Decision evaluation in complex risk network systems (DecernsSDSS) demo and Black River case study

The selection of metrics for ecosystem restoration programs is critical for improving the quality of monitoring programs and characterizing project success. Moreover it is oftentimes very difficult to balance the importance of multiple ecological, social, and economical metrics. Metric selection process is a complex and must simultaneously take into account monitoring data, environmental models, socio-economic considerations, and stakeholder interests. We propose multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods, broadly defined, for the selection of optimal sets of metrics to enhance evaluation of ecosystem restoration alternatives. Two MCDA methods, a multiattribute utility analysis (MAUT), and a probabilistic multicriteria acceptability analysis (ProMAA), are applied and compared for a hypothetical case study of a river restoration involving multiple stakeholders. Overall, the MCDA results in a systematic, unbiased, and transparent solution, informing restoration alternatives evaluation. The two methods provide comparable results in terms of selected metrics. However, because ProMAA can consider probability distributions for weights and utility values of metrics for each criteria, it is suggested as the best option if data uncertainty is high. Despite the increase in complexity in the metric selection process, MCDA improves upon the current ad-hoc decision practice based on the consultations with stakeholders and experts, and encourages transparent and quantitative aggregation of data and judgement, increasing the transparency of decision making in restoration projects. We believe that MCDA can enhance the overall sustainability of ecosystem by enhancing both ecological and societal needs.

The effect of elevated CO2 and increased temperature on in vitro fertilization success and initial embryonic development of single male:female crosses of broad-cast spawning corals at mid- and high-latitude locations

The impact of global climate change on coral reefs is expected to be most profound at the sea surface, where fertilization and embryonic development of broadcast-spawning corals takes place. We examined the effect of increased temperature and elevated CO2 levels on the in vitro fertilization success and initial embryonic development of broadcast-spawning corals using a single male:female cross of three different species from mid- and high-latitude locations: Lyudao, Taiwan (22° N) and Kochi, Japan (32° N). Eggs were fertilized under ambient conditions (27 °C and 500 µatm CO2) and under conditions predicted for 2100 (IPCC worst case scenario, 31 °C and 1000 µatm CO2). Fertilization success, abnormal development and early developmental success were determined for each sample. Increased temperature had a more profound influence than elevated CO2. In most cases, near-future warming caused a significant drop in early developmental success as a result of decreased fertilization success and/or increased abnormal development. The embryonic development of the male:female cross of A. hyacinthus from the high-latitude location was more sensitive to the increased temperature (+4 °C) than the male:female cross of A. hyacinthus from the mid-latitude location. The response to the elevated CO2 level was small and highly variable, ranging from positive to negative responses. These results suggest that global warming is a more significant and universal stressor than ocean acidification on the early embryonic development of corals from mid- and high-latitude locations.

Parental exposure to elevated pCO2 influences the reproductive success of copepods

Substantial variations are reported for egg production and hatching rates of copepods exposed to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations (pCO2). One possible explanation, as found in other marine taxa, is that prior parental exposure to elevated pCO2 (and/or decreased pH) affects reproductive performance. Previous studies have adopted two distinct approaches, either (1) expose male and female copepoda to the test pCO2/pH scenarios, or (2) solely expose egg-laying females to the tests. Although the former approach is more realistic, the majority of studies have used the latter approach. Here, we investigated the variation in egg production and hatching success of Acartia tonsa between these two experimental designs, across five different pCO2 concentrations (385-6000 µatm pCO2). In addition, to determine the effect of pCO2 on the hatching success with no prior parental exposure, eggs produced and fertilized under ambient conditions were also exposed to these pCO2 scenarios. Significant variations were found between experimental designs, with approach (1) resulting in higher impacts; here >20% difference was seen in hatching success between experiments at 1000 µatm pCO2 scenarios (2100 year scenario), and >85% at 6000 µatm pCO2. This study highlights the potential to misrepresent the reproductive response of a species to elevated pCO2 dependent on parental exposure.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and sperm swimming speed, fertilization success of the Australasian sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma in lab experiment

Background: Climate change will lead to intense selection on many organisms, particularly during susceptible early life stages. To date, most studies on the likely biotic effects of climate change have focused on the mean responses of pooled groups of animals. Consequently, the extent to which inter-individual variation mediates different selection responses has not been tested. Investigating this variation is important, since some individuals may be preadapted to future climate scenarios. Methodology/Principal Findings: We examined the effect of CO2-induced pH changes ("ocean acidification") in sperm swimming behaviour on the fertilization success of the Australasian sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma, focusing on the responses of separate individuals and pairs. Acidification significantly decreased the proportion of motile sperm but had no effect on sperm swimming speed. Subsequent fertilization experiments showed strong inter-individual variation in responses to ocean acidification, ranging from a 44% decrease to a 14% increase in fertilization success. This was partly explained by the significant relationship between decreases in percent sperm motility and fertilization success at delta pH = 0.3, but not at delta pH = 0.5. Conclusions and Significance: The effects of ocean acidification on reproductive success varied markedly between individuals. Our results suggest that some individuals will exhibit enhanced fertilization success in acidified oceans, supporting the concept of 'winners' and 'losers' of climate change at an individual level. If these differences are heritable it is likely that ocean acidification will lead to selection against susceptible phenotypes as well as to rapid fixation of alleles that allow reproduction under more acidic conditions. This selection may ameliorate the biotic effects of climate change if taxa have sufficient extant genetic variation upon which selection can act.