Framework for risk assessment for maritime transportation systems

Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship-ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. The model can be run with the use of GeNIe software package. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found.

Soil characteristics of cryosols from two sites on King George Island, maritime Antarctica

This study presents soil temperature and moisture regimes from March 2008 to January 2009 for two active layer monitoring (CALM-S) sites at King George Island, Maritime Antarctica. The monitoring sites were installed during the summer of 2008 and consist of thermistors (accuracy of ±0.2 °C), arranged vertically with probes at different depths and one soil moisture probe placed at the bottommost layer at each site (accuracy of ± 2.5%), recording data at hourly intervals in a high capacity datalogger. The active layer thermal regime in the studied period for both soils was typical of periglacial environments, with extreme variation in surface temperature during summer resulting in frequent freeze and thaw cycles. The great majority of the soil temperature readings during the eleven month period was close to 0 °C, resulting in low values of freezing and thawing degree days. Both soils have poor thermal apparent diffusivity but values were higher for the soil from Fildes Peninsula. The different moisture regimes for the studied soils were attributed to soil texture, with the coarser soil presenting much lower water content during all seasons. Differences in water and ice contents may explain the contrasting patterns of freezing of the studied soils, being two-sided for the coarser soil and one-sided for the loamy soil. The temperature profile of the studied soils during the eleven month period indicates that the active layer reached a maximum depth of approximately 92 cm at Potter and 89 cm at Fildes. Longer data sets are needed for more conclusive analysis on active layer behaviour in this part of Antarctica.