4 resultados para Linear programming models

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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Data compiled within the IMPENSO project. The Impact of ENSO on Sustainable Water Management and the Decision-Making Community at a Rainforest Margin in Indonesia (IMPENSO), http://www.gwdg.de/~impenso, was a German-Indonesian research project (2003-2007) that has studied the impact of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) on the water resources and the agricultural production in the PALU RIVER watershed in Central Sulawesi. ENSO is a climate variability that causes serious droughts in Indonesia and other countries of South-East Asia. The last ENSO event occurred in 1997. As in other regions, many farmers in Central Sulawesi suffered from reduced crop yields and lost their livestock. A better prediction of ENSO and the development of coping strategies would help local communities mitigate the impact of ENSO on rural livelihoods and food security. The IMPENSO project deals with the impact of the climate variability ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) on water resource management and the local communities in the Palu River watershed of Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The project consists of three interrelated sub-projects, which study the local and regional manifestation of ENSO using the Regional Climate Models REMO and GESIMA (Sub-project A), quantify the impact of ENSO on the availability of water for agriculture and other uses, using the distributed hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Sub-project B), and analyze the socio-economic impact and the policy implications of ENSO on the basis of a production function analysis, a household vulnerability analysis, and a linear programming model (Sub-project C). The models used in the three sub-projects will be integrated to simulate joint scenarios that are defined in collaboration with local stakeholders and are relevant for the design of coping strategies.

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Total organic carbon (TOC) was analyzed on four transects along 140°W in 1992 using a high temperature combustion/discrete injection (HTC/DI) analyzer. For two of the transects, the analyses were conducted on-board ship. Mixed-layer concentrations of organic carbon varied from about 80 µM C at either end of the transect (12°N and 12°S) to about 60 µM C at the equator. Total organic carbon concentrations decreased rapidly below the mixed-layer to about 38-40 µM C at 1000 m across the transect. Little variation was observed below this depth; deep water concentrations below 2000 m were virtually monotonic at about 36 µM C. Repeat measurements made on subsequent cruises consistently found the same concentrations at 1000 m or deeper, but substantial variations were observed in the mixed-layer and the upper water column above 400 m depth. Linear mixing models of total organic carbon versus sigmaT exhibited zones of organic carbon formation and consumption. TOC was found to be inversely correlated with apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) in the region between the mixed-layer and the oxygen minimum. In the mixed-layer, TOC concentrations varied seasonally. Part of the variations in TOC at the equator was driven by changes in the upwelling rate in response to variations in physical forcing related to an El Niño and to the passage of tropical instability waves. TOC export fluxes, calculated from simple box models, averaged 8±4 mmol C/m**2/day at the equator and also varied seasonally. These export fluxes account for 50-75% of the total carbon deficit and are consistent with other estimates and model predictions.

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Aim: To investigate shell size variation among gastropod faunas of fossil and recent long-lived European lakes and discuss potential underlying processes. Location: 23 long-lived lakes of the Miocene to Recent of Europe. Methods: Based on a dataset of 1412 species of both fossil and extant lacustrine gastropods, we assessed differences in shell size in terms of characteristics of the faunas (species richness, degree of endemism, differences in family composition) and the lakes (surface area, latitude and longitude of lake centroid, distance to closest neighbouring lake) using multiple and linear regression models. Because of a strong species-area relationship, we used resampling to determine whether any observed correlation is driven by that relationship. Results: The regression models indicated size range expansion rather than unidirectional increase or decrease as the dominant pattern of size evolution. The multiple regression models for size range and maximum and minimum size were statistically significant, while the model with mean size was not. Individual contributions and linear regressions indicated species richness and lake surface area as best predictors for size changes. Resampling analysis revealed no significant effects of species richness on the observed patterns. The correlations are comparable across families of different size classes, suggesting a general pattern. Main conclusions: Among the chosen variables, species richness and lake surface area are the most robust predictors of shell size in long-lived lake gastropods. Although the most outstanding and attractive examples for size evolution in lacustrine gastropods derive from lakes with extensive durations, shell size appears to be independent of the duration of the lake as well as longevity of a species. The analogue of long-lived lakes as 'evolutionary islands' does not hold for developments of shell size because different sets of parameters predict size changes.