25 resultados para Model transformation analysis

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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The basal melting and freezing rates under the Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, are evaluated, and their spatial distributions mapped. Ice velocity, surface elevation and accumulation rate datasets are employed in the analysis, along with a column-averaged ice density model. Our analysis shows that the total area of basal melting is 34 700 km**2, with a total annual melt of 62.5 ± 9.3 Gt and an average melting rate of 1.8 ± 0.3 m/a. Basal freezing mainly occurs in the northwestern part of the ice shelf, over a total area of 26100 km**2 and with a maximum freezing rate of 2.4 ± 0.4 m/a. The total marine ice that accretes to the ice-shelf base is estimated to be 16.2 ± 2.4 Gt/a. Using a redefined grounding line and geometry of the Amery Ice Shelf, we estimate the net melt over the ice-shelf base is about 46.4 ± 6.9 Gt/a, which is higher than previous modeling and oceanographic estimates. Net basal melting accounts for about half of the total ice-shelf mass loss, with the rest being from iceberg discharge. Our basal melting and freezing distribution map provides a scientific basis for quantitative analysis of ice-ocean interaction at the ice-shelf-ocean interface.

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Ocean acidification can have negative repercussions from the organism to ecosystem levels. Octocorals deposit high-magnesium calcite in their skeletons, and according to different models, they could be more susceptible to the depletion of carbonate ions than either calcite or aragonite-depositing organisms. This study investigated the response of the gorgonian coral Eunicea fusca to a range of CO2 concentrations from 285 to 4,568 ppm (pH range 8.1-7.1) over a 4-week period. Gorgonian growth and calcification were measured at each level of CO2 as linear extension rate and percent change in buoyant weight and calcein incorporation in individual sclerites, respectively. There was a significant negative relationship for calcification and CO2 concentration that was well explained by a linear model regression analysis for both buoyant weight and calcein staining. In general, growth and calcification did not stop in any of the concentrations of pCO2; however, some of the octocoral fragments experienced negative calcification at undersaturated levels of calcium carbonate (>4,500 ppm) suggesting possible dissolution effects. These results highlight the susceptibility of the gorgonian coral E. fusca to elevated levels of carbon dioxide but suggest that E. fusca could still survive well in mid-term ocean acidification conditions expected by the end of this century, which provides important information on the effects of ocean acidification on the dynamics of coral reef communities. Gorgonian corals can be expected to diversify and thrive in the Atlantic-Eastern Pacific; as scleractinian corals decline, it is likely to expect a shift in these reef communities from scleractinian coral dominated to octocoral/soft coral dominated under a "business as usual" scenario of CO2 emissions.

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Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou, http://www.marinespecies.org/aphia.php?p=taxdetails&id=126439) is a small mesopelagic planktivorous gadoid found throughout the North-East Atlantic. This data contains the results of a model-based analysis of larvae captured by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) during the period 1951-2005. The observations are analysed using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) of the the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in the occurrence of larvae. The best fitting model is chosen using the Aikaike Information Criteria (AIC). The probability of occurrence in the continous plankton recorder is then normalised and converted to a probability distribution function in space (UTM projection Zone 28) and season (day of year). The best fitting model splits the distribution into two separate spawning grounds north and south of a dividing line at 53 N. The probability distribution is therefore normalised in these two regions (ie the space-time integral over each of the two regions is 1). The modelled outputs are on a UTM Zone 28 grid: however, for convenience, the latitude ("lat") and longitude ("lon") of each of these grid points are also included as a variable in the NetCDF file. The assignment of each grid point to either the Northern or Southern component (defined here as north/south of 53 N), is also included as a further variable ("component"). Finally, the day of year ("doy") is stored as the number of days elapsed from and included January 1 (ie doy=1 on January 1) - the year is thereafter divided into 180 grid points.

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The Chinese Loess Plateau red clay sequences display a continuous alternation of sedimentary cycles that represent recurrent climatic fluctuations from 2.58 Ma to the Miocene. Deciphering such a record can provide us with vital information on global and Asian climatic variations. Lack of fossils and failure of absolute dating methods made magnetostratigraphy a leading method to build age models for the red clay sequences. Here we test the magnetostratigraphic age model against cyclostratigraphy. For this purpose we investigate the climate cyclicity recorded in magnetic susceptibility and sedimentary grain size in a red clay section previously dated 11Myr old with magnetostratigraphy alone. Magnetostratigraphy dating based on only visual correlation could potentially lead to erroneous age model. In this study the correlation is executed through the iteration procedure until it is supported by cyclostratigraphy; i.e., Milankovitch cycles are resolved in the best possible manner. Our new age model provides an age of 5.2Ma for the Shilou profile. Based on the new age model, wavelet analysis reveals the well-preserved 400 kyr and possible 100 kyr eccentricity cycles on the eastern Chinese Loess Plateau. Further, paleomonsoon evolution during 2.58-5.2Ma is reconstructed and divided into three intervals (2.58-3.6Ma, 3.6-4.5Ma, and 4.5-5.2Ma). The upper part, the youngest stage, is characterized by a relatively intensified summer monsoon, the middle stage reflects an intensification of the winter monsoon and aridification in Asia, and the earliest stage indicates that summer and winter monsoon cycles may have rapidly altered. The use of cyclostratigraphy along withmagnetostratigraphy gives us an effectivemethod of dating red clay sequences, and our results imply that many presently published age models for the red clay deposits should be perhaps re-evaluated.

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Nutrient addition experiments were performed during the austral summer in the Amundsen Sea (Southern Ocean) to investigate the availability of organically bound iron (Fe) to the phytoplankton communities, as well as assess their response to Fe amendment. Changes in autotrophic biomass, pigment concentration, maximum photochemical efficiency of photosystem II, and nutrient concentration were recorded in response to the addition of dissolved free Fe (DFe) and Fe bound to different model ligands. Analysis of pigment concentrations indicated that the autotrophic community was dominated by the prymnesiophyte Phaeocystis antarctica throughout most of the Amundsen Sea, although diatoms dominated in two experiments conducted in the marginal ice zone. Few significant differences in bulk community biomass (particulate organic carbon, nitrogen, and chlorophyll a) were observed, relative to the controls, in treatments with Fe added alone or bound to the ligand phytic acid. In contrast, when Fe was bound to the ligand desferrioxamine B (DFB), decreases in the bulk biomass indices were observed. The concentration of the diatom accessory pigment fucoxanthin showed little response to Fe additions, while the concentration of the P. antarctica-specific pigment, 19'-hexanoyloxyfucoxanthin (19'-hex), decreased when Fe was added alone or bound to the model ligands. Lastly, differences in the nitrate:phosphate (NO3- :PO4**3-) utilization ratio were observed between the Fe-amended treatments, with Fe bound to DFB resulting in the lowest NO3- :PO4**3- uptake ratios (~ 10) and the remaining Fe treatments having higher NO3- :PO4**3- uptake ratios (~ 17). The data are discussed with respect to glacial inputs of Fe in the Amundsen Sea and the bioavailability of Fe. We suggest that the previously observed high NO3- :PO4**3- utilization ratio of P. antarctica is a consequence of its production of dissolved organic matter that acts as ligands and increases the bioavailability of Fe, thereby stimulating the uptake of NO3-.

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A multiproxy study of palaeoceanographic and climatic changes in northernmost Baffin Bay shows that major environmental changes have occurred since the deglaciation of the area at about 12 500 cal. yr BP. The interpretation is based on sedimentology, benthic and planktonic foraminifera and their isotopic composition, as well as diatom assemblages in the sedimentary records at two core sites, one located in the deeper central part of northernmost Baffin Bay and one in a separate trough closer to the Greenland coast. A revised chronology for the two records is established on the basis of 15 previously published AMS 14C age determinations. A basal diamicton is overlain by laminated, fossil-free sediments. Our data from the early part of the fossiliferous record (12 300 - 11 300 cal. yr BP), which is also initially laminated, indicate extensive seasonal sea-ice cover and brine release. There is indication of a cooling event between 11 300 and 10 900 cal. yr BP, and maximum Atlantic Water influence occurred between 10 900 and 8200 cal. yr BP (no sediment recovery between 8200 and 7300 cal. yr BP). A gradual, but fluctuating, increase in sea-ice cover is seen after 7300 cal. yr BP. Sea-ice diatoms were particularly abundant in the central part of northernmost Baffin Bay, presumably due to the inflow of Polar waters from the Arctic Ocean, and less sea ice occurred at the near-coastal site, which was under continuous influence of the West Greenland Current. Our data from the deep, central part show a fluctuating degree of upwelling after c. 7300 cal. yr BP, culminating between 4000 and 3050 cal. yr BP. There was a gradual increase in the influence of cold bottom waters from the Arctic Ocean after about 3050 cal. yr BP, when agglutinated foraminifera became abundant. A superimposed short-term change in the sea-surface proxies is correlated with the Little Ice Age cooling.

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Pollen and spores from a deep-sea core located west of the Niger Delta record an uninterrupted area of lowland rain forest in West Africa from Guinea to Cameroon during the last Interglacial and the early Holocene. During other periods of the last 150 ka, a savanna corridor between the western - Guinean - and the eastern - Congolian - part of the African lowland rain forest existed. This so-called Dahomey Gap had its largest extension during Glacial Stages 6, 4, 3, and 2. Reduced surface salinity in the eastern Gulf of Guinea as recorded by dinoflagellate cysts indicates sufficient precipitation for extensive forest growth during Stages 5 and 1. The large modern extension of dry forest and savanna in West Africa cannot be solely explained by climatic factors. Mangrove expansion in and west of the Niger Delta was largest during the phases of sea-level rise of Stages 5 and 1. During Stages 6, 4, 3, and 2, shelf areas were exposed and the area of the mangrove swamps was minimal.