3 resultados para Logic of the plausible

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus from Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1) and different temperatures (1, 5, and 8 °C) to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. Each of the 12 scenarios was run for 7 days, and a significant interaction between temperature and pH on growth was detected. By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other, and therefore no effect on the growth rates was found. However, the growth rates increased with elevated temperatures by 20-50% depending on the strain. In addition, a general negative effect of increasing acidification on growth was observed. At pH 7.7 and 7.4, the growth response varied considerably among strains. However, a more uniform response was detected at pH 7.1 with most of the strains exhibiting reduced growth rates by 20-37% compared to pH 8.0. It should be emphasized that a significant interaction between temperature and pH was found, meaning that the combination of the two parameters affected growth differently than when considering one at a time. Based on these results, we anticipate that the polar diatom F. cylindrus will be unaffected by changes in temperature and pH within the range expected by the end of the century. In each simulated scenario, the variation in growth rates among the strains was larger than the variation observed due to the whole range of changes in either pH or temperature. Climate change may therefore not affect the species as such, but may lead to changes in the population structure of the species, with the strains exhibiting high phenotypic plasticity, in terms of temperature and pH tolerance towards future conditions, dominating the population.

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We present records of biogenic opal percentage and burial rate in 12 piston cores from the Atlantic and Indian sectors of the Southern Ocean. These records provide a detailed, quantitative description of changing patterns of opal deposition over the last 450 kyr. The striking regional coherence of these records suggests that dissolution in the deep sea and sediment pore waters does not obscure the surface productivity signal, and therefore these opal time series can be used in combination with other surface water tracers to make inferences about the chemistry and circulation of the Southern Ocean under different global climate conditions. Three broad depositional patterns can be distinguished. Northernmost records (39°-42°S latitude) are characterized by enhanced opal burial during glacial periods and strong 41 kyr periodicity. Records from cores just north of the present Antarctic Polar Front (46°-49°S) show even larger increases in opal burial rate during glacial intervals, but have variance concentrated in the 100 and 23 kyr bands. Southernmost records (51°-55°S) are completely out of phase with those to the north, with greatly reduced opal burial rates during glacial periods. Taken as a whole, the opal records show no evidence for the increased total Antarctic productivity predicted by recent geochemical models of atmospheric CO2 variability. The areal expansion of Southern Ocean sea ice over the present zone of high siliceous productivity provides one plausible explanation for the glacial-interglacial opal patterns. The excess silica not taken up in this zone during glacial periods would contribute to greater nutrient availability and thus higher productivity in the subantarctic region. However, local circulation changes may act to modify this basic signal, possibly accounting for the observed differences in the opal variance spectra.

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New radiogenic isotope and trace element data are presented for the volcanic sequences along 600 km of the active Izu-Bonin arc, the Oligocene Izu arc, and their associated rift basins. As with many intra-oceanic island arcs, the Pliocene-Recent Izu-Bonin frontal-arc lavas are highly depleted in Zr, Nb and the rare-earth elements relative to typical mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB), indicating that the mantle wedge source has undergone a previous episode of melting. Ratios between these elements (such as Nb/Zr and La/Sm), as well as 143Nd/144Nd, do not vary significantly along the length of the frontal-arc. These parameters suggest that each of the arc volcanoes is derived from similar melt fractions of the mantle wedge. However, Ba/Zr, Ba/Rb and 87Sr/86Sr increase along the frontal-arc to the north. This leads us to propose that a variable enrichment in Ba and radiogenic Sr is superimposed on the mantle wedge. Sr-Nd and Pb-Nd isotope variation indicate that both Sr and Pb become more radiogenic after fluid addition. However, Pb isotope ratios do not correlate with increases in Pb concentration or ratios such as Ba/Zr and Nb/Pb. In other words, the Pb isotopic composition of the arc lavas appears to be independent of the amount of Pb introduced by subduction fluids into the mantle source. This buffering of Pb isotopes along the frontal-arc means that the isotopic composition of the lavas is indistinguishable from that of the fluid. Isotopic mixing models presented for the arc are only illustrative of the many plausible combinations of components and quantities. Despite this, we are able to determine that the mantle wedge has isotopic characteristics similar to Indian Ocean MORB, and that the subduction-fluid solute is primarily derived from subducted oceanic basalt with a <2% contribution from subducted sediment. Lavas in the Oligocene Izu arc and fore-arc basin were derived from a mantle wedge of similar composition to the active arc. Despite levels of Pb enrichment comparable to those of the modern arc, the Pb isotopes of the Oligocene volcanics indicate a lower sediment input into the melting region.