Pollen and spores record, and paleotemperature reconstructions for mid-Holocene sediments of the Northwest Pacific

Sannai-Maruyama is one of the most famous and best-researched mid-Holocene (mid-Jomon) archaeological sites in Japan, because of a large community of people for a long period. Archaeological studies have shown that the Jomon people inhabited the Sannai-Maruyama site from 5.9-4.2 +/- 0.1 cal. kyr B.P. However, a continuous record of the terrestrial and marine environments around the site has not been available. Core KT05-7 PC-02, was recovered from Mutsu Bay, only 20 km from the site, for the reconstruction of high-resolution time series of environmental records, including sea surface temperature (SST). C37 alkenone SSTs showed clear fluctuations, with four periods of high (8.4-7.9, 7.0-5.9, 5.1-4.1, and 2.3-1.4 cal. kyr B.P.) and four of low (-8.4, 7.9-7.0, 5.9-5.1, and 4.1-2.3 cal. kyr B.P.) SST. Thus, each SST cycle lasted 1.0-2.0 kyr, and the amplitude of fluctuation was about 1.5-2.0 °C. Total organic carbon (TOC) and C37 alkenone contents, and the TOC/total nitrogen ratio indicate that marine biogenic production was low before 7.0 cal. kyr B.P., but was clearly increased between 5.9 and 4.0 cal. kyr B.P., because of stronger vertical mixing. During the period when the community at the site prospered (between 5.9 and 4.2 +/- 0.1 cal. kyr B.P.), the terrestrial climate was relatively warm. The high relative abundance of pollen of both Castanea and Quercus subgen. Cyclobalanopsis supports the interpretation that the local climate was optimal for human habitation. Between 5.9 and 5.1 cal. kyr B.P., in spite of warm terrestrial climates, the C37 alkenone SST was low; this apparent discrepancy may be attributed to the water column structure in the Tsugaru Strait, which differed from the modern condition. The evidence suggests that at about 5.9 cal. kyr B.P, high productivity of marine resources such as fish and shellfish and a warm terrestrial climate led to the establishment of a human community at the Sannai-Maruyama site. Then, at about 4.1 +/- 0.1 cal. kyr B.P., abrupt marine and terrestrial cooling, indicated by a decrease of about 2 °C in the C37 alkenone SST and an increase in pollen of taxa of cooler climates, led to a reduced terrestrial food supply, causing the people to abandon the site. The timing of the abandonment is consistent with the timing (around 4.0-4.3 cal. kyr B.P.) of the decline of civilizations in north Mesopotamia and along the Yangtze River. These findings suggest that a temperature rise of ~2 °C in this century as a result of global warming could have a great impact on the human community and especially on agriculture, despite the advances of contemporary society.

Simulated transition to agropastoralism in the Indus valley 7500-3000 BC

The Indus Valley Civilization (IVC) was one of the first great civilizations in prehistory. This bronze age civilization flourished from the end of the fourth millennium BC. It disintegrated during the second millennium BC; despite much research effort, this decline is not well understood. Less research has been devoted to the emergence of the IVC, which shows continuous cultural precursors since at least the seventh millennium BC. To understand the decline, we believe it is necessary to investigate the rise of the IVC, i.e., the establishment of agriculture and livestock, dense populations and technological developments 7000-3000 BC. Although much archaeologically typed information is available, our capability to investigate the system is hindered by poorly resolved chronology, and by a lack of field work in the intermediate areas between the Indus valley and Mesopotamia. We thus employ a complementary numerical simulation to develop a consistent picture of technology, agropastoralism and population developments in the IVC domain. Results from this Global Land Use and technological Evolution Simulator show that there is (1) fair agreement between the simulated timing of the agricultural transition and radiocarbon dates from early agricultural sites, but the transition is simulated first in India then Pakistan; (2) an independent agropas- toralism developing on the Indian subcontinent; and (3) a positive relationship between archeological artifact richness and simulated population density which remains to be quantified.

Salinization MASS Model Version

This salinization simulation enables irrigation salinity, capillary rise, rainfall, leaching, salt mitigation strategies via fallowing, and other functions that are addressed in a coupled social-environment model applied to southern Mesopotamia. The simulation is applied to the Modeling Ancient Settlement Systems Project supported by the University of Chicago, Durham University, and Argonne National Laboratory. The simulation can be used for other regions.

Salinization Model with links to source files

This computational model of irrigation agriculture is used to study the effects of salinization in Mesopotamia. Scholars have long suspected that central and southern Mesopotamia present environments which limited agricultural production over long-term periods. In regions such as central Mesopotamia, where salinization likely affected settlement in different periods but was more manageable than in more southern regions, fallowing regimes, natural and engineered leaching, and decisions made on when to crop were strategies applied in order to limit the effects of salinization. The model is used to assess the effectiveness of these coping strategies by incorporating projected climate, soil, and landscape conditions with agricultural practices. The simulation results not only demonstrate the effectiveness and limitations of techniques to inhibiting progressive salinization but can be compared with the archaeological record in order to determine if the results correspond to past events and help to interpret past settlement history.