Debris flow magnitudes: a global catalog

The episodic occurrence of debris flow events in response to stochastic precipitation and wildfire events makes hazard prediction challenging. Previous work has shown that frequency-magnitude distributions of non-fire-related debris flows follow a power law, but less is known about the distribution of post-fire debris flows. As a first step in parameterizing hazard models, we use frequency-magnitude distributions and cumulative distribution functions to compare volumes of post-fire debris flows to non-fire-related debris flows. Due to the large number of events required to parameterize frequency-magnitude distributions, and the relatively small number of post-fire event magnitudes recorded in the literature, we collected data on 73 recent post-fire events in the field. The resulting catalog of 988 debris flow events is presented as an appendix to this article. We found that the empirical cumulative distribution function of post-fire debris flow volumes is composed of smaller events than that of non-fire-related debris flows. In addition, the slope of the frequency-magnitude distribution of post-fire debris flows is steeper than that of non-fire-related debris flows, evidence that differences in the post-fire environment tend to produce a higher proportion of small events. We propose two possible explanations: 1) post-fire events occur on shorter return intervals than debris flows in similar basins that do not experience fire, causing their distribution to shift toward smaller events due to limitations in sediment supply, or 2) fire causes changes in resisting and driving forces on a package of sediment, such that a smaller perturbation of the system is required in order for a debris flow to occur, resulting in smaller event volumes.

Dissolved organic carbon concentrations, amino sugar concentrations and highly significantly correlating FT-ICR mass peak magnitudes obtained from solid phase extracted marine dissolved organic matter during POLARSTERN cruise ANT-XXV/1

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) was extracted with solid phase extraction (SPE) from 137 water samples from different climate zones and different depths along an Eastern Atlantic Ocean transect. The extracts were analyzed with Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) with electrospray ionization (ESI). D14C analyses were performed on subsamples of the SPE-DOM. In addition, the amount of dissolved organic carbon was determined for all water and SPE-DOM samples as well as the yield of amino sugars for selected samples. Linear correlations were observed between the magnitudes of 43% of the FT-ICR mass peaks and the extract D14C values. Decreasing SPE-DOM D14C values went along with a shift in the molecular composition to higher average masses (m/z) and lower hydrogen/carbon (H/C) ratios. The correlation was used to model the SPE-DOM D14C distribution for all 137 samples. Based on single mass peaks a degradation index was developed to compare the degradation state of marine SPE-DOM samples analyzed with FT-ICR MS. A correlation between D14C, degradation index, DOC values and amino sugar yield supports that SPE-DOM analyzed with FT-ICR MS reflects trends of bulk DOM. A relative mass peak magnitude ratio was used to compare aged SPE-DOM and fresh SPE-DOM regarding single mass peaks. The magnitude ratios show a continuum of different reactivities for the single compounds. Only few of the compounds present in the FT-ICR mass spectra are expected to be highly degraded in the oldest water masses of the Pacific Ocean. All other compounds should persist partly thermohaline circulation. Prokaryotic (bacterial) production, transformation and accumulation of this very stable DOM occurs probably primarily in the upper ocean. This DOM is an important contribution to very old DOM, showing that production and degradation are dynamic processes.

(Table 1) Description of structures in cores at DSDP Holes 59-451, 59-448A and 59-447A

Fifteen lengths of Leg 59 cores (primarily from Hole 451 as well as from Holes 447A and 448A) exhibiting macroscopic faults were selected by Dr. R. B. Scott (Co-Chief Scientist, Leg 59) to help us initiate this petrofabric analysis. We proposed to (1) determine what dynamically useful deformation features might be associated with the faults, and (2) infer from these features as much as possible about the physical environment of the deformation (effective pressure, differential stress, temperature, and strain rate), the orientation and relatively magnitudes of the principal stresses at the time of deformation, and the degree of induration of the rocks at the time of deformation. The cores, mainly from Hole 451, had been slabbed on board ship with respect to the trace of bedding so that each cut surface contains the true bedding dip-direction. In general, the cores from Hole 451 are largely calcareous, lithic and vitric, brecciated tuffs, whereas those from Holes 447A and 448A are basalts or basalt breccias.

Anelastic strain recovery and elastic properties of ODP Leg 123 oceanic basalt samples

A knowledge of rock stress is fundamental for improving our understanding of oceanic crustal mechanisms and lithospheric dynamic processes. However, direct measurements of stress in the deep oceans, and in particular stress magnitudes, have proved to be technically difficult. Anelastic strain recovery measurements were conducted on 15 basalt core samples from Sites 765 and 766 during Leg 123. Three sets of experiments were performed: anelastic strain recovery monitoring, dynamic elastic property measurements, and thermal azimuthal anisotropy observations. In addition, a range of other tests and observations were recorded to characterize each of the samples. One common feature of the experimental results and observations is that apparently no consistent orientation trend exists, either between the different measurements on each core sample or between the same sets of measurements on the various core samples. However, some evidence of correspondence between velocity anisotropy and anelastic strain recovery exists, but this is not consistent for all the core samples investigated. Thermal azimuthal anisotropy observations, although showing no conclusive correlations with the other results, were of significant interest in that they clearly exhibited anisotropic behavior. The apparent reproducibility of this behavior may point toward the possibility of rocks that retain a "memory" of their stress history, which could be exploited to derive stress orientations from archived core. Anelastic strain recovery is a relatively new technique. Because use of the method has extended to a wider range of rock types, the literature has begun to include examples of rocks that contracted with time. Strong circumstantial evidence exists to suggest that core-sample contractions result from the slow diffusion of pore fluids from a preexisting microcrack structure that permits the rock to deflate at a greater rate than the expansion caused by anelastic strain recovery. Both expansions and contractions of the Leg 123 cores were observed. The basalt cores have clearly been intersected by an abundance of preexisting fractures, some of which pass right through the samples, but many are intercepted or terminate within the rock matrix. Thus, the behavior of the core samples will be influenced not only by the properties of the rock matrix between the fractures, but also by how these macro- and micro-scale fractures mutually interact. The strain-recovery curves recorded during Leg 123 for each of the 15 basalt core samples may reflect the result of two competing time dependent processes: anelastic strain recovery and pore pressure recovery. Were these the only two processes to influence the gauge responses, then one might expect that given the additional information required, established theoretical models might be used to determine consistent stress orientations and reliable stress magnitudes. However, superimposed upon these competing processes is their respective interaction with the preexisting fractures that intersect each core. Evidence from our experiments and observations suggests that these fractures have a dominating influence on the characteristics of the recovery curves and that their effects are complex.

Turbidite recognition and radiocarbon ages of marine sediment cores along the continental margin of Chile

Much progress has been made in estimating recurrence intervals of great and giant subduction earthquakes using terrestrial, lacustrine, and marine paleoseismic archives. Recent detailed records suggest these earthquakes may have variable recurrence periods and magnitudes forming supercycles. Understanding seismic supercycles requires long paleoseismic archives that record timing and magnitude of such events. Turbidite paleoseismic archives may potentially extend past earthquake records to the Pleistocene and can thus complement commonly shorter-term terrestrial archives. However, in order to unambiguously establish recurring seismicity as a trigger mechanism for turbidity currents, synchronous deposition of turbidites in widely spaced, isolated depocenters has to be ascertained. Furthermore, characteristics that predispose a seismically active continental margin to turbidite paleoseismology and the correct sample site selection have to be taken into account. Here we analyze 8 marine sediment cores along 950 km of the Chile margin to test for the feasibility of compiling detailed and continuous paleoseismic records based on turbidites. Our results suggest that the deposition of areally widespread, synchronous turbidites triggered by seismicity is largely controlled by sediment supply and, hence, the climatic and geomorphic conditions of the adjacent subaerial setting. The feasibility of compiling a turbidite paleoseismic record depends on the delicate balance between sufficient sediment supply providing material to fail frequently during seismic shaking and sufficiently low sedimentation rates to allow for coeval accumulation of planktonic foraminifera for high-resolution radiocarbon dating. We conclude that offshore northern central Chile (29-32.5°S) Holocene turbidite paleoseismology is not feasible, because sediment supply from the semi-arid mainland is low and almost no Holocene turbidity-current deposits are found in the cores. In contrast, in the humid region between 36 and 38°S frequent Holocene turbidite deposition may generally correspond to paleoseismic events. However, high terrigenous sedimentation rates prevent high-resolution radiocarbon dating. The climatic transition region between 32.5 and 36°S appears to be best suited for turbidite paleoseismology.

A reconstruction of atmospheric carbon dioxide and its stable carbon isotopic composition from the penultimate glacial maximum to the glacial inception

The reconstruction of the stable carbon isotope evolution in atmospheric CO2 (d13Catm ), as archived in Antarctic ice cores, bears the potential to disentangle the contributions of the different carbon cycle fluxes causing past CO2 variations. Here we present a new record of d13Catm before, during and after the Marine Isotope Stage 5.5 (155 000 to 105 000 years BP). The record was derived with a well established sublimation method using ice from the EPICA Dome C (EDC) and the Talos Dome ice cores in East Antarctica. We find a 0.4 permil shift to heavier values between the mean d13Catm level in the Penultimate (~ 140 000 years BP) and Last Glacial Maximum (~ 22 000 years BP), which can be explained by either (i) changes in the isotopic composition or (ii) intensity of the carbon input fluxes to the combined ocean/atmosphere carbon reservoir or (iii) by long-term peat buildup. Our isotopic data suggest that the carbon cycle evolution along Termination II and the subsequent interglacial was controlled by essentially the same processes as during the last 24 000 years, but with different phasing and magnitudes. Furthermore, a 5000 years lag in the CO2 decline relative to EDC temperatures is confirmed during the glacial inception at the end of MIS 5.5 (120 000 years BP). Based on our isotopic data this lag can be explained by terrestrial carbon release and carbonate compensation.

Flow separation and roughness lengths over large bedforms in a tidal environment

This study characterises the shape of the flow separation zone (FSZ) and wake region over large asymmetric bedforms under tidal flow conditions. High resolution bathymetry, flow velocity and turbulence data were measured along two parallel transects in a tidal channel covered with bedforms. The field data are used to verify the applicability of a numerical model for a systematic study using the Delft3D modelling system and test the model sensitivity to roughness length. Three experiments are then conducted to investigate how the FSZ size and wake extent vary depending on tidally-varying flow conditions, water levels and bathymetry. During the ebb, a large FSZ occurs over the steep lee side of each bedform. During the flood, no flow separation develops over the bedforms having a flat crest; however, a small FSZ is observed over the steepest part of the crest of some bedforms, where the slope is locally up to 15°. Over a given bedform morphology and constant water levels, no FSZ occurs for velocity magnitudes smaller than 0.1 m s**-1; as the flow accelerates, the FSZ reaches a stable size for velocity magnitudes greater than 0.4 m s**-1. The shape of the FSZ is not influenced by changes in water levels. On the other hand, variations in bed morphology, as recorded from the high-resolution bathymetry collected during the tidal cycle, influence the size and position of the FSZ: a FSZ develops only when the maximum lee side slope over a horizontal distance of 5 m is greater than 10°. The height and length of the wake region are related to the length of the FSZ. The total roughness along the transect lines is an order of magnitude larger during the ebb than during the flood due to flow direction in relation to bedform asymmetry: during the ebb, roughness is created by the large bedforms because a FSZ and wake develops over the steep lee side. The results add to the understanding of hydrodynamics of natural bedforms in a tidal environment and may be used to better parameterise small-scale processes in large-scale studies.

Climate proxies in sediment core MD95-2010

High-amplitude, rapid climate fluctuations are common features of glacial times. The prominent changes in air temperature recorded in the Greenland ice cores (Dansgaard et al., 1993, doi:10.1038/339532a0; Grootes et al., 1993 doi:10.1038/366552a0) are coherent with shifts in the magnitude of the northward heat flux carried by the North Atlantic surface ocean (Bond et al., 1993, doi:10.1038/365143a0; Bond and Lotti, 1995, doi:10.1126/science.267.5200.1005); changes in the ocean's thermohaline circulation are a key component in many explanations of this climate flickering (Broecker, 1997, doi:10.1126/science.278.5343.1582). Here we use stable-isotope and other sedimentological data to reveal specific oceanic reorganizations during these rapid climate-change events. Deep water was generated more or less continuously in the Nordic Seas during the latter part of the last glacial period (60 to 10 thousand years ago), but by two different mechanisms. The deep-water formation occurred by convection in the open ocean during warmer periods (interstadials). But during colder phases (stadials), a freshening of the surface ocean reduced or stopped open-ocean convection, and deep-water formation was instead driven by brine-release during sea-ice freezing. These shifting magnitudes and modes nested within the overall continuity of deep-water formation were probably important for the structuring and rapidity of the prevailing climate changes.

Hydrocarbon concentrations from pressurized cores in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Two newly developed coring devices, the Multi-Autoclave-Corer and the Dynamic Autoclave Piston Corer were deployed in shallow gas hydrate-bearing sediments in the northern Gulf of Mexico during research cruise SO174 (Oct-Nov 2003). For the first time, they enable the retrieval of near-surface sediment cores under ambient pressure. This enables the determination of in situ methane concentrations and amounts of gas hydrate in sediment depths where bottom water temperature and pressure changes most strongly influence gas/hydrate relationships. At seep sites of GC185 (Bush Hill) and the newly discovered sites at GC415, we determined the volume of low-weight hydrocarbons (C1 through C5) from nine pressurized cores via controlled degassing. The resulting in situ methane concentrations vary by two orders of magnitudes between 0.031 and 0.985 mol kg**-1 pore water below the zone of sulfate depletion. This includes dissolved, free, and hydrate-bound CH4. Combined with results from conventional cores, this establishes a variability of methane concentrations in close proximity to seep sites of five orders of magnitude. In total four out of nine pressure cores had CH4 concentrations above equilibrium with gas hydrates. Two of them contain gas hydrate volumes of 15% (GC185) and 18% (GC415) of pore space. The measurements prove that the highest methane concentrations are not necessarily related to the highest advection rates. Brine advection inhibits gas hydrate stability a few centimeters below the sediment surface at the depth of anaerobic oxidation of methane and thus inhibits the storage of enhanced methane volumes. Here, computerized tomography (CT) of the pressure cores detected small amounts of free gas. This finding has major implications for methane distribution, possible consumption, and escape into the bottom water in fluid flow systems related to halokinesis.

Timing of the most recent Neoglacial advance and retreat in Potter Cove, Antarctic Peninsula

The timing of the most recent Neoglacial advance in the Antarctic Peninsula is important for establishing global climate teleconnections and providing important post-glacial rebound corrections to gravity-based satellite measurements of ice loss. However, obtaining accurate ages from terrestrial geomorphic and sedimentary indicators of the most recent Neoglacial advance in Antarctica has been hampered by the lack of historical records and the difficulty of dating materials in Antarctica. Here we use a new approach to dating flights of raised beaches in the South Shetland Islands of the northern Antarctic Peninsula to bracket the age of a Neoglacial advance that occurred between 1500 and 1700 AD, broadly synchronous with compilations for the timing of the Little Ice Age in the northern hemisphere. Our approach is based on optically stimulated luminescence of the underside of buried cobbles to obtain the age of beaches previously shown to have been deposited immediately inside and outside the moraines of the most recent Neoglacial advance. In addition, these beaches mark the timing of an apparent change in the rate of isostatic rebound thought to be in response to the same glacial advance within the South Shetland Islands. We use a Maxwell viscoelastic model of glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA) to determine whether the rates of uplift calculated from the raised beaches are realistic given the limited constraints on the ice advance during this most recent Neoglacial advance. Our rebound model suggests that the subsequent melting of an additional 16-22% increase in the volume of ice within the South Shetland Islands would result in a subsequent uplift rate of 12.5 mm/yr that lasted until 1840 AD resulting in a cumulative uplift of 2.5 m. This uplift rate and magnitude are in close agreement with observed rates and magnitudes calculated from the raised beaches since the most recent Neoglacial advance along the South Shetland Islands and falls within the range of uplift rates from similar settings such as Alaska.

(Table 1) Climate characteristics of the four North American Tundra Experiment (ITEX) sites

Climate warming is expected to differentially affect CO2 exchange of the diverse ecosystems in the Arctic. Quantifying responses of CO2 exchange to warming in these ecosystems will require coordinated experimentation using standard temperature manipulations and measurements. Here, we used the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) standard warming treatment to determine CO2 flux responses to growing-season warming for ecosystems spanning natural temperature and moisture ranges across the Arctic biome. We used the four North American Arctic ITEX sites (Toolik Lake, Atqasuk, and Barrow [USA] and Alexandra Fiord [Canada]) that span 10° of latitude. At each site, we investigated the CO2 responses to warming in both dry and wet or moist ecosystems. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE), ecosystem respiration (ER), and gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP) were assessed using chamber techniques conducted over 24-h periods sampled regularly throughout the summers of two years at all sites. At Toolik Lake, warming increased net CO2 losses in both moist and dry ecosystems. In contrast, at Atqasuk and Barrow, warming increased net CO2 uptake in wet ecosystems but increased losses from dry ecosystems. At Alexandra Fiord, warming improved net carbon uptake in the moist ecosystem in both years, but in the wet and dry ecosystems uptake increased in one year and decreased the other. Warming generally increased ER, with the largest increases in dry ecosystems. In wet ecosystems, high soil moisture limited increases in respiration relative to increases in photosynthesis. Warming generally increased GEP, with the notable exception of the Toolik Lake moist ecosystem, where warming unexpectedly decreased GEP >25%. Overall, the respiration response determined the effect of warming on ecosystem CO2 balance. Our results provide the first multiple-site comparison of arctic tundra CO2 flux responses to standard warming treatments across a large climate gradient. These results indicate that (1) dry tundra may be initially the most responsive ecosystems to climate warming by virtue of strong increases in ER, (2) moist and wet tundra responses are dampened by higher water tables and soil water contents, and (3) both GEP and ER are responsive to climate warming, but the magnitudes and directions are ecosystem-dependent.

Isotope ratios, IRD and planktonic foraminifera content during marine isotope stage 5 of sediment cores MD99-2303, MD99-2304 and MD95-2010

Variable climatic and oceanographic conditions characterized the last interglacial at high northern latitudes, probably related to changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The magnitudes of these changes are comparable to the Holocene variability, and were thus significantly subdued compared to glacial climate changes. A thermal optimum occurred during the early part of the interglacial, followed by a period of reduced Atlantic inflow to the northernmost Nordic Seas. Subsequently, a new period with increased strength of the AMOC occurred. Significant amounts of Ice-Rafted Debris (IRD) were deposited in the northernmost Nordic Seas before any major change of the global ice volume. This implies an early onset of local ice sheet growth, probably the result of enhanced inflow of Atlantic water to the northernmost Nordic Seas contemporary with a Northern Hemisphere summer insolation minimum. Contrasting sea-land conditions provided large moisture fluxes towards land, giving rise to rapid, early glacial growth. Throughout the glacial part of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5, millennial-scale cold events occurred along the axis of the warm water transport, from the subtropics all the way to the northernmost Nordic Seas. Correlation of IRD events from sites in the Fram Strait, on the Voring Plateau, and in the North Atlantic provides evidence that the major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets at times responded coherently to the same forcing. The widespread distribution of these events highlights the importance of the oceanic influence on the regional climate system.

(Table 2) Age determination of Southern Ocean sediments

The silicic acid leakage hypothesis (SALH) predicts that during glacial periods excess silicic acid was transported from the Southern Ocean to lower latitudes, which favored diatom production over coccolithophorid production and caused a drawdown of atmospheric CO2. Downcore records of 230Th-normalized opal (biogenic silica) fluxes from 31 cores in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean were used to compare diatom productivity during the last glacial period to that of the Holocene and to examine the evidence for increased glacial Si export to the tropics. Average glacial opal fluxes south of the modern Antarctic Polar Front (APF) were less than during the Holocene, while average glacial opal fluxes north of the APF were greater than during the Holocene. However, the magnitude of the increase north of the APF was not enough to offset decreased fluxes to the south, resulting in a decrease in opal burial in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean during the last glacial period, equivalent to approximately 15 Gt opal/ka1. This is consistent with the work of Chase et al. (2003, doi:10.1016/S0967-0645(02)00595-7), and satisfies the primary requirement of the SALH, assuming that the upwelled supply of Si was approximately equivalent during the Holocene and the glacial period. However, previous results from the equatorial oceans are inconsistent with the other predictions of the SALH, namely that either the Corg:CaCO3 ratio or the rate of opal burial should have increased during glacial periods. We compare the magnitudes of changes in the Southern Ocean and the tropics and suggest that Si escaping the glacial Southern Ocean must have had an alternate destination, possibly the continental margins. There is currently insufficient data to test this hypothesis, but the existence of this sink and its potential impact on glacial pCO2 remain interesting topics for future study.

Datasets for the graphs of the paper (Fig. 2 to Fig. 7)

Investigating the relationship between factors (climate change, atmospheric CO2 concentrations enrichment, and vegetation structure) and hydrological processes is important for understanding and predicting the interaction between the hydrosphere and biosphere. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change, rising CO2, and vegetation structure on hydrological processes in China at the end of the 21st century. Seven simulations were implemented using the assemblage of the IPCC climate and CO2 concentration scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1. Analysis results suggest that (1) climate change will have increasing effects on runoff evapotranspiration (ET), transpiration (T), and transpiration ratio (transpiration/evapotranspiration, T/E) in most hydrological regions of China except in the southernmost regions; (2) elevated CO2 concentrations will have increasing effects on runoff at the national scale, but at the hydrological region scale, the physiology effects induced by elevated CO2 concentration will depend on the vegetation types, climate conditions, and geographical background information with noticeable decreasing effects shown in the arid Inland region of China; (3) leaf area index (LAI) compensation effect and stomatal closure effect are the dominant factors on runoff in the arid Inland region and southern moist hydrological regions, respectively; (4) the magnitudes of climate change (especially the changing precipitation pattern) effects on the water cycle are much larger than those of the elevated CO2 concentration effects; however, increasing CO2 concentration will be one of the most important modifiers to the water cycle; (5) the water resource condition will be improved in northern China but depressed in southernmost China under the IPCC climate change scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1.

Expanded GHOST database

In this study we review a global set of alkenone- and foraminiferal Mg/Ca-derived sea surface temperatures (SST) records from the Holocene and compare them with a suite of published Eemian SST records based on the same approach. For the Holocene, the alkenone SST records belong to the actualized GHOST database (Kim, J.-H., Schneider R.R., 2004). The actualized GHOST database not only confirms the SST changes previously described but also documents the Holocene temperature evolution in new oceanic regions such as the Northwestern Atlantic, the eastern equatorial Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. A comparison of Holocene SST records stemming from the two commonly applied paleothermometry methods reveals contrasting - sometimes divergent - SST evolution, particularly at low latitudes where SST records are abundant enough to infer systematic discrepancies at a regional scale. Opposite SST trends at particular locations could be explained by out-of-phase trends in seasonal insolation during the Holocene. This hypothesis assumes that a strong contrast in the ecological responses of coccolithophores and planktonic foraminifera to winter and summer oceanographic conditions is the ultimate reason for seasonal differences in the origin of the temperature signal provided by these organisms. As a simple test for this hypothesis, Eemian SST records are considered because the Holocene and Eemian time periods experienced comparable changes in orbital configurations, but had a higher magnitude in insolation variance during the Eemian. For several regions, SST changes during both interglacials were of a similar sign, but with higher magnitudes during the Eemian as compared to the Holocene. This observation suggests that the ecological mechanism shaping SST trends during the Holocene was comparable during the penultimate interglacial period. Although this "ecology hypothesis" fails to explain all of the available results, we argue that any other mechanism would fail to satisfactorily explain the observed SST discrepancies among proxies.