Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

Foraminifer counts in core JM01-1199, and review of radiocarbon ages in the Norwegian-Barents Sea-Svalbard margin

We compare six high-resolution Holocene, sediment cores along a S-N transect on the Norwegian-Svalbard continental margin from ca 60°N to 77.4°N, northern North Atlantic. Planktonic foraminifera in the cores were investigated to show the changes in upper surface and subsurface water mass distribution and properties, including summer sea-surface temperatures (SST). The cores are located below the axis of the Norwegian Current and the West Spitsbergen Current, which today transport warm Atlantic Water to the Arctic. Sediment accumulation rates are generally high at all the core sites, allowing for a temporal resolution of 10-102 years. SST is reconstructed using different types of transfer functions, resulting in very similar SST trends, with deviations of no more than +- 1.0/1.5 °C. A transfer function based on the maximum likelihood statistical approach is found to be most relevant. The reconstruction documents an abrupt change in planktonic foraminiferal faunal composition and an associated warming at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition. The earliest part of the Holocene was characterized by large temperature variability, including the Preboreal Oscillations and the 8.2 k event. In general, the early Holocene was characterized by SSTs similar to those of today in the south and warmer than today in the north, and a smaller S-N temperature gradient (0.23 °C/°N) compared to the present temperature gradient (0.46 °C/°N). The southern proxy records (60-69°N) were more strongly influenced by slightly cooler subsurface water probably due to the seasonality of the orbital forcing and increased stratification due to freshening. The northern records (72-77.4°N) display a millennial-scale change associated with reduced insolation and a gradual weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The observed northwards amplification of the early Holocene warming is comparable to the pattern of recent global warming and future climate modelling, which predicts greater warming at higher latitudes. The overall trend during mid and late Holocene was a cooling in the north, stable or weak warming in the south, and a maximum S-N SST gradient of ca 0.7 °C/°N at 5000 cal. years BP. Superimposed on this trend were several abrupt temperature shifts. Four of these shifts, dated to 9000-8000, 5500-3000 and 1000 and ~400 cal. years BP, appear to be global, as they correlate with periods of global climate change. In general, there is a good correlation between the northern North Atlantic temperature records and climate records from Norway and Svalbard.

Table 1: Parameters of 21 samples from core III of Vernagtferner

The purpose of this study was: (1) To make an attempt at finding a stratification of the snowpack in order to help remove ambiguities in dating the snowlayers by standard methods. (2) To verify the depth at which the transition between firn and ice occurs. Clearly the first goal was missed, the structural information in a temperate firn being strongly smoothed out in time. Interesting details like horizontal ice lenses and layers of "cold snow" however, were revealed. In spite of strong variations of density, gravimetric density PG and ice density PI, computed from point density, are identical for the firn pack between Z = 2.0 m and 6.0 m. p(ice) = 0.522 ± 0.034 x 10**3 kg/m**3. The ice density of 0.8 x 10**3 kg/m**3, the assumed transition between firn and ice, was found to occur at a depth of Z= 19 m. Even at this level, rather important variations in density may be localized. Between Z= 19 m and 21 m, the ice density varies from 0.774 x 10**3 to 0.860 x 10**3 kg/m**3.

Three species distribution models for the marine diatom Fragilariopsis kerguelensis of the Southern Ocean, links to NetCDF files

Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

Crabeater seals (Lobodon carcinophaga) in the Weddell Sea during DRE1998 campaign

The crabeater seal (Lobodon carcinophaga) is the most abundant Antarctic seal and inhabits the circumpolar pack ice zone of the Southern Ocean. Until now, information on important environmental factors affecting its distribution as well as on foraging behaviour is limited. In austral summer 1998, 12 crabeater seals of both sexes and different age classes were equipped with satellitelinked dive recorders at Drescher Inlet (72.85°S, 19.26°E), eastern Weddell Sea. To identify suitable habitat conditions within the Weddell Sea, a maximum entropy (Maxent) modelling approach was implemented. The model revealed that the eastern and southern Weddell Sea is especially suitable for crabeater seals. Distance to the continental shelf break and sea ice concentration were the two most important parameters in modelling species distribution throughout the study period. Model predictions demonstrated that crabeater seals showed a dynamic response to their seasonally changing environment emphasized by the favoured sea ice conditions. Crabeater seals utilized ice-free waters substantially, which is potentially explained by the comparatively low sea ice cover of the Weddell Sea during summer 1998. Diving behaviour was characterized by short (>90 % = 0-4 min) and shallow (>90 % = 0-51 m) dives. This pattern reflects the typical summer and autumn foraging behaviour of crabeater seals. Both the distribution and foraging behaviour corresponded well with the life history of the Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), the preferred prey of crabeater seals. In general, predicted suitable habitat conditions were congruent with probable habitats of krill, which emphasizes the strong dependence on their primary prey.

(Table 1) Summary statistics of taxa in samples of ODP Hole 181-1123B

Planktonic foraminifera are used to identify late Pliocene-Quaternary near surface water masses on the northeastern flank of Chatham Rise by comparison with faunas in core-tops east of New Zealand. In an overview study, distance measures, ordinations, and discriminant analysis are applied to 32 faunas from Site 1123B to identify similar faunas among 35 core-tops between 35 and 61°S east of New Zealand. Many Site 1123B faunas in the 2.72 myr interval sampled compare with those in core-tops on the northern side of Chatham Rise from a similar latitude, and are identified as transitional zone assemblages now associated with the subtropical gyre. This result is consistent with studies of late Quaternary planktonic foraminifera from this region and suggests that, typically, the Subtropical Front was locked to Chatham Rise through glacial and interglacial periods, at least back to the late Pliocene. However, a fauna at ca. 1.17 Ma compares with subpolar assemblages in core-tops between 44 and 48°S and identifies cooler surface water. Expectedly, closer sampling may reveal additional periods when southern water moved over the northeastern flank of Chatham Rise. Although the dominance of Globorotalia inflata, a species typical of the southern margin of subtropical gyres, is a principal feature of Site 1123B faunas, in a minority it is replaced as the most abundant species by dextral populations of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, particularly about the time of the middle Pleistocene transition. Close analogues of these variant transitional assemblages are not present in core-tops about Chatham Rise but sediment trap and coretop data from other regions suggest that they identify high fertility in the mixed layer associated with upwelling or mixing of water masses. The proportion of sinistrally coiled Neogloboquadrina pachyderma rises to ca. 0.6 between ca. 2.45 and 2.57 Ma, soon after the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Although the coiling data indicate subantarctic near surface water, the species remains rare. As the faunas retain their transitional zone character, only minor entrainment of subantarctic water may have occurred.

Ages and diatom temperature values of DSDP sites in the western Pacific Ocean

Maximum entropy spectral analyses and a fitting test to find the best suitable curve for the modified time series based on the non-linear least squares method for Td (diatom temperature) values were performed for the Quaternary portion of the DSDP Sites 579 and 580 in the western North Pacific. The sampling interval averages 13.7 kyr in the Brunhes Chron (0-780 ka) and 16.5 kyr in the later portion of the Matuyama Chron (780-1800 ka) at Site 580, but increases to 17.3 kyr and 23.2 kyr, respectively, at Site 579. Among dominant cycles during the Brunhes Chron, there are 411.5 kyr and 126.0 kyr at Site 579, and 467.0 kyr and 136.7 kyr at Site 580 correspond to 413 kyr and 95 to 124 kyr of the orbital eccentricity. Minor cycles of 41.2 kyr at Site 579 and 41.7 kyr at Site 580 are near to 41 kyr of the obliquity (tilt). During the Matuyama Chron at Site 580, cycles of 49.7 kyr and 43.6 kyr are dominant. The surface-water temperature estimated from diatoms at the western North Pacific DSDP Sites 579 and 580 shows correlation with the fundamental Earth's orbital parameters during Quaternary time.

Mapped cetacean habitat suitability and richness in the Azores, links to ArcGIS files

Marine spatial planning and ecological research call for high-resolution species distribution data. However, those data are still not available for most marine large vertebrates. The dynamic nature of oceanographic processes and the wide-ranging behavior of many marine vertebrates create further difficulties, as distribution data must incorporate both the spatial and temporal dimensions. Cetaceans play an essential role in structuring and maintaining marine ecosystems and face increasing threats from human activities. The Azores holds a high diversity of cetaceans but the information about spatial and temporal patterns of distribution for this marine megafauna group in the region is still very limited. To tackle this issue, we created monthly predictive cetacean distribution maps for spring and summer months, using data collected by the Azores Fisheries Observer Programme between 2004 and 2009. We then combined the individual predictive maps to obtain species richness maps for the same period. Our results reflect a great heterogeneity in distribution among species and within species among different months. This heterogeneity reflects a contrasting influence of oceanographic processes on the distribution of cetacean species. However, some persistent areas of increased species richness could also be identified from our results. We argue that policies aimed at effectively protecting cetaceans and their habitats must include the principle of dynamic ocean management coupled with other area-based management such as marine spatial planning.

Sea-surface temperature and sea ice distribution of the Southern Ocean at the EPILOG Last Glacial Maximum

Based on the quantitative study of diatoms and radiolarians, summer sea-surface temperature (SSST) and sea ice distribution were estimated from 122 sediment core localities in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean to reconstruct the last glacial environment at the EPILOG (19.5-16.0 ka or 23 000-19 000 cal yr. B.P.) time-slice. The statistical methods applied include the Imbrie and Kipp Method, the Modern Analog Technique and the General Additive Model. Summer SSTs reveal greater surface-water cooling than reconstructed by CLIMAP (Geol. Soc. Am. Map Chart. Ser. MC-36 (1981) 1), reaching a maximum (4-5 °C) in the present Subantarctic Zone of the Atlantic and Indian sector. The reconstruction of maximum winter sea ice (WSI) extent is in accordance with CLIMAP, showing an expansion of the WSI field by around 100% compared to the present. Although only limited information is available, the data clearly show that CLIMAP strongly overestimated the glacial summer sea ice extent. As a result of the northward expansion of Antarctic cold waters by 5-10° in latitude and a relatively small displacement of the Subtropical Front, thermal gradients were steepened during the last glacial in the northern zone of the Southern Ocean. Such reconstruction may, however, be inapposite for the Pacific sector. The few data available indicate reduced cooling in the southern Pacific and give suggestion for a non-uniform cooling of the glacial Southern Ocean.

Geochemistry of Late Paleocene thermal maximum sediments

The late Paleocene thermal maximum (LPTM) was a dramatic, short-term global warming event that occurred ~55 Ma. Warming of high-latitude surface waters and global deep waters during the LPTM has been well documented; however, current data suggest that subtropical and tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) did not change during the event. Conventional paradigms of global climate change, such as CO2-induced greenhouse warming, predict greater warming in the high latitudes than in the tropics or subtropics but, nonetheless, cannot account for the stable tropical/subtropical SSTs. We measured the stable isotope values of well-preserved late Paleocene to early Eocene planktonic foraminifera from South Atlantic Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 527 to evaluate the subtropical response to the climatic and environmental changes of the LPTM. Planktonic foraminiferal d18O values at Site 527 decrease by ~0.94 per mil from pre-LPTM to excursion values, providing the first evidence for subtropical warming during the LPTM. We estimate that subtropical South Atlantic SSTs warmed by at least ~1°-4°C, on the basis of possible changes in evaporation and precipitation. The new evidence for subtropical SST warming supports a greenhouse mechanism for global warming involving elevated atmospheric CO2 levels.

Annual layer thicknesses and age-depth (oldest estimate) of Derwael Ice Rise (IC12), Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

A 120 m-long ice core was drilled in 2012 on the Derwael Ice Rise, coastal Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. Water stable isotopes (d18O and dD) stratigraphy is supplemented by discontinuous major ion profiles and continuous electrical conductivity measurements. The base of the ice core is dated to AD 1759 ± 16, providing a climate proxy for the past ~250 years. This data set presents the core's annual layer thickness history in meters water equivalent for the oldest age-depth estimate before correction for the influence of ice deformation.