Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Concentrations of persistant organic pollutants in Great skua eggs (Stercorarius skua) from Shetland 1980 and 2008

Concentrations of POPs in Great skua eggs from Shetland are among the highest in North Atlantic seabirds, with up to 11,600 µg/kg (ww) DDE and up to 17,900 µg/kg ww SumPCB. Concentrations of legacy POPs were significantly lower in 2008 than 1980. Decreases were greatest for least persistent compounds. Median SumPBDEs increased from 99 µg/kg ww in 1980 to 173 µg/kg ww in 2008. There were changes in Great skua breeding season diet, with more adult Herring and Mackerel and less Sandeel. These changes increase exposure to POPs, since Herring and Mackerel accumulate more POPs than Sandeels. In both years, eggs with higher d15N had higher POP concentrations. In 1980, birds feeding more on demersal discard fish from trawl fisheries and less on Sandeels, had higher POP levels in eggs. In 2008, individuals feeding more on Herring and Mackerel, and less on discards, had higher POP levels in eggs.

Effect of increased pCO2 level on early shell development in great scallop (Pecten maximus Lamarck) larvae

As a result of high anthropogenic CO2 emissions, the concentration of CO2 in the oceans has increased, causing a decrease in pH, known as ocean acidification (OA). Numerous studies have shown negative effects on marine invertebrates, and also that the early life stages are the most sensitive to OA. We studied the effects of OA on embryos and unfed larvae of the great scallop (Pecten maximus Lamarck), at pCO(2) levels of 469 (ambient), 807, 1164, and 1599 µatm until seven days after fertilization. To our knowledge, this is the first study on OA effects on larvae of this species. A drop in pCO(2) level the first 12 h was observed in the elevated pCO(2) groups due to a discontinuation in water flow to avoid escape of embryos. When the flow was restarted, pCO(2) level stabilized and was significantly different between all groups. OA affected both survival and shell growth negatively after seven days. Survival was reduced from 45% in the ambient group to 12% in the highest pCO(2) group. Shell length and height were reduced by 8 and 15 %, respectively, when pCO(2) increased from ambient to 1599 µatm. Development of normal hinges was negatively affected by elevated pCO(2) levels in both trochophore larvae after two days and veliger larvae after seven days. After seven days, deformities in the shell hinge were more connected to elevated pCO(2) levels than deformities in the shell edge. Embryos stained with calcein showed fluorescence in the newly formed shell area, indicating calcification of the shell at the early trochophore stage between one and two days after fertilization. Our results show that P. maximus embryos and early larvae may be negatively affected by elevated pCO(2) levels within the range of what is projected towards year 2250, although the initial drop in pCO(2) level may have overestimated the effect of the highest pCO(2) levels. Future work should focus on long-term effects on this species from hatching, throughout the larval stages, and further into the juvenile and adult stages.