15 resultados para Model based control
em Publishing Network for Geoscientific
Resumo:
It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.
Resumo:
Dating of sediment cores from the Baltic Sea has proven to be difficult due to uncertainties surrounding the 14C reservoir age and a scarcity of macrofossils suitable for dating. Here we present the results of multiple dating methods carried out on cores in the Gotland Deep area of the Baltic Sea. Particular emphasis is placed on the Littorina stage (8 ka ago to the present) of the Baltic Sea and possible changes in the 14C reservoir age of our dated samples. Three geochronological methods are used. Firstly, palaeomagnetic secular variations (PSV) are reconstructed, whereby ages are transferred to PSV features through comparison with varved lake sediment based PSV records. Secondly, lead (Pb) content and stable isotope analysis are used to identify past peaks in anthropogenic atmospheric Pb pollution. Lastly, 14C determinations were carried out on benthic foraminifera (Elphidium spec.) samples from the brackish Littorina stage of the Baltic Sea. Determinations carried out on smaller samples (as low as 4 µg C) employed an experimental, state-of-the-art method involving the direct measurement of CO2 from samples by a gas ion source without the need for a graphitisation step - the first time this method has been performed on foraminifera in an applied study. The PSV chronology, based on the uppermost Littorina stage sediments, produced ten age constraints between 6.29 and 1.29 cal ka BP, and the Pb depositional analysis produced two age constraints associated with the Medieval pollution peak. Analysis of PSV data shows that adequate directional data can be derived from both the present Littorina saline phase muds and Baltic Ice Lake stage varved glacial sediments. Ferrimagnetic iron sulphides, most likely authigenic greigite (Fe3S4), present in the intermediate Ancylus Lake freshwater stage sediments acquire a gyroremanent magnetisation during static alternating field (AF) demagnetisation, preventing the identification of a primary natural remanent magnetisation for these sediments. An inferred marine reservoir age offset (deltaR) is calculated by comparing the foraminifera 14C determinations to a PSV & Pb age model. This deltaR is found to trend towards younger values upwards in the core, possibly due to a gradual change in hydrographic conditions brought about by a reduction in marine water exchange from the open sea due to continued isostatic rebound.
Resumo:
At Sleipner, CO2 is being separated from natural gas and injected into an underground saline aquifer for environmental purposes. Uncertainty in the aquifer temperature leads to uncertainty in the in situ density of CO2. In this study, gravity measurements were made over the injection site in 2002 and 2005 on top of 30 concrete benchmarks on the seafloor in order to constrain the in situ CO2 density. The gravity measurements have a repeatability of 4.3 µGal for 2003 and 3.5 µGal for 2005. The resulting time-lapse uncertainty is 5.3 µGal. Unexpected benchmark motions due to local sediment scouring contribute to the uncertainty. Forward gravity models are calculated based on both 3D seismic data and reservoir simulation models. The time-lapse gravity observations best fit a high temperature forward model based on the time-lapse 3D seismics, suggesting that the average in situ CO2 density is about to 530kg/m**3. Uncertainty in determining the average density is estimated to be ±65 kg/m**3 (95% confidence), however, this does not include uncertainties in the modeling. Additional seismic surveys and future gravity measurements will put better constraints on the CO2 density and continue to map out the CO2 flow.
Resumo:
We present the first ecosystem-scale methane flux data from a northern Siberian tundra ecosystem covering the entire snow-free period from spring thaw until initial freeze-back. Eddy covariance measurements of methane emission were carried out from the beginning of June until the end of September in the southern central part of the Lena River Delta (72°22' N, 126°30' E). The study site is located in the zone of continuous permafrost and is characterized by Arctic continental climate with very low precipitation and a mean annual temperature of -14.7°C. We found relatively low fluxes of on average 18.7 mg/m**2/d, which we consider to be because of (1) extremely cold permafrost, (2) substrate limitation of the methanogenic archaea, and (3) a relatively high surface coverage of noninundated, moderately moist areas. Near-surface turbulence as measured by the eddy covariance system in 4 m above the ground surface was identified as the most important control on ecosystem-scale methane emission and explained about 60% of the variance in emissions, while soil temperature explained only 8%. In addition, atmospheric pressure was found to significantly improve an exponential model based on turbulence and soil temperature. Ebullition from waterlogged areas triggered by decreasing atmospheric pressure and near-surface turbulence is thought to be an important pathway that warrants more attention in future studies. The close coupling of methane fluxes and atmospheric parameters demonstrated here raises questions regarding the reliability of enclosure-based measurements, which inherently exclude these parameters.
Resumo:
Climatic changes cause alterations in circulation patterns of the world oceans. The highly saline Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW), built within the Mediterranean Sea crosses the Strait of Gibraltar in westerly directions, turning north-westward to stick to the Iberian Slope within 600-1500m water depths. Circulation pattern and current speed of the MOW are strongly influenced by climatically induced variations and thus control sedimentation processes along the South- and West - Iberian Continental Slope. Sedimentation characteristics of the investigated area are therefore suitable to reconstruct temporal hydrodynamic changes of the MOW. Detailed investigations on the silt-sized grain distribution, physical properties and hydroacoustic data were performed to recalculate paleo-current-velocities and to understand the sedimentation history in the Golf of Cadiz and the Portuguese Continental Slope. A time model based on d18Odata and 14C-datings of planktic foraminifera allowed the stratigraphical classification of the core material and thus the dating of the current induced sediment layers showing the variations of paleo-current intensities. The evaluation and interpretation of the gathered data sets enabled us to reconstruct lateral and temporal sedimentation patterns of the MOW for the Holocene and the late Pleistocene, back to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).