wind belt (90-year forcing).

Lagrangian back-tracing results for Kohnen station; output of time dependent numerical experiment with a 3D nested Antarctic ice sheet model

A nested ice flow model was developed for eastern Dronning Maud Land to assist with the dating and interpretation of the EDML deep ice core. The model consists of a high-resolution higher-order ice dynamic flow model that was nested into a comprehensive 3-D thermomechanical model of the whole Antarctic ice sheet. As the drill site is on a flank position the calculations specifically take into account the effects of horizontal advection as deeper ice in the core originated from higher inland. First the regional velocity field and ice sheet geometry is obtained from a forward experiment over the last 8 glacial cycles. The result is subsequently employed in a Lagrangian backtracing algorithm to provide particle paths back to their time and place of deposition. The procedure directly yields the depth-age distribution, surface conditions at particle origin, and a suite of relevant parameters such as initial annual layer thickness. This paper discusses the method and the main results of the experiment, including the ice core chronology, the non-climatic corrections needed to extract the climatic part of the signal, and the thinning function. The focus is on the upper 89% of the ice core (appr. 170 kyears) as the dating below that is increasingly less robust owing to the unknown value of the geothermal heat flux. It is found that the temperature biases resulting from variations of surface elevation are up to half of the magnitude of the climatic changes themselves.

Regional geoid model for the area of the subglacial Lake Vostok

We present a regional geoid model for the area of Lake Vostok, Antarctica, from a combination of local airborne gravity, ice-surface and ice-thickness data and a lake bathymetry model. The topography data are used for residual terrain modelling (RTM) in a remove-compute-restore approach together with the GOCE satellite model GOCO03S. The disturbing potential at the Earth's surface, i.e. the quasigeoid, is predicted by least-squares collocation (LSC) and subsequently converted to geoid heights. Compared to GOCO03S our regional solution provides an additional short-wavelength signal of up to 1.48 m, or 0.56 m standard deviation, respectively. More details can be found in Schwabe et. al (2014).

Phosphorylation levels of JAK2 after addition of increasing Epo-concentrations: model approach (Figure 5a)

The present dataset contain source data for Figure 5a from Schilling et al., 2009. Cell fate decisions are regulated by the coordinated activation of signalling pathways such as the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) cascade, but contributions of individual kinase isoforms are mostly unknown. The authors combined quantitative data from erythropoietin-induced pathway activation in primary erythroid progenitor (colony-forming unit erythroid stage, CFU-E) cells with mathematical modelling, in order to predict and experimentally confirmed a distributive ERK phosphorylation mechanism in CFU-E cells. The authors found evidences that double-phosphorylated ERK1 attenuates proliferation beyond a certain activation level, whereas activated ERK2 enhances proliferation with saturation kinetics. Phosphorylation levels of JAK2 at 7 min after stimulation for Epo concentrations ranging from 0.1 to 1000 U/ml were simulated.

Age model, raw data and interpolated raw data from proxy records of sediment cores GeoB6007-1 and GeoB6007-2

Here we present a 1200 yr long benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca based temperature and oxygen isotope record from a ~900 m deep sediment core off northwest Africa to show that atmosphere-ocean interactions in the eastern subpolar gyre are transferred at central water depth into the eastern boundary of the subtropical gyre. Further we link the variability of the NAO (over the past 165 yrs) and solar irradiance (Late Holocene) and their control on subpolar mode water formation to the multidecadal variability observed at mid-depth in the eastern subtropical gyre. Our results show that eastern North Atlantic central waters cooled by up to ~0.8± 0.7 °C and densities decreased by Sigma theta=0.3±0.2 during positive NAO years and during minima in solar irradiance during the Late Holocene. The presented records demonstrate the sensitivity of central water formation to enhanced atmospheric forcing and ice/freshwater fluxes into the eastern subpolar gyre and the importance of central water circulation for cross-gyre climate signal propagation during the Late Holocene.

Age model, lipids, and iron/calcium-ratios of sediment core GeoB9307-3

Hide Intense debate persists about the climatic mechanisms governing hydrologic changes in tropical and subtropical southeast Africa since the Last Glacial Maximum, about 20,000 years ago. In particular, the relative importance of atmospheric and oceanic processes is not firmly established. Southward shifts of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) driven by high-latitude climate changes have been suggested as a primary forcing, whereas other studies infer a predominant influence of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures on regional rainfall changes. To address this question, a continuous record representing an integrated signal of regional climate variability is required, but has until now been missing. Here we show that remote atmospheric forcing by cold events in the northern high latitudes appears to have been the main driver of hydro-climatology in southeast Africa during rapid climate changes over the past 17,000 years. Our results are based on a reconstruction of precipitation and river discharge changes, as recorded in a marine sediment core off the mouth of the Zambezi River, near the southern boundary of the modern seasonal ITCZ migration. Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures did not exert a primary control over southeast African hydrologic variability. Instead, phases of high precipitation and terrestrial discharge occurred when the ITCZ was forced southwards during Northern Hemisphere cold events, such as Heinrich stadial 1 (around 16,000 years ago) and the Younger Dryas (around 12,000 years ago), or when local summer insolation was high in the late Holocene, i.e., during the last 4,000 years.

Age model and stable oxygen isotope analyses of sediment core GeoB8507-3

The present study is the first study on the stable oxygen isotope composition of the photosynthetic calcareous-walled dinoflagellate species Thoracosphaera heimii off NW Africa during the last 45,000 yr. T. heimii based temperature estimates of sediment core GeoB 8507-3 were compared with those obtained from the stable oxygen isotopes of the planktic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides and Globigerinoides ruber (pink), and the Mg/Ca ratio of G. ruber (pink). We show that the isotopic composition of T. heimii and the temperature estimates based on the equation for inorganically precipitated calcite provide comparable results to those obtained from G. ruber (pink) isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios with exception of the Early Holocene and the Younger Dryas. The recently proposed palaeotemperature equation of Zonneveld et al. (2007), however, provides unrealistic temperature reconstructions that are about 16 °C lower than those based on planktic foraminifera. Thus, this equation needs to be revised. The difference between T. heimii and G. bulloides isotopic and temperature reconstructions can be ascribed to differences in the ecology of both species, especially with regard to their depth habitat and/or seasonal production in the research area. All temperature proxies suggest comparable conditions during the last glacial and Holocene. Small differences between the reconstructed temperature values of T. heimii and the other proxies can be explained by differences in seasonal production of the individual species. The relatively low temperatures recorded by T. heimii at about 15,000 to 8,000 yr BP are interpreted to reflect an increase in duration and/or intensity of the upwelling in the vicinity of the core site in comparison to the last glacial, with an abrupt and strong decrease of upwelling intensity and/or duration during the Early Holocene and the Younger Dryas.

(Table 1) Age model of sediment core MD03-2705

A reconstruction of northwest African summer monsoon strength during the cold marine isotopic stage (MIS) 6 indicates a link to the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). High-resolution studies of eolian dust supply and sea surface temperature recorded in marine core MD03-2705, on the Mauritanian margin, provide a better understanding about the penultimate glacial history of northwestern African aridity/humidity and upwelling coastal activity. Today, site MD03-2705 experiences increased upwelling and dust flux during the winter months, when the ITCZ is in a southerly position. Analyses of foraminifera isotopic composition suggest that during MIS 6.5 (180-168 ka) the average position of the ITCZ migrated north, marked by an increase in the strength of the summer monsoon, which decreased eolian dust transport and the coastal upwelling activity. The northward migration is in phase with a specific orbital combination of a low precessional index with a high obliquity signal. High-resolution analysis of stable isotopes (d18O and d13C) and microscale resolution geochemical (Ti/Al and quartz grain counts) determinations reveal that the transition between monsoonal humid (MIS 6.5) and dry (MIS 6.4) conditions has occurred in less than 1.3 ka. Such rapid changes suggest a nonlinear link between the African monsoonal rainfall system and environmental changes over the continent. This study provides new insights about the influence of vegetation and oceanic temperature feedbacks on the onset of African summer monsoon and demonstrates that, during the penultimate glacial period, changes in tropical dynamics had regional and global impacts.

Age model, radiocarbon dates and dinoflagellate cyst measurements from sediment core DA06-139G

A marine sediment core from Vaigat in Disko Bugt, West Greenland, has been analysed in terms of lithology, dinoflagellate cysts and foraminifera in order to evaluate the influence of oceanographic variability on West Greenland glacier stability. The data show that during the past 5200 years the Atlantic foraminiferal abundance in the subsurface waters of the West Greenland Current (WGC) episodically increased, indicating periods of increases in the inflow of subsurface warm Atlantic water at 2000 - 1500 cal. yr BP and 1300 cal. yr BP as well as periods of less pronounced increased bottom-water temperatures around 4700 - 4000 cal. yr BP, 3100 - 2800, 2600, 1000 - 800, 500 - 400, and at 200 cal. yr. The sedimentological and dinoflagellate cyst data indicate that these episodes with enhanced advection of Irminger Sea-derived waters are accompanied by increased iceberg rafting, which we link to increased iceberg calving in relation to destabilization of the Jakobshavn Isbrae. The long-term trend in the data documents the end of a late-Holocene Thermal Maximum between 5200 and 4300 cal. yr BP and a final onset of the Neoglaciation at 3500 cal. yr BP. Increased responses of the iceberg rafting after 3500 cal. yr BP, reflects a westward/seaward advance of the glacier margin in relation to onset of Neoglaciation and a development of the glacier into a floating tongue after 2000 cal. yr BP. A comparison of our record with a record from the eastern North Atlantic indicates that a NAO-like anomaly pattern between subsurface waters in West Greenland and atmospheric temperature in the Eastern North Atlantic may have been operating during most of the late Holocene. However, during the past 1000 years the NAO signal may have weakened as some other mode of climate variability overprints the anti-phase climate signal in this region.

Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.