Decision evaluation in complex risk network systems (DecernsSDSS) demo and Black River case study

The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality of monitoring programs and characterizing project success. Moreover it is oftentimes very difficult to balance the importance of multiple ecological, social, and economical metrics. Metric selection process is a complex and must simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. We propose multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, for the selection of optimal sets of metrics to enhance evaluation of ecosystem restoration alternatives. Two MCDA methods, a multiattribute utility analysis (MAUT), and a probabilistic multicriteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), are applied and compared for a hypothetical case study of a river restoration involving multiple stakeholders. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, unbiased, and transparent solution, informing restoration alternatives evaluation. The two methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criteria, it is suggested as the best option if data uncertainty is high. Despite the increase in complexity in the metric selection process, MCDA improves upon the current ad-hoc decision practice based on the consultations with stakeholders and experts, and encourages transparent and quantitative aggregation of data and judgement, increasing the transparency of decision making in restoration projects. We believe that MCDA can enhance the overall sustainability of ecosystem by enhancing both ecological and societal needs.

(Figure 2) Mean discharge per day (total and baseflow part) of the San Francisco River and daily precipitation at station ECPL (Planta), in 2007

We investigated controls on the water chemistry of a South Ecuadorian cloud forest catchment which is partly pristine, and partly converted to extensive pasture. From April 2007 to May 2008 water samples were taken weekly to biweekly at nine different subcatchments, and were screened for differences in electric conductivity, pH, anion, as well as element composition. A principal component analysis was conducted to reduce dimensionality of the data set and define major factors explaining variation in the data. Three main factors were isolated by a subset of 10 elements (Ca2+, Ce, Gd, K+, Mg2+, Na+, Nd, Rb, Sr, Y), explaining around 90% of the data variation. Land-use was the major factor controlling and changing water chemistry of the subcatchments. A second factor was associated with the concentration of rare earth elements in water, presumably highlighting other anthropogenic influences such as gravel excavation or road construction. Around 12% of the variation was explained by the third component, which was defined by the occurrence of Rb and K and represents the influence of vegetation dynamics on element accumulation and wash-out. Comparison of base- and fast flow concentrations led to the assumption that a significant portion of soil water from around 30 cm depth contributes to storm flow, as revealed by increased rare earth element concentrations in fast flow samples. Our findings demonstrate the utility of multi-tracer principal component analysis to study tropical headwater streams, and emphasize the need for effective land management in cloud forest catchments.

High-resolution multi-proxy record of the last glacial period from Lake Van, eastern Anatolian high plateau, Turkey

Detailed analyses of the Lake Van pollen, Ca/K ratio and stable oxygen isotope record allow the identification of millennial-scale vegetation and environmental changes in eastern Anatolia throughout the last glacial (~75-15 ka BP). The climate within the last glacial was cold and dry, with low arboreal pollen (AP) levels. The driest and coldest period corresponds to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2 (~28-14.5 ka BP) dominated by the highest values of xerophytic steppe vegetation. Our high-resolution multi proxy record shows rapid expansions and contractions of tree populations that reflects variability in temperature and moisture availability. This rapid vegetation and environmental changes can be linked to the stadial-interstadial pattern of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events as recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Periods of reduced moisture availability were characterized by enhanced xerophytic species and high terrigenous input from the Lake Van catchment area. Furthermore, comparison with the marine realm reveals that the complex atmosphere-ocean interaction can be explained by the strength and position of the westerlies, which is responsible for the supply of humidity in eastern Anatolia. Influenced by diverse topography of the Lake Van catchment, larger DO interstadials (e.g. DO 19, 17-16, 14, 12 and 8) show the highest expansion of temperate species within the last glacial. However, Heinrich events (HE), characterized by highest concentrations of ice-rafted debris (IRD) in marine sediments, are identified in eastern Anatolia by AP values not lower and high steppe components not more abundant than during DO stadials. In addition, this work is a first attempt to establish a continuous microscopic charcoal record over the last glacial in the Near East, which documents an initial immediate response to millennial-scale climate and environmental variability and enables us to shed light on the history of fire activity during the last glacial.

High-resolution multi-proxy record of the last interglacial period from Lake Van, eastern Anatolian high plateau, Turkey

A high-resolution multi-proxy record from Lake Van, eastern Anatolia, derived from a lacustrine sequence cored at the 357 m deep Ahlat Ridge (AR), allows a comprehensive view of paleoclimate and environmental history in the continental Near East during the last interglacial (LI). We combined paleovegetation (pollen), stable oxygen isotope (d18Obulk) and XRF data from the same sedimentary sequence, showing distinct variations during the period from 135 to 110 ka ago leading into and out of full interglacial conditions. The last interglacial plateau, as defined by the presence of thermophilous steppe-forest communities, lasted ca. 13.5 ka, from ~129.1-115.6 ka BP. The detailed palynological sequence at Lake Van documents a vegetation succession with several climatic phases: (I) the Pistacia zone (ca. 131.2-129.1 ka BP) indicates summer dryness and mild winter conditions during the initial warming, (II) the Quercus-Ulmus zone (ca. 129.1-127.2 ka BP) occurred during warm and humid climate conditions with enhanced evaporation, (III) the Carpinus zone (ca. 127.2-124.1 ka BP) suggest increasingly cooler and wetter conditions, and (IV) the expansion of Pinus at ~124.1 ka BP marks the onset of a colder/drier environment that extended into the interval of global ice growth. Pollen data suggest migration of thermophilous trees from refugial areas at the beginning of the last interglacial. Analogous to the current interglacial, the migration documents a time lag between the onset of climatic amelioration and the establishment of an oak steppe-forest, spanning 2.1 ka. Hence, the major difference between the last interglacial compared to the current interglacial (Holocene) is the abundance of Pinus as well as the decrease of deciduous broad-leaved trees, indicating higher continentality during the last interglacial. Finally, our results demonstrate intra-interglacial variability in the low mid-latitudes and suggest a close connection with the high-frequency climate variability recorded in Greenland ice cores.