Decision evaluation in complex risk network systems (DecernsSDSS) demo and Black River case study

The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality of monitoring programs and characterizing project success. Moreover it is oftentimes very difficult to balance the importance of multiple ecological, social, and economical metrics. Metric selection process is a complex and must simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. We propose multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, for the selection of optimal sets of metrics to enhance evaluation of ecosystem restoration alternatives. Two MCDA methods, a multiattribute utility analysis (MAUT), and a probabilistic multicriteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), are applied and compared for a hypothetical case study of a river restoration involving multiple stakeholders. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, unbiased, and transparent solution, informing restoration alternatives evaluation. The two methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criteria, it is suggested as the best option if data uncertainty is high. Despite the increase in complexity in the metric selection process, MCDA improves upon the current ad-hoc decision practice based on the consultations with stakeholders and experts, and encourages transparent and quantitative aggregation of data and judgement, increasing the transparency of decision making in restoration projects. We believe that MCDA can enhance the overall sustainability of ecosystem by enhancing both ecological and societal needs.

Phenotypic evolution in a venerid bivalve species lineage from the late Middle Miocene Central Paratethys Sea: a multi-approach morphometric analysis

A morphometric analysis was performed for the late Middle Miocene bivalve species lineage of Polititapes tricuspis (Eichwald, 1829) (Veneridae: Tapetini). Specimens from various localities grouped into two stratigraphically successive biozones, i.e. the upper Ervilia Zone and the Sarmatimactra Zone, were investigated using a multi-method approach. A Generalized Procrustes Analysis was computed for fifteen landmarks, covering characteristics of the hinge, muscle scars, and pallial line. The shell outline was separately quantified by applying the Fast Fourier Transform, which redraws the outline by fitting in a combination of trigonometric curves. Shell size was calculated as centroid size from the landmark configuration. Shell thickness, as not covered by either analysis, was additionally measured at the centroid. The analyses showed significant phenotypic differentiation between specimens from the two biozones. The bivalves become distinctly larger and thicker over geological time and develop circular shells with stronger cardinal teeth and a deeper pallial sinus. Data on the paleoenvironmental changes in the late Middle Miocene Central Paratethys Sea suggest the phenotypic shifts to be functional adaptations. The typical habitats for Polititapes changed to extensive, very shallow shores exposed to high wave action and tidal activity. Caused by the growing need for higher mechanical stability, the bivalves produced larger and thicker shells with stronger cardinal teeth. The latter are additionally shifted towards the hinge center to compensate for the lacking lateral teeth and improve stability. The deepening pallial sinus is related to a deeper burrowing habit, which is considered to impede being washed out in the new high-energy settings.

(Figure 2) Mean discharge per day (total and baseflow part) of the San Francisco River and daily precipitation at station ECPL (Planta), in 2007

We investigated controls on the water chemistry of a South Ecuadorian cloud forest catchment which is partly pristine, and partly converted to extensive pasture. From April 2007 to May 2008 water samples were taken weekly to biweekly at nine different subcatchments, and were screened for differences in electric conductivity, pH, anion, as well as element composition. A principal component analysis was conducted to reduce dimensionality of the data set and define major factors explaining variation in the data. Three main factors were isolated by a subset of 10 elements (Ca2+, Ce, Gd, K+, Mg2+, Na+, Nd, Rb, Sr, Y), explaining around 90% of the data variation. Land-use was the major factor controlling and changing water chemistry of the subcatchments. A second factor was associated with the concentration of rare earth elements in water, presumably highlighting other anthropogenic influences such as gravel excavation or road construction. Around 12% of the variation was explained by the third component, which was defined by the occurrence of Rb and K and represents the influence of vegetation dynamics on element accumulation and wash-out. Comparison of base- and fast flow concentrations led to the assumption that a significant portion of soil water from around 30 cm depth contributes to storm flow, as revealed by increased rare earth element concentrations in fast flow samples. Our findings demonstrate the utility of multi-tracer principal component analysis to study tropical headwater streams, and emphasize the need for effective land management in cloud forest catchments.

Observations on the propagation of internal tidal waves on the continental slope off Sierra Leone

During R/V Meteor-cruise no. 30 4 moorings with 17 current meters were placed on the continental slope of Sierra Leone at depths between 81 and 1058 meters. The observation period started on March 8, 1973, 16.55 hours GMT and lasted 19 days for moorings M30_068MOOR, M30_069MOOR, M30_070MOOR on the slope and 9 days for M30_067MOOR on the shelf. One current meter recorded at location M30_067MOOR for 22 days. Hydrographic data were collected at 32 stations by means of the "Kieler Multi-Meeressonde". Harmonic analysis is applied to the first 15 days of the time series to determine the M2 and S2 tides. By vertically averaging of the Fourier coefficients the field of motion is separated into its barotropic and its baroclinic component. The expected error generated by white Gaussian noise is estimated. To estimate the influence of the particular vertical distribution of the current meters, the barotropic M2 tide is calculated by ommitting and interchanging time series of different moorings. It is shown that only the data of moorings M30_069MOOR, M30_070MOOR and M30_067MOOR can be used. The results for the barotropic M2 tide agree well with the previous publications of other authors. On the slope at a depth of 1000 m there is a free barotropic wave under the influence of the Coriolis-force propagating along the slope with an amplitude of 3.4 cm S**-1. On the shelf, the maximum current is substantially greater (5.8 cm s**-1) and the direction of propagation is perpendicular to the slope. As for the continental slope a separation into different baroclinic modes using vertical eigenmodes is not reasonable, an interpretation of the total baroclinic wave field is tried by means of the method of characteristis. Assuming the continental slope to generate several linear waves, which superpose, baroclinic tidal ellipses are calculated. The scattering of the direction of the major axes M30_069MOOR is in contrast to M30_070MOOR, where they are bundled within an angle of 60°. This is presumably caused by the different character of the bottom topography in the vicinity of the two moorings. A detailed discussion of M30_069MOOR is renounced since the accuracy of the bathymetric chart is not sufficient to prove any relation between waves and topography. The bundeling of the major axes at M30_070MOOR can be explained by the longslope changes of the slope, which cause an energy transfer from the longslope barotropic component to the downslope baroclinic component. The maximum amplitude is found at a depth of 245 m where it is expected from the characteristics originating at the shelf edge. Because of the dominating barotropic tide high coherence is found between most of the current meters. To show the influence of the baroclinic tidal waves, the effect of the mean current is considered. There are two periods nearly opposite longshore mean current. For 128 hours during each of these periods, starting on March 11, 05.00, and March 21, 08.30, the coherences and energy spectra are calculated. The changes in the slope of the characteristics are found in agreement with the changes of energy and coherence. Because of the short periods of nearly constant mean current, some of the calculated differences of energy and coherence are not statistically significant. For the M2 tide a calculation of the ratios of vertically integrated total baroclinic energy and vertically integrated barotropic kinetic energy is carried out. Taking into account both components (along and perpendicular to the slope) the obtained values are 0.75 and 0.98 at the slope and 0.38 at the shelf. If each component is considered separately, the ratios are 0.39 and 1.16 parallel to the slope and 5.1 and 15.85 for the component perpendicular to it. Taking the energy transfer from the longslope component to the doenslope component into account, a simple model yields an energy-ratio of 2.6. Considering the limited application of the theory to the real conditions, the obtained are in agreement with the values calculated by Sandstroem.

European mink (Mustela lutreola) and American mink (Neovison vison) detection histories in Northern Spain between 2000 and 2011

Understanding changes over time in the distribution of interacting native and invasive species that may be symptomatic of competitive exclusion is critical to identify the need for and effectiveness of management interventions. Occupancy models greatly increase the robustness of inference that can be made from presence/absence data when species are imperfectly detected, and recent novel developments allow for the quantification of the strength of interaction between pairs of species. We used a two-species multi-season occupancy model to quantify the impact of the invasive American mink on the native European mink in Spain through the analysis of their co-occurrence pattern over twelve years (2000 - 2011) in the entire Spanish range of European mink distribution, where both species were detected by live trapping but American mink were culled. We detected a negative temporal trend in the rate of occupancy of European mink and a simultaneous positive trend in the occupancy of American mink. The species co-occurred less often than expected and the native mink was more likely to become extinct from sites occupied by the invasive species. Removal of American mink resulted in a high probability of local extinction where it co-occurred with the endemic mink, but the overall increase in the probability of occupancy over the last decade indicates that the ongoing management is failing to halt its spread. More intensive culling effort where both species co-exist as well as in adjacent areas where the invasive American mink is found at high densities is required in order to stop thedecline of European mink.