8 resultados para Lee-Carter model

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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The first radiocarbon chronology for sediments of the Argentine basin has been determined using accelerator mass spectrometer (AMS) analyses of 54 total organic carbon samples from four box and two piston cores collected from the downstream and upstream sides of two central Argentine Basin mudwaves. Throughout the Holocene, sediment from the geomorphically defined upstream side of each wave accumulated at rates of 30 to 105 cm/1000 years. Sediments from the downstream side of each wave accumulated at rates of 2 to 10 cm/1000 years in the late and early Holocene, while the mid Holocene is characterized by sedimentation rates less than 1.0 cm/1000 years. During the mid-Holocene, increased aridity reduced chemical weathering and the flow of the rivers draining to the continental shelf, causing a concomitant decrease in fine-grained terrigenous input to the basin as evidenced by decreased sedimentation rates, lower N/C ratios, and depleted delta13Corg values. It is estimated that all of the organic carbon deposited in the central basin during the mid-Holocene was of a marine origin. During the late and early Holocene, however, approximately 35% of the organic carbon deposited was of terrestrial origin. Bottom water flow speeds in the late Holocene were estimated using a lee-wave model and found to average 14 cm/s. This estimate is comparable to 10 cm/s mean and 15-20 cm/s maximum flow speeds measured by current meters deployed within the basin. Flow speeds in the Argentine Basin were 10% higher than today from 8000 to 2000 B.P., and are consistent with a general invigoration of thermohaline circulation that began between 9000 and 8000 B.P. It is proposed that the introduction of warm, salty Indian Ocean water into the northern North Atlantic at 9000 B.P. was the mechanism that provided the excess salt needed to stabilize the North Atlantic Deep Water thermohaline circulation system in its present mode.

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The importance of renewable energies for the European electricity market is growing rapidly. This presents transmission grids and the power market in general with new challenges which stem from the higher spatiotemporal variability of power generation. This uncertainty is due to the fact that renewable power production results from weather phenomena, thus making it difficult to plan and control. We present a sensitivity study of a total solar eclipse in central Europe in March. The weather in Germany and Europe was modeled using the German Weather Service's local area models COSMO-DE and COSMO-EU, respectively (http://www.cosmo-model.org/). The simulations were performed with and without considering a solar eclipse for the following 3 situations: 1. An idealized, clear-sky situation for the entire model area (Europe, COSMO-EU) 2. A real weather situation with mostly cloudy skies (Germany, COSMO-DE) 3. A real weather situation with mostly clear skies (Germany, COSMO-DE) The data should help to evaluate the effects of a total solar eclipse on the weather in the planetary boundary layer. The results show that a total solar eclipse has significant effects particularly on the main variables for renewable energy production, such as solar irradiation and temperature near the ground.

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Flow transverse bedforms (ripples and dunes) are ubiquitous in rivers and coastal seas. Local hydrodynamics and transport conditions depend on the size and geometry of these bedforms, as they constitute roughness elements at the bed. Bedform influence on flow energy must be considered for the understanding of flow dynamics, and in the development and application of numerical models. Common estimations or predictors of form roughness (friction factors) are based mostly on data of steep bedforms (with angle-of-repose lee slopes), and described by highly simplified bedform dimensions (heights and lengths). However, natural bedforms often are not steep, and differ in form and hydraulic effect relative to idealised bedforms. Based on systematic numerical model experiments, this study shows how the hydraulic effect of bedforms depends on the flow structure behind bedforms, which is determined by the bedform lee side angle, aspect ratio and relative height. Simulations reveal that flow separation behind bedform crests and, thus, a hydraulic effect is induced at lee side angles steeper than 11 to 18° depending on relative height, and that a fully developed flow separation zone exists only over bedforms with a lee side angle steeper than 24°. Furthermore, the hydraulic effect of bedforms with varying lee side angle is evaluated and a reduction function to common friction factors is proposed. A function is also developed for the Nikuradse roughness (k s), and a new equation is proposed which directly relates k s to bedform relative height, aspect ratio and lee side angle.

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Bedforms such as dunes and ripples are ubiquitous in rivers and coastal seas, and commonly described as triangular shapes from which height and length are calculated to estimate hydrodynamic and sediment dynamic parameters. Natural bedforms, however, present a far more complicated morphology; the difference between natural bedform shape and the often assumed triangular shape is usually neglected, and how this may affect the flow is unknown. This study investigates the shapes of natural bedforms and how they influence flow and shear stress, based on four datasets extracted from earlier studies on two rivers (the Rio Paraná in Argentina, and the Lower Rhine in The Netherlands). The most commonly occurring morphological elements are a sinusoidal stoss side made of one segment and a lee side made of two segments, a gently sloping upper lee side and a relatively steep (6 to 21°) slip face. A non-hydrostatic numerical model, set up using Delft3D, served to simulate the flow over fixed bedforms with various morphologies derived from the identified morphological elements. Both shear stress and turbulence increase with increasing slip face angle and are only marginally affected by the dimensions and positions of the upper and lower lee side. The average slip face angle determined from the bed profiles is 14°, over which there is no permanent flow separation. Shear stress and turbulence above natural bedforms are higher than above a flat bed but much lower than over the often assumed 30° lee side angle.

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Today the deep western boundary current (DWBC) east of New Zealand is the most important route for deep water entering the Pacific Ocean. Large-scale changes in deep water circulation patterns are thought to have been associated with the development of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) close to the main source of bottom water for the DWBC. Here we reconstruct the changing speed of the southwest Pacific DWBC during the middle Miocene from ~15.5-12.5 Ma, a period of significant global ice accumulation associated with EAIS growth. Sortable silt mean grain sizes from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1123 reveal variability in the speed of the Pacific inflow on the timescale of the 41 kyr orbital obliquity cycle. Similar orbital period flow changes have recently been demonstrated for the Pleistocene epoch. Collectively, these observations suggest that a strong coupling between changes in the speed of the deep Pacific inflow and high-latitude climate forcing may have been a persistent feature of the global thermohaline circulation system for at least the past 15 Myr. Furthermore, long-term changes in flow speed suggest an intensification of the DWBC under an inferred increase in Southern Component Water production. This occurred at the same time as decreasing Tethyan outflow and major EAIS growth between ~15.5 and 13.5 Ma. These results provide evidence that a major component of the deep thermohaline circulation was associated with the middle Miocene growth of the EAIS and support the view that this time interval represents an important step in the development of the Neogene icehouse climate.