Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

Static GPS measurements in the vicinity of EDML and an elevation model for Dronning Maud Land

The knowledge of ice sheet surface topography and the location of the ice divides are essential for ice dynamic modeling. An improved digital elevation model (DEM) of Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica, is presented in this paper. It is based on ground-based kinematic GPS profiles, airborne radar altimetry, and data of the airborne radio-echo sounding system, as well as spaceborne laser altimetry from NASA's Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat). The accuracy of ICESat ice sheet altimetry data in the area of investigation is discussed. The location of the ice divides is derived from aspect calculation of the topography and is verified with several velocity data derived from repeated static GPS measurements.

On the role of circulation and mixing in the ventilation of oxygen minimum zones with a focus on the eastern tropical North Atlantic

Ocean observations carried out in the framework of the Collaborative Research Center 754 (SFB 754) "Climate-Biogeochemistry Interactions in the Tropical Ocean" are used to study (1) the structure of tropical oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), (2) the processes that contribute to the oxygen budget, and (3) long-term changes in the oxygen distribution. The OMZ of the eastern tropical North Atlantic (ETNA), located between the well-ventilated subtropical gyre and the equatorial oxygen maximum, is composed of a deep OMZ at about 400 m depth with its core region centred at about 20° W, 10° N and a shallow OMZ at about 100 m depth with lowest oxygen concentrations in proximity to the coastal upwelling region off Mauritania and Senegal. The oxygen budget of the deep OMZ is given by oxygen consumption mainly balanced by the oxygen supply due to meridional eddy fluxes (about 60%) and vertical mixing (about 20%, locally up to 30%). Advection by zonal jets is crucial for the establishment of the equatorial oxygen maximum. In the latitude range of the deep OMZ, it dominates the oxygen supply in the upper 300 to 400 m and generates the intermediate oxygen maximum between deep and shallow OMZs. Water mass ages from transient tracers indicate substantially older water masses in the core of the deep OMZ (about 120-180 years) compared to regions north and south of it. The deoxygenation of the ETNA OMZ during recent decades suggests a substantial imbalance in the oxygen budget: about 10% of the oxygen consumption during that period was not balanced by ventilation. Long-term oxygen observations show variability on interannual, decadal and multidecadal time scales that can partly be attributed to circulation changes. In comparison to the ETNA OMZ the eastern tropical South Pacific OMZ shows a similar structure including an equatorial oxygen maximum driven by zonal advection, but overall much lower oxygen concentrations approaching zero in extended regions. As the shape of the OMZs is set by ocean circulation, the widespread misrepresentation of the intermediate circulation in ocean circulation models substantially contributes to their oxygen bias, which might have significant impacts on predictions of future oxygen levels.