Microcharcoal concentration and elongation, and age model of sediment core MD96-2098

Although grassland and savanna occupy only a quarter of the world's vegetation, burning in these ecosystems accounts for roughly half the global carbon emissions from fire. However, the processes that govern changes in grassland burning are poorly understood, particularly on time scales beyond satellite records. We analyzed microcharcoal, sediments, and geochemistry in a high-resolution marine sediment core off Namibia to identify the processes that have controlled biomass burning in southern African grassland ecosystems under large, multimillennial-scale climate changes. Six fire cycles occurred during the past 170,000 y in southern Africa that correspond both in timing and magnitude to the precessional forcing of north-south shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Contrary to the conventional expectation that fire increases with higher temperatures and increased drought, we found that wetter and cooler climates cause increased burning in the study region, owing to a shift in rainfall amount and seasonality (and thus vegetation flammability). We also show that charcoal morphology (i.e., the particle's length-to-width ratio) can be used to reconstruct changes in fire activity as well as biome shifts over time. Our results provide essential context for understanding current and future grassland-fire dynamics and their associated carbon emissions.

Charcoal records of two sediment cores off SW Africa

We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.

Debris flow magnitudes: a global catalog

The episodic occurrence of debris flow events in response to stochastic precipitation and wildfire events makes hazard prediction challenging. Previous work has shown that frequency-magnitude distributions of non-fire-related debris flows follow a power law, but less is known about the distribution of post-fire debris flows. As a first step in parameterizing hazard models, we use frequency-magnitude distributions and cumulative distribution functions to compare volumes of post-fire debris flows to non-fire-related debris flows. Due to the large number of events required to parameterize frequency-magnitude distributions, and the relatively small number of post-fire event magnitudes recorded in the literature, we collected data on 73 recent post-fire events in the field. The resulting catalog of 988 debris flow events is presented as an appendix to this article. We found that the empirical cumulative distribution function of post-fire debris flow volumes is composed of smaller events than that of non-fire-related debris flows. In addition, the slope of the frequency-magnitude distribution of post-fire debris flows is steeper than that of non-fire-related debris flows, evidence that differences in the post-fire environment tend to produce a higher proportion of small events. We propose two possible explanations: 1) post-fire events occur on shorter return intervals than debris flows in similar basins that do not experience fire, causing their distribution to shift toward smaller events due to limitations in sediment supply, or 2) fire causes changes in resisting and driving forces on a package of sediment, such that a smaller perturbation of the system is required in order for a debris flow to occur, resulting in smaller event volumes.