Gridded climate data from 5 Global Climate Models (GCM) of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) downscaled to 30 arc seconds for Europe, with links to NetCDF files

Studies on the impact of historical, current and future global change require very high-resolution climate data (less or equal 1km) as a basis for modelled responses, meaning that data from digital climate models generally require substantial rescaling. Another shortcoming of available datasets on past climate is that the effects of sea level rise and fall are not considered. Without such information, the study of glacial refugia or early Holocene plant and animal migration are incomplete if not impossible. Sea level at the last glacial maximum (LGM) was approximately 125m lower, creating substantial additional terrestrial area for which no current baseline data exist. Here, we introduce the development of a novel, gridded climate dataset for LGM that is both very high resolution (1km) and extends to the LGM sea and land mask. We developed two methods to extend current terrestrial precipitation and temperature data to areas between the current and LGM coastlines. The absolute interpolation error is less than 1°C and 0.5 °C for 98.9% and 87.8% of all pixels for the first two 1 arc degree distance zones. We use the change factor method with these newly assembled baseline data to downscale five global circulation models of LGM climate to a resolution of 1km for Europe. As additional variables we calculate 19 'bioclimatic' variables, which are often used in climate change impact studies on biological diversity. The new LGM climate maps are well suited for analysing refugia and migration during Holocene warming following the LGM.

Detection histories for eight species of Amazona parrots in Venezuela during the NeoMaps bird surveys in 2010

Documenting changes in distribution is necessary for understanding species' response to environmental changes, but data on species distributions are heterogeneous in accuracy and resolution. Combining different data sources and methodological approaches can fill gaps in knowledge about the dynamic processes driving changes in species-rich, but data-poor regions. We combined recent bird survey data from the Neotropical Biodiversity Mapping Initiative (NeoMaps) with historical distribution records to estimate potential changes in the distribution of eight species of Amazon parrots in Venezuela. Using environmental covariates and presence-only data from museum collections and the literature, we first used maximum likelihood to fit a species distribution model (SDM) estimating a historical maximum probability of occurrence for each species. We then used recent, NeoMaps survey data to build single-season occupancy models (OM) with the same environmental covariates, as well as with time- and effort-dependent detectability, resulting in estimates of the current probability of occurrence. We finally calculated the disagreement between predictions as a matrix of probability of change in the state of occurrence. Our results suggested negative changes for the only restricted, threatened species, Amazona barbadensis, which has been independently confirmed with field studies. Two of the three remaining widespread species that were detected, Amazona amazonica, Amazona ochrocephala, also had a high probability of negative changes in northern Venezuela, but results were not conclusive for Amazona farinosa. The four remaining species were undetected in recent field surveys; three of these were most probably absent from the survey locations (Amazona autumnalis, Amazona mercenaria and Amazona festiva), while a fourth (Amazona dufresniana) requires more intensive targeted sampling to estimate its current status. Our approach is unique in taking full advantage of available, but limited data, and in detecting a high probability of change even for rare and patchily-distributed species. However, it is presently limited to species meeting the strong assumptions required for maximum-likelihood estimation with presence-only data, including very high detectability and representative sampling of its historical distribution.

Sedimentation across the Great Barrier Reef

The continental margin off northeast Australia, comprising the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) platform and Queensland Trough, is the largest tropical mixed siliciclastic/carbonate depositional system in existence. We describe a suite of 35 piston cores and two Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) sites from a 130*240 km rectangular area of the Queensland Trough, the slope and basin setting east of the central GBR platform. Oxygen isotope records, physical property (magnetic susceptibility and greyscale) logs, analyses of bulk carbonate content and radiocarbon ages at these locations are used to construct a high resolution stratigraphy. This information is used to quantify mass accumulation rates (MARs) for siliciclastic and carbonate sediments accumulating in the Queensland Trough over the last 31,000 years. For the slope, highest MARs of siliciclastic sediment occur during transgression (1.0 Million Tonnes per year; MT/yr), and lowest MARs of siliciclastic (<0.1 MT/yr) and carbonate (0.2 MT/yr) sediment occur during sea level lowstand. Carbonate MARs are similar to siliciclastic MARs for transgression and highstand (1.1-1.4 MT/yr). In contrast, for the basin, MARs of siliciclastic (0-0.1 MT/yr) and carbonate sediment (0.2-0.4 MT/yr) are continuously low, and within a factor of two, for lowstand, transgression, and highstand. Generic models for carbonate margins predict that maximum and minimum carbonate MARs on the slope will occur during highstand and lowstand, respectively. Conversely, most models for siliciclastic margins suggest maximum and minimum siliciclastic MARs will occur during lowstand and transgression, respectively. Although carbonate MARs in the Queensland Trough are similar to those predicted for carbonate depositional systems, siliciclastic MARs are the opposite. Given uniform siliciclastic MARs in the basin through time, we conclude that terrigenous material is stored on the shelf during sea level lowstand, and released to the slope during transgression as wave driven currents transport shelf sediment offshore.