4 resultados para Multi-sector New Keynesian DSGE models

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Substantial retreat or disintegration of numerous ice shelves have been observed on the Antarctic Peninsula. The ice shelf in the Prince Gustav Channel retreated gradually since the late 1980's and broke-up in 1995. Tributary glaciers reacted with speed-up, surface lowering and increased ice discharge, consequently contributing to sea level rise. We present a detailed long-term study (1993-2014) on the dynamic response of Sjögren Inlet glaciers to the disintegration of Prince Gustav Ice Shelf. We analyzed various remote sensing datasets to observe the reactions of the glaciers to the loss of the buttressing ice shelf. A strong increase in ice surface velocities was observed with maximum flow speeds reaching 2.82±0.48 m/d in 2007 and 1.50±0.32 m/d in 2004 at Sjögren and Boydell glaciers respectively. Subsequently, the flow velocities decelerated, however in late 2014, we still measured about two times the values of our first measurements in 1996. The tributary glaciers retreated 61.7±3.1 km² behind the former grounding line of the ice shelf. In regions below 1000 m a.s.l., a mean surface lowering of -68±10 m (-3.1 m/a) was observed in the period 1993-2014. The lowering rate decreased to -2.2 m/a in recent years. Based on the surface lowering rates, geodetic mass balances of the glaciers were derived for different time steps. High mass loss rate of -1.21±0.36 Gt/a was found in the earliest period (1993-2001). Due to the dynamic adjustments of the glaciers to the new boundary conditions the ice mass loss reduced to -0.59±0.11 Gt/a in the period 2012-2014, resulting in an average mass loss rate of -0.89±0.16 Gt/a (1993-2014). Including the retreat of the ice front and grounding line, a total mass change of -38.5±7.7 Gt and a contribution to sea level rise of 0.061±0.013 mm were computed. Analysis of the ice flux revealed that available bedrock elevation estimates at Sjögren Inlet are too shallow and are the major uncertainty in ice flux computations. This temporally dense time series analysis of Sjögren Inlet glaciers shows that the adjustments of tributary glaciers to ice shelf disintegration are still going on and provides detailed information of the changes in glacier dynamics.

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The Bounty Trough, east of New Zealand, lies along the southeastern edge of the present-day Subtropical Front (STF), and is a major conduit via the Bounty Channel, for terrigenous sediment supply from the uplifted Southern Alps to the abyssal Bounty Fan. Census data on 65 benthic foraminiferal faunas (>63 µm) from upper bathyal (ODP 1119), lower bathyal (DSDP 594) and abyssal (ODP 1122) sequences, test and refine existing models for the paleoceanographic and sedimentary history of the trough through the last 150 ka (marine isotope stages, MIS 6-1). Cluster analysis allows recognition of six species groups, whose distribution patterns coincide with bathymetry, the climate cycles and displaced turbidite beds. Detrended canonical correspondence analysis and comparisons with modern faunal patterns suggest that the groups are most strongly influenced by food supply (organic carbon flux), and to a lesser extent by bottom water oxygen and factors relating to sediment type. Major faunal changes at upper bathyal depths (1119) probably resulted from cycles of counter-intuitive seaward-landward migrations of the Southland Front (SF) (north-south sector of the STF). Benthic foraminiferal changes suggest that lower nutrient, cool Subantarctic Surface Water (SAW) was overhead in warm intervals, and higher nutrient-bearing, warm neritic Subtropical Surface Water (STW) was overhead in cold intervals. At lower bathyal depths (594), foraminiferal changes indicate increased glacial productivity and lowered bottom oxygen, attributed to increased upwelling and inflow of cold, nutrient-rich, Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and shallowing of the oxygen-minimum zone (upper Circum Polar Deep Water, CPDW). The observed cyclical benthic foraminiferal changes are not a result of associations migrating up and down the slope, as glacial faunas (dominated by Globocassidulina canalisuturata and Eilohedra levicula at upper and lower bathyal depths, respectively) are markedly different from those currently living in the Bounty Trough. On the abyssal Bounty Fan (1122), faunal changes correlate most strongly with grain size, and are attributed to varying amounts of mixing of displaced and in-situ faunas. Most of the displaced foraminifera in turbiditic sand beds are sourced from mid-outer shelf depths at the head of the Bounty Channel. Turbidity currents were more prevalent during, but not restricted to, glacial intervals.

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The Last Interglacial (LIG, 129-116 thousand of years BP, ka) represents a test bed for climate model feedbacks in warmer-than-present high latitude regions. However, mainly because aligning different palaeoclimatic archives and from different parts of the world is not trivial, a spatio-temporal picture of LIG temperature changes is difficult to obtain. Here, we have selected 47 polar ice core and sub-polar marine sediment records and developed a strategy to align them onto the recent AICC2012 ice core chronology. We provide the first compilation of high-latitude temperature changes across the LIG associated with a coherent temporal framework built between ice core and marine sediment records. Our new data synthesis highlights non-synchronous maximum temperature changes between the two hemispheres with the Southern Ocean and Antarctica records showing an early warming compared to North Atlantic records. We also observe warmer than present-day conditions that occur for a longer time period in southern high latitudes than in northern high latitudes. Finally, the amplitude of temperature changes at high northern latitudes is larger compared to high southern latitude temperature changes recorded at the onset and the demise of the LIG. We have also compiled four data-based time slices with temperature anomalies (compared to present-day conditions) at 115 ka, 120 ka, 125 ka and 130 ka and quantitatively estimated temperature uncertainties that include relative dating errors. This provides an improved benchmark for performing more robust model-data comparison. The surface temperature simulated by two General Circulation Models (CCSM3 and HadCM3) for 130 ka and 125 ka is compared to the corresponding time slice data synthesis. This comparison shows that the models predict warmer than present conditions earlier than documented in the North Atlantic, while neither model is able to produce the reconstructed early Southern Ocean and Antarctic warming. Our results highlight the importance of producing a sequence of time slices rather than one single time slice averaging the LIG climate conditions.