Enhanced seasonal CO_2 exchange caused by amplified plant productivity in northern ecosystems, link to model results

Atmospheric monitoring of high northern latitudes (> 40°N) has shown an enhanced seasonal cycle of carbon dioxide (CO2) since the 1960s but the underlying mechanisms are not yet fully understood. The much stronger increase in high latitudes compared to low ones suggests that northern ecosystems are experiencing large changes in vegetation and carbon cycle dynamics. Here we show that the latitudinal gradient of the increasing CO2 amplitude is mainly driven by positive trends in photosynthetic carbon uptake caused by recent climate change and mediated by changing vegetation cover in northern ecosystems. Our results emphasize the importance of climate-vegetation-carbon cycle feedbacks at high latitudes, and indicate that during the last decades photosynthetic carbon uptake has reacted much more strongly to warming than carbon release processes.

Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

Gotland Deep (Baltic Sea) independent age model based on Palaeomagnetic Secular Variation (PSV) and lead (Pb) deposition profiles

Dating of sediment cores from the Baltic Sea has proven to be difficult due to uncertainties surrounding the 14C reservoir age and a scarcity of macrofossils suitable for dating. Here we present the results of multiple dating methods carried out on cores in the Gotland Deep area of the Baltic Sea. Particular emphasis is placed on the Littorina stage (8 ka ago to the present) of the Baltic Sea and possible changes in the 14C reservoir age of our dated samples. Three geochronological methods are used. Firstly, palaeomagnetic secular variations (PSV) are reconstructed, whereby ages are transferred to PSV features through comparison with varved lake sediment based PSV records. Secondly, lead (Pb) content and stable isotope analysis are used to identify past peaks in anthropogenic atmospheric Pb pollution. Lastly, 14C determinations were carried out on benthic foraminifera (Elphidium spec.) samples from the brackish Littorina stage of the Baltic Sea. Determinations carried out on smaller samples (as low as 4 µg C) employed an experimental, state-of-the-art method involving the direct measurement of CO2 from samples by a gas ion source without the need for a graphitisation step - the first time this method has been performed on foraminifera in an applied study. The PSV chronology, based on the uppermost Littorina stage sediments, produced ten age constraints between 6.29 and 1.29 cal ka BP, and the Pb depositional analysis produced two age constraints associated with the Medieval pollution peak. Analysis of PSV data shows that adequate directional data can be derived from both the present Littorina saline phase muds and Baltic Ice Lake stage varved glacial sediments. Ferrimagnetic iron sulphides, most likely authigenic greigite (Fe3S4), present in the intermediate Ancylus Lake freshwater stage sediments acquire a gyroremanent magnetisation during static alternating field (AF) demagnetisation, preventing the identification of a primary natural remanent magnetisation for these sediments. An inferred marine reservoir age offset (deltaR) is calculated by comparing the foraminifera 14C determinations to a PSV & Pb age model. This deltaR is found to trend towards younger values upwards in the core, possibly due to a gradual change in hydrographic conditions brought about by a reduction in marine water exchange from the open sea due to continued isostatic rebound.

Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and buffer factor from model run 2012-2100, with links to model results

The Southern Ocean is a key region for global carbon uptake and is characterised by a strong seasonality with the annual CO2 uptake being mediated by biological carbon draw-down in summer. Here, we show that the contribution of biology to CO2 uptake will become even more important until 2100. This is the case even if biological production remains unaltered and can be explained by the decreasing buffer capacity of the ocean as its carbon content increases. The same amount of biological carbon draw-down leads to a more than twice as large reduction in CO2 (aq) concentration and hence to a larger CO2 gradient between ocean and atmosphere that drives the gas-exchange. While the winter uptake south of 44°S changes little, the summer uptake increases largely and is responsible for the annual mean response. The combination of decreasing buffer capacity and strong seasonality of biological carbon draw-down introduces a strong and increasing seasonality in the anthropogenic carbon uptake.

Cation exchange capacity and water content of ODP sites from Nankai

Pore fluid chlorinity lower than seawater is often observed in accretionary wedges and one of the possible causes of pore water freshening is the smectite to illite reaction. This reaction occurs during diagenesis in the 80-150°C temperature range. Low chlorinity anomalies observed at the toe of accretionary wedges have thus been interpreted as evidence for lateral fluid migration from inner parts of the wedge and the seismogenic zone. However, temperature conditions in Nankai Trough are locally high enough for the smectite to illite transition to occur in situ. Cation exchange capacity is here used as a proxy for smectite content in the sediment and the amount of interlayer water released during the smectite to illite reaction represents in average 12 water molecules per cation charge. Water and chloride budget calculations show that there is enough smectite to explain the chlorinity anomalies by in situ reactions. The shape of the pore fluid chlorinity profiles can be explained if compaction is also taken into account in the model. Lateral flow is not needed. This argument, based solely on chloride concentration, does not imply that lateral flow is absent. However, previous estimations of lateral fluid fluxes, and of the duration of transient flow events along the de.collement, should be reconsidered.

Simulated Bromoform emission and concentration using the ocean biogeochemistry model MPIOM/HAMOCC forced by 6-hourly NCEP data

Bromoform (CHBr3) is one important precursor of atmospheric reactive bromine species that are involved in ozone depletion in the troposphere and stratosphere. In the open ocean bromoform production is linked to phytoplankton that contains the enzyme bromoperoxidase. Coastal sources of bromoform are higher than open ocean sources. However, open ocean emissions are important because the transfer of tracers into higher altitude in the air, i.e. into the ozone layer, strongly depends on the location of emissions. For example, emissions in the tropics are more rapidly transported into the upper atmosphere than emissions from higher latitudes. Global spatio-temporal features of bromoform emissions are poorly constrained. Here, a global three-dimensional ocean biogeochemistry model (MPIOM-HAMOCC) is used to simulate bromoform cycling in the ocean and emissions into the atmosphere using recently published data of global atmospheric concentrations (Ziska et al., 2013) as upper boundary conditions. Our simulated surface concentrations of CHBr3 match the observations well. Simulated global annual emissions based on monthly mean model output are lower than previous estimates, including the estimate by Ziska et al. (2013), because the gas exchange reverses when less bromoform is produced in non-blooming seasons. This is the case for higher latitudes, i.e. the polar regions and northern North Atlantic. Further model experiments show that future model studies may need to distinguish different bromoform-producing phytoplankton species and reveal that the transport of CHBr3 from the coast considerably alters open ocean bromoform concentrations, in particular in the northern sub-polar and polar regions.

Regional ocean model for the Mediterranean, links to model files

A regional ocean general circulation model of the Mediterranean is used to study the climate of the Last Glacial Maximum. The atmospheric forcing for these simulations has been derived from simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model, which in turn was forced with surface conditions from a coarse resolution earth system model. The model is successful in reproducing the general patterns of reconstructed sea surface temperature anomalies with the strongest cooling in summer in the northwestern Mediterranean and weak cooling in the Levantine, although the model underestimates the extent of the summer cooling in the western Mediterranean. However, there is a strong vertical gradient associated with this pattern of summer cooling, which makes the comparison with reconstructions complicated. The exchange with the Atlantic is decreased to roughly one half of its present value, which can be explained by the shallower Strait of Gibraltar as a consequence of lower global sea level. This reduced exchange causes a strong increase of salinity in the Mediterranean in spite of reduced net evaporation.

Late glacial and deglacial age model and biomarker analyses of sediment core MSM05/5_712-2 from the western continental slope of Svalbard

The transition from last glacial to deglacial and subsequently to modern interglacial climate conditions was accompanied by abrupt shifts in the palaeoceanographic setting in the subpolar North Atlantic. Knowledge about the role that sea ice coverage played during these rapid climate reversals is limited since most marine sediment cores from the higher latitudes provide only a coarse temporal resolution and often poorly preserved microfossils. Here we present a highly resolved reconstruction of sea ice conditions that characterised the eastern Fram Strait - a key area for water mass exchange between the Arctic Ocean and the North Atlantic - for the past 30 ka BP. This reconstruction is based on the distribution of the sea ice biomarker IP25 and phytoplankton derived biomarkers in a sediment core from the continental slope of western Svalbard. During the late glacial (30 ka to 19 ka BP), recurrent advances and retreats of sea ice characterised the study area and point to a hitherto less considered oceanic (and/or atmospheric) variability. A long-lasting perennial sea ice coverage in eastern Fram Strait persisted only at the very end of the Last Glacial Maximum (i.e. from 19.2 to 17.6 ka BP) and was abruptly reduced at the onset of Heinrich Event 1 - coincident with or possibly even inducing the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Further maximum sea ice conditions prevailed during the Younger Dryas cooling event and support the assumption of an AMOC reduction due to increased formation and export of Arctic sea ice through Fram Strait. A significant retreat of sea ice and sea surface warming are observed for the Early Holocene.

Age model and sedimentation rate of core M174/KL11 (Table 1)

Stable isotope and faunal records from the central Red Sea show high-amplitude oscillations for the past 380,000 years. Positive delta18O anomalies indicate periods of significant salt buildup during periods of lowered sea level when water mass exchange with the Arabian Sea was reduced due to a reduced geometry of the Bab el Mandeb Strait. Salinities as high as 53 per mil and 55 per mil are inferred from pteropod and benthic foraminifera delta18O, respectively, for the last glacial maximum. During this period all planktonic foraminifera vanished from this part of the Red Sea. Environmental conditions improved rapidly after 13 ka as salinities decreased due to rising sea level. The foraminiferal fauna started to reappear and was fully reestablished between 9 ka and 8 ka. Spectral analysis of the planktonic delta18O record documents highest variance in the orbital eccentricity, obliquity, and precession bands, indicating a dominant influence of climatically - driven sea level change on environmental conditions in the Red Sea. Variance in the precession band is enhanced compared to the global mean marine climate record (SPECMAP), suggesting an additional influence of the Indian monsoon system on Red Sea climates.