9 resultados para Multi layer perceptron backpropagation neural network

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Planktonic foraminiferal assemblages and artificial neural network estimates of sea-surface temperature (SST) at ODP Site 1123 (41°47.2'S, 171°29.9'W; 3290 m deep), east of New Zealand, reveal a high-resolution history of glacial-interglacial (G-I) variability at the Subtropical Front (STF) for the last 1.2 million years, including the Mid-Pleistocene climate transition (MPT). Most G-I cycles of ~100 kyr duration have short periods of cold glacial and warm deglacial climate centred on glacial terminations, followed by long temperate interglacial periods. During glacial-deglacial transitions, maximum abundances of subantarctic and subtropical taxa coincide with SST minima and maxima, and lead ice volume by up to 8 kyrs. Such relationships reflect the competing influence of subantarctic and subtropical surface inflows during glacial and deglacial periods, respectively, suggesting alternate polar and tropical forcing of southern mid-latitude ocean climate. The lead of SSTs and subtropical inflow over ice volume points to tropical forcing of southern mid-latitude ocean-climate during deglacial warming. This contrasts with the established hypothesis that southern hemisphere ocean climate is driven by the influence of continental glaciations. Based on wholesale changes in subantarctic and subtropical faunas, the last 1.2 million years are subdivided into 4-distinct periods of ocean climate. 1) The pre-MPT (1185-870 ka) has high amplitude 41-kyr fluctuations in SST, superimposed on a general cooling trend and heightened productivity, reflecting long-term strengthening of subantarctic inflow under an invigorated Antarctic Circumpolar Current. 2) The early MPT (870-620 ka) is marked by abrupt warming during MIS 21, followed by a period of unstable periodicities within the 40-100 kyr orbital bands, decreasing SST amplitudes, and long intervals of temperate interglacial climate punctuated by short glacial and deglacial phases, reflecting lower meridional temperature gradients. 3) The late MPT (620-435 ka) encompasses an abrupt decrease in the subantarctic inflow during MIS 15, followed by a period of warm equable climate. Poorly defined, low amplitude G-I variations in SSTs during this interval are consistent with a relatively stable STF and evenly balanced subantarctic and subtropical inflows, possibly in response to smaller, less dynamic polar icesheets. 4) The post-MPT (435-0 ka) is marked by a major climatic deterioration during MIS 12, and a return to higher amplitude 100 kyr-frequency SST variations, superimposed on a long term trend towards cooler SSTs and increased mixed-layer productivity as the subantarctic inflow strengthened and polar icesheets expanded.

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I developed a new model for estimating annual production-to-biomass ratio P/B and production P of macrobenthic populations in marine and freshwater habitats. Self-learning artificial neural networks (ANN) were used to model the relationships between P/B and twenty easy-to-measure abiotic and biotic parameters in 1252 data sets of population production. Based on log-transformed data, the final predictive model estimates log(P/B) with reasonable accuracy and precision (r2 = 0.801; residual mean square RMS = 0.083). Body mass and water temperature contributed most to the explanatory power of the model. However, as with all least squares models using nonlinearly transformed data, back-transformation to natural scale introduces a bias in the model predictions, i.e., an underestimation of P/B (and P). When estimating production of assemblages of populations by adding up population estimates, accuracy decreases but precision increases with the number of populations in the assemblage.

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There is much uncertainty surrounding the mechanisms that forced the abrupt climate fluctuations found in many palaeoclimate records during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS)-3. One of the processes thought to be involved in these events is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), which exhibited large changes in its dominant mode throughout the last glacial period. Giant piston core MD95-2006 from the northeast Atlantic Ocean records a suite of palaeoceanographic proxies related to the activity of both surface and deep water masses through a period of MIS-3 when abrupt climate fluctuations were extremely pronounced. A two-stage progression of surface water warming during interstadial warm events is proposed, with initial warming related to the northward advection of a thin warm surface layer within the North Atlantic Current, which only extended into deeper surface layers as the interstadial progressed. Benthic foraminifera isotope data also show millennial-scale oscillations but of a different structure to the abrupt surface water changes. These changes are argued to partly be related to the influence of low-salinity deepwater brines. The influence of deepwater brines over the site of MD95-2006 reached a maximum at times of rapid warming of surface waters. This observation supports the suggestion that brine formation may have helped to destabilize the accumulation of warm, saline surface waters at low latitudes, helping to force the MOC into a warm mode of operation. The contribution of deepwater brines relative to other mechanisms proposed to alter the state of the MOC needs to be examined further in future studies.

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A uniform chronology for foraminifera-based sea surface temperature records has been established in more than 120 sediment cores obtained from the equatorial and eastern Atlantic up to the Arctic Ocean. The chronostratigraphy of the last 30,000 years is mainly based on published d18O records and 14C ages from accelerator mass spectrometry, converted into calendar-year ages. The high-precision age control provides the database necessary for the uniform reconstruction of the climate interval of the Last Glacial Maximum within the GLAMAP-2000 project.