Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Nd, Sr and Sm isotopic composition and model ages of rocks from the Anginskaya and Talanchanskaya formations, Lake Baikal

The paper presents data on the Nd-Sr systematics of magmatic rocks of the Khaidaiskii Series of the Anginskaya Formation in the Ol'khon region, western Baikal area, and rocks of the Talanchanskaya Formation on the eastern shore of Lake Baikal. Geochemical characteristics of these rocks are identical and testify to their arc provenance. At the same time, the epsilon(t)Nd of rocks of the Khaidaiskii Series in the Ol'khon area has positive values, and the data points of these rocks plot near the mantle succession line in the epsilon(t)Nd-87Sr/86Sr diagram, whereas the epsilon(t)Nd values of rocks of the Talanchanskaya Formation are negative, and the data points of these rocks fall into the fourth quadrant in the epsilon(t)Nd -87Sr/86Sr diagram. This testifies to a mantle genesis of the parental magmas of the Khaidaiskii Series and to the significant involvement of older crustal material in the generation of the melts that produced the orthorocks on the eastern shore of the lake. These conclusions are corroborated by model ages of magmatic rocks in the Ol'khon area (close to 1 Ga) and of rocks of the Talanchanskaya Formation (approximately 2 Ga). The comparison of our data with those obtained by other researchers on the Nd-Sr isotopic age of granulites of the Ol'khon Group and metavolcanics in various structural zones in the northern Baikal area suggests, with regard for the geochemistry of these rocks, the accretion of tectonic nappes that had different isotopic histories: some of them were derived from the mantle wedge and localized in the island arc itself (magmatic rocks of the Anginskaya Formation) or backarc spreading zone (mafic metamagmatic rocks of the Ol'khon Group), while others were partial melts derived, with the participation of crustal material, from sources of various age (metagraywackes in the backarc basin in the Ol'khon Group and the ensialic basement of the island arc in the Talanchanskaya Formation).

Miocene to Pleistocene sedimentation at ODP Site 133-823

More than 2000 turbidite, debris-flow, and slump deposits recovered at Site 823 record the history of the Queensland Trough since the middle Miocene and provide new insights about turbidites, debris flow, and slump deposits (herein termed gravity deposits). Changes in the composition and nature of gravity deposits through time can be related to tectonic movements, fluctuations in eustatic sea level, and sedimentological factors. The Queensland Trough is a long, relatively narrow, structural depression that formed as a result of Cretaceous to Tertiary rifting of the northeastern Australia continental margin. Thus, tectonics established the geometry of this marginal basin, and its steep slopes set the stage for repeated slope failures. Seismic data indicate that renewed faulting, subsidence, and associated tectonic tilting occurred during the early late Miocene (continuing into the early Pliocene), resulting in unstable slopes that were prone to slope failures and to generation of gravity deposits. Tectonic subsidence, together with a second-order eustatic highstand, resulted in platform drowning during the late Miocene. The composition of turbidites reflects their origin and provides insights about the nature of sedimentation on adjacent shelf areas. During relative highstands and times of platform drowning, planktonic foraminifers were reworked from slopes and/or drowned shelves and were redeposited in turbidites. During relative lowstands, quartz and other terrigenous sediment was shed into the basin. Quartzose turbidites and clay-rich hemipelagic muds also can record increased supply of terrigenous sediment from mainland Australia. Limestone fragments were eroded from carbonate platforms until the drowned platforms were buried under hemipelagic sediments following the late Miocene drowning event. Bioclastic grains and neritic foraminifers were reworked from neritic shelves during relative lowstands. During the late Pliocene (2.6 Ma), the increased abundance of bioclasts and quartz in turbidites signaled the shallowing and rejuvenation of the northeastern Australia continental shelf. However, a one-for-one relationship cannot be recognized between eustatic sea-level fluctuations and any single sedimentologic parameter. Perhaps, tectonism and sedimentological factors along the Queensland Trough played an equally important role in generating gravity deposits. Turbidites and other gravity deposits (such as those at Site 823) do not necessarily represent submarine fan deposits, particularly if they are composed of hemipelagic sediments reworked from drowned platforms and slopes. When shelves are drowned and terrigenous sediment is not directly supplied by nearby rivers/point sources, muddy terrigenous sediments blanket the entire slope and basin, rather than forming localized fans. Slope failures affect the entire slope, rather than localized submarine canyons. Slopes may become destabilized as a result of tectonic activity, inherent sediment weaknesses, and/or during relative sea-level lowstands. For this reason, sediment deposits in this setting reflect tectonic and eustatic events that caused slope instabilities, rather than migration of different submarine fan facies.

Radiocarbon ages and stable isotope measurements on sediment cores of the subarctic Pacific and its marginal seas

Under modern conditions only North Pacific Intermediate Water is formed in the northwest Pacific Ocean. This situation might have changed in the past. Recent studies with general circulation models indicate a switch to deep-water formation in the northwest Pacific during Heinrich Stadial 1 (17.5-15.0 ka) of the last glacial termination. Reconstructions of past ventilation changes based on paleoceanographic proxy records are still insufficient to test whether a deglacial mode of deep-water formation in the North Pacific Ocean existed. Here we present deglacial ventilation records based on radiocarbon-derived ventilation ages in combination with epibenthic stable carbon isotopes from the northwest Pacific including the Okhotsk Sea and Bering Sea, the two potential source regions for past North Pacific ventilation changes. Evidence for most rigorous ventilation of the intermediate-depth North Pacific occurred during Heinrich Stadial 1 and the Younger Dryas, simultaneous to significant reductions in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Concurrent changes in d13C and ventilation ages point to the Okhotsk Sea as driver of millennial-scale changes in North Pacific Intermediate Water ventilation during the last deglaciation. Our records additionally indicate that changes in the d13C intermediate-water (700-1750 m water depth) signature and radiocarbon-derived ventilation ages are in antiphase to those of the deep North Pacific Ocean (>2100 m water depth) during the last glacial termination. Thus, intermediate- and deep-water masses of the northwest Pacific have a differing ventilation history during the last deglaciation.

Composition and accumulation rates of bottom sediments from Core ASV16-1372, Voring Plateau

Based on sedimentological, mineralogical, geochemical, and micropaleontological data on comprehensively investigated Core ASV16-1372, Late Pleistocene - Holocene sedimentation history is reconstructed for the Voring marginal plateau (continental margin of the Norwegian Sea). An age model constructed is based on correlation with several adjacent cores, for which AMS radiocarbon datings are available. Lithostratigraphic correlation made it possible to compare stratigraphic division of Core ASV16-1372 with other cores sampled on the Voring Plateau and the shelf and continental slope off Central Norway. It is concluded that compositional and structural features of bottom sediments are correlated with paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic changes, variations in provenances, as well as agents and pathways of sedimentary material transport.

Water level time series and sediment grain size model

The environment of ebb-tidal deltas between barrier island systems is characterized by a complex morphology with ebb- and flood-dominated channels, shoals and swash bars connecting the ebb-tidal delta platform to the adjacent island. These morphological features reveal characteristic surface sediment grain-size distributions and are subject to a continuous adaptation to the prevailing hydrodynamic forces. The mixed-energy tidal inlet Otzumer Balje between the East Frisian barrier islands of Langeoog and Spiekeroog in the southern North Sea has been chosen here as a model study area for the identification of relevant hydrodynamic drivers of morphology and sedimentology. We compare the effect of high-energy, wave-dominated storm conditions to mid-term, tide-dominated fair-weather conditions on tidal inlet morphology and sedimentology with a process-based numerical model. A multi-fractional approach with five grain-size fractions between 150 and 450 µm allows for the simulation of corresponding surface sediment grain-size distributions. Net sediment fluxes for distinct conditions are identified: during storm conditions, bed load sediment transport is generally onshore directed on the shallower ebb-tidal delta shoals, whereas fine-grained suspended sediment bypasses the tidal inlet by wave-driven currents. During fair weather the sediment transport mainly focuses on the inlet throat and the marginal flood channels. We show how the observed sediment grain-size distribution and the morphological response at mixed-energy tidal inlets are the result of both wave-dominated less frequent storm conditions and mid-term, tide-dominant fair-weather conditions.